Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan
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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan. Pei-Fen Lee. North. South. North. South. Roads. 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated cover. Elevation vs. Latitude. Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients.

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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan

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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health)in Taiwan

Pei-Fen Lee


North

South

North

South

Roads

36000 Km2

68% vegetated cover


Elevation vs. Latitude

  • Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients


Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring

  • Long-term

    • Species distribution database

    • Environmental database

    • Species distribution models

    • Future projection from IPCC data

    • Change in species distribution

  • Short-term

    • Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)


Finch-billed Bulbul(白環鸚嘴鵯)

Species distribution data


Species Distribution Models

  • Logistic regression

  • Discriminant function analysis

  • Artificial neural network (ANN)

  • Cummulative distribution function

  • Genetic algorithm(GARP)

  • MaxEnt


From Occurrence to Probability

White-eared Sibia(白耳畫眉)


Presence Maps

Bufomelanosticus(黑眶蟾蜍)

Microhylainomata(史丹吉氏小雨蛙)


Climate Change Scenario

  • RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid)

    • CO2 concentration expected to be doubled

  • IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid)

  • Species

    • Breeding birds (117 species, 75%)

    • Amphibians (24 species, 73%)

    • Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)


Climate Change Scenario

Temperature:RSM2

Precipitation:RSM2


IPCC data

Annual mean

temperature (˚C)


Annual Total

Precipitation (mm)


Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest speciesStatus: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide


Breeding (Apr. to Sep.)

Wintering

Source: BirdLife International


Fairy Pitta: mean temperature

Mean: 22.3°C

Range: 16~26°C

n=514

20-25°C98%


Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

CCS - B2

2020

2050

2100

20-25°C

Suitable


Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

CMA - A2

2020

2050

2100

20-25°C


2020

Current

2100

2050

Taiwan Yuhina:change in distributionduetoclimatechange

  • Reduced suitable habitat

  • Moving toward higher elevation

  • Dramaticchangebetween2050and2100

Suitable


Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina

Endemic Birds

Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei


Increasing-distribution:Taiwan Hwamei

Decreasing-distribution:Taiwan Yuhina

2 species

15 species


Breeding Birds: change in species richness

Current

Under RSM2

In 2100


Breeding birds: change in species richness

Decrease in low-elevation

& mid-elevation

Increase in high-elevation


Amphibians: change in species richness

Current RSM2


  • Amphibians: change in species richness

  • Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution

  • Fragmentation


Freshwater Fish: change in richness

RSM2

Current


Freshwater FishNegative impact: Low-mid elevationPositive impact: High elevation


Monitoring from 1922 to 2011

3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park


Breeding Bird Monitoring

1992, 2006 & 2009-2011


Vegetation types


Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009

High-elevation species

Mid-elevation species


Population Trend

  • Density

    • Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species

    • Uncertain: 5

    • Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species

Streak-throated Fulvetta

Wren

Formosan Firecrest


Upper distribution limit (m)


Changes between 1992 and 2009


Community pattern

  • Biodiversity increase in high elevation


Temperature Change

Summer

Winter


  • Decrease in snow days

    • 1992– 40 days

    • 2006– 11 days


Dongsha Atoll National Park

South China Sea


Climate Change Impacts

  • Underclimatechange,many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area

  • Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase


Climate Change Impacts

  • Short-termchangeobservedinYushanNational Park issimilartothosepredictedinlong-termdistributiontrend

  • Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture


Climate Change Impacts

  • Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas

    • Reduced species richness

    • More pests and unwanted grass species

    • Potential public health problem

      • E.g., dengue fever


Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan

2002


Dengue and Precipitation

2002/6/1


Dengue case distribution

Only concentrated in certain districts


Dengue and Urban Development

  • Older community

  • Rural region

  • City and county junction

  • Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas


Bio-indicators for Climate Change

  • Different species groups

    • Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle

  • Different ecosystems (spatial)

    • Urban, coastal, high mountain

  • Different temporal scales

    • Month, season, year, decade, …


Barnacle distribution

21 species


nMDS plot


Barnacle distribution

Species occurrence

Abundance


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