Redistricting in CA and OH

1. Redistricting in CA and OH Summary of Findings from Research Among Voters in Ohio and California

2. Methodology

3. Survey Methodology Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey that was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers between November 8 and November 10, 2005. The survey reached a total of 600 registered voters in Ohio who indicated that they voted in the 2005 election and 800 registered voters in California who indicated that they voted in the 2005 election. Telephone numbers for the sample were drawn randomly from a statewide voter file screening for voters likely to turn out in November 2005. The data were weighted by party, age, race, and the actual voting results. The margin of error for the Ohio survey is +/- 4% and for the California survey is +/- 3.5% .

4. Key Findings

5. In both states: • Voters support the underlying principles of redistricting reform. • Both redistricting initiatives failed for different reasons due to each state’s unique political dynamics. • Both initiatives were viewed as partisan—there was a huge partisan split in the vote. • A key to both losses was the inability to convince independents.

6. In California: • Efforts to grab voters’ attention did work, nearly half of “No” voters support redistricting reform in principle. • Two-thirds of California voters think the redistricting system needs to be changed. • The effort lost support when specific weak components were picked apart and redistricting was connected to an unpopular Governor and his other proposed initiatives.

7. In Ohio: • In contrast to California, Ohio voters were not engaged—they did not see the need for this reform relative to other priorities. Only the most liberal Democrats supported. • Voters got far less information on this initiative than in California—more said they got “not enough” than said they got “too much.” • To the extent they did hear about it, they perceived the whole effort to be focused on politics rather than their priorities. • Voters in Ohio are also cautious about initiatives which makes it easier to move voters to “No” in the end.

8. In both states: • Voters did not see redistricting as a top priority. They do not see a connection to their daily lives. • Voters do not easily make the connection from their frustrations with government and politics to the solution of redistricting. • Voters do not tend to see redistricting reform as a solution to corruption. However, they can (and many do) see it as improving fairness and accountability.

9. Moving forward: • The broad support for core principles of redistricting reform indicates that successful reform is possible. However, the dynamics of the initiative process in these two states were detrimental in 2005. • Raising the saliency of redistricting reform is a critical and very challenging task. In California, thanks to a well-funded effort and a celebrity governor, most voters at least came to understand what the problem is. • However, convincing voters to support a particular reform scheme is yet another hurdle. A determined opposition can and will poke holes in any plan because it tends to be complicated. • The strongest themes speak to the conflict of interest of politician drawing lines, voters should choose their representatives instead of being chosen, and lines should keep communities together.

10. Keys to future success • To succeed, future reform efforts must: • Build on shared values, such as the belief that voters should choose their representatives rather than politicians choosing their voters, • Raise the saliency of reform as the key to making politicians accountable and government responsive to the people, • Have a well-funded, properly targeted communications plan, • Test carefully for weaknesses and potential attacks on the specifics of the reform plan, and develop effective responses to those attacks, • Be perceived as a grassroots, non-partisan reform effort rather than a partisan power-grab, • Be aimed at goals that voters share, such as accountability, fair elections, and keeping communities together, • Use independent validators including having the League of Women Voters visibly on board.

11. Context:Voters in Ohio and California are feeling negative about their state and state government.

12. By a 2 to 1 margin, voters in Ohio are solidly pessimistic about the direction of their state. Do you think things in Ohio are generally moving in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

13. Voters in California are even more pessimistic about the direction of their state. Do you think things in California are generally moving in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

14. California and Ohio voters are feeling distrustful of the federal government. Ohio California People have different ideas about the government in Washington. How much of the time do you thinkyou can trust the government in Washington today to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? * Denotes split sample

15. State government fares even worse particularly in California. Ohio California People have different ideas about the state government. How much of the time do you thinkyou can trust the government in [Ohio/California] today to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? * Denotes split sample

16. The 2005 Election:California voters were relatively more enthusiastic and informed about redistricting reform than Ohio voters.

17. Enthusiasm for ballot initiatives did not drive Ohio voters to the polls. Thinking about Tuesday’s election, how much did your support or opposition to ballot initiatives or proposition questions in this election motivate you to vote? Was it ROTATE _ extremely motivating, _very motivating, _somewhat motivating, _only a little motivating, or _not at all motivating? 37%

18. However, voters in California were very motivated by ballot initiatives. Thinking about Tuesday’s election, how much did your support or opposition to ballot initiatives or proposition questions in this election motivate you to vote? Was it ROTATE _ extremely motivating, _very motivating, _somewhat motivating, _only a little motivating, or _not at all motivating? 67%

19. Twice as many Ohio voters felt they didn’t have enough information compared to Californians. Thinking about the ballot initiatives in this election. Overall, thinking about everything you heard and read, would you say you saw or received TOO MUCH information about these initiatives, NOT ENOUGH information, or about the RIGHT AMOUNT?

20. Knowing who backs or opposes an initiative is important to voters, even more intensely so for Californians. California Ohio Some voters say it is helpful to know who is FOR or AGAINST a ballot initiative. How about you? As a voter, is it VERY helpful to know this, SOMEWHAT helpful, A LITTLE helpful, or NOT AT ALL helpful?

21. Awareness of the redistricting initiative was significantly higher in California. Ohio California From what you remember, do you know if there was an initiative on the ballot designed to reform the way legislative and Congressional district lines are drawn in [California/Ohio]?

22. The Redistricting Ballot:The initiatives lost in both states, partly due to lack of support from independents.

23. Issue 4 was rejected by Ohio voters. -40% Now I would like to ask you about one of the measures that was on the ballot in Ohio. State Issue 4 asked voters if the State Constitution should be amended to reform Ohio's election system by creating a five-member Ohio Independent Redistricting Commission to draw the geographic boundaries that determine who will represent you in Congress and the State Legislature. Did you vote _Yes, in favor of State Issue 4 or _No, against State Issue 4, OR did you not vote on this measure?

24. Democrats were split and the initiative lost heavily among independent voters. Republicans were solidly opposed. DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans -76% -2% -46%

25. Turning out infrequent voters would not have helped Issue 4. Infrequent voters were even more opposed. FrequentVotersInfrequent Voters* -38% -56% *Note: Smaller sample size for infrequent voters.

26. Liberal Democrats drove the Yes vote. Lib. DemsMod./Con. DemsLib./Mod. RepsCon. Rep

27. Voters in Ohio were mostly unsure of who was behind Issue 4, but most likely to mention the Democratic Party and like-minded interest groups. 29% 17% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Who do you think was MOST in favor of this initiative on redistricting. Was it…..

28. California voters rejected Prop. 77. -20% Now I would like to ask you about one of the measures that was on the ballot in California. Proposition 77, asked voters if the State Constitution’s process for redistricting California’s senate, assembly, congressional, and Board of Equalization districts should be amended. It requires a three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. Did you vote _Yes, in favor of Proposition 77or _No, against Proposition 77, OR did you not vote on this measure?

29. In California it was Democrats solidly against with Independents more split. Prop. 77 got strong support from Republicans. DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans -80% +42% -12%

30. Californians saw Gov. Schwarzenegger and the Republican Party as in favor of redistricting, but many also mention labor unions. Very few mention citizen reform groups. 38% 23% 17% 9% 4% 3% 3% 2% Who do you think was MOST in favor of this initiative on redistricting. Was it…..

31. Three quarters of Ohio voters decided their vote on redistricting in the last few weeks of the campaign. 7% 15% 35% 19% 14% 7% About how long ago did you decide how you would vote on Issue 4 -- more than two months ago, within the past two months, within the past few weeks, within the past week, within the past two or three days, or on Election Day?

32. In contrast, half of California voters decided two months or more out. 24% 25% 30% 12% 4% 4% About how long ago did you decide how you would vote on Proposition 77 -- more than two months ago, within the past two months, within the past few weeks, within the past week, within the past two or three days, or on Election Day?

33. Late deciders in both states overwhelmingly opposed redistricting. VOTERS WHO DECIDED IN THE LAST WEEK ONLY

34. The Other Initiatives:The initiative agendas failed in both states.

35. Other Ohio initiatives tested • State Issue 2, asked voters if the State Constitution should be amended to permit voters to cast ballots by mail or in person at an appropriate county board of elections up to 35 days before an election without stating a reason for voting early. • State Issue 3 asked voters if the State Constitution should be amended to limit campaign contributions from individuals to $2,000 to statewide candidates and $1,000 to legislative candidates. The current limit is $10,000 per person. The amendment would also ban political contributions from corporations. • State Issue 5 asked voters if the State Constitution should be amended to change the way elections are administered in Ohio, by creating a bi-partisan State Board of Elections Supervisors to oversee elections and appoint an independent state director of elections.

36. Voters rejected the Ohio reforms across the board.

37. Being on board with redistricting reform was linked to supporting the other initiatives. “YES” ON ISSUE 4 VOTERS ONLY

38. Other California initiatives tested • Proposition 73 prohibits abortion for an unemancipated minor until 48 hours after the physician notifies the minor’s parent or guardian, except in a medical emergency or with parental waiver. • Proposition 74 increases the probationary period for public school teachers from two years to five years. and modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss a teaching employee who receives two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. • Proposition 75 prohibits using public employee union dues for political contributions without individual employees' prior consent. • Proposition 76 limits state spending to the prior year’s level plus three previous years’ average revenue growth. It changes state minimum school funding requirements under Proposition 98. It permits the governor, under specified circumstances, to reduce budget appropriations of the governor’s choosing.

39. Voters in California rejected all the initiatives on the ballot.

40. As in Ohio, supporters of the redistricting initiative supported the other propositions. “YES” ON PROP. 77 VOTERS ONLY

41. Reasons for the vote:With the vote underperforming how voters feel about redistricting, other factors led to its defeat.

42. Nearly half of Ohio voters considered the reform as part of a package. Voters in California did not. Some voters in Ohio considered State Issue 4 as part of a package that included State Issues 2, 3, and 5 and voted for or against the whole package. How about you? Did you consider these measures as a package and voted the same on all of them? Some voters in California considered Proposition 77 as part of a package supported by Governor Schwarzenegger and voted for or against the whole package. How about you? Did you consider the propositions supported by the Governor as a package and vote the same on all of them?

43. Nearly half of the “No” voters in California say they support redistricting reform, but did not want to vote with the Governor. NO VOTERS ONLY Ohio California Do you agree or disagree with this statement, I support redistricting reform but I did not want to vote with the Democrats in Ohio. Do you agree or disagree with this statement, I support redistricting reform but I did not want to vote with the Governor in California.

44. In California, a majority of voters support reform in principle. In Ohio they do not. Do you agree or disagree with this statement, I support redistricting reform but I did not want to vote [with the Democrats in Ohio/ with the Governor in California].

45. Perceptions of Redistricting in California and Ohio:Californians show more concern for redistricting.

46. Just 30% of Ohio voters ranked redistricting high on their list of issues. Out of all the initiatives and propositions on the ballot in this election, was Issue 4 regarding the redistricting process, the SINGLE most important issue on the ballot to you personally, one of the top TWO or THREE most important to you, just somewhat important, a little important, or not very important at all to you? 30%

47. Redistricting did not rank high across partisan groups in Ohio. Out of all the initiatives and propositions on the ballot in this election, was Issue 4 regarding the redistricting process, the SINGLE most important issue on the ballot to you personally, one of the top TWO or THREE most important to you, just somewhat important, a little important, or not very important at all to you?

48. Redistricting was more salient to California voters. Out of all the initiatives and propositions on the ballot in this election, was Proposition 77 regarding the redistricting process, the SINGLE most important issue on the ballot to you personally, one of the top TWO or THREE most important to you, just somewhat important, a little important, or not very important at all to you? 45%

49. In California, Republicans put a high priority on redistricting reform.

50. While California voters are more intensely dissatisfied with the status quo on redistricting, a majority in both states say changes are needed. 66% 53% Ohio California Do you think the way the governor and legislature go about drawing legislative district lines in [Ohio/California] is in need of major changes, some changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is?