Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan
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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan. Pei-Fen Lee. North. South. North. South. Roads. 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated cover. Elevation vs. Latitude. Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients.

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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan

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Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health)in Taiwan

Pei-Fen Lee


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

North

South

North

South

Roads

36000 Km2

68% vegetated cover


Elevation vs latitude

Elevation vs. Latitude

  • Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients


Long term prediction and short term monitoring

Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring

  • Long-term

    • Species distribution database

    • Environmental database

    • Species distribution models

    • Future projection from IPCC data

    • Change in species distribution

  • Short-term

    • Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)


Finch billed bulbul

Finch-billed Bulbul(白環鸚嘴鵯)

Species distribution data


Species distribution models

Species Distribution Models

  • Logistic regression

  • Discriminant function analysis

  • Artificial neural network (ANN)

  • Cummulative distribution function

  • Genetic algorithm(GARP)

  • MaxEnt


From occurrence to probability

From Occurrence to Probability

White-eared Sibia(白耳畫眉)


Presence maps

Presence Maps

Bufomelanosticus(黑眶蟾蜍)

Microhylainomata(史丹吉氏小雨蛙)


Climate change scenario

Climate Change Scenario

  • RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid)

    • CO2 concentration expected to be doubled

  • IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid)

  • Species

    • Breeding birds (117 species, 75%)

    • Amphibians (24 species, 73%)

    • Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)


Climate change scenario1

Climate Change Scenario

Temperature:RSM2

Precipitation:RSM2


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

IPCC data

Annual mean

temperature (˚C)


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Annual Total

Precipitation (mm)


Fairy pitta pitta nympha low elevation forest species status vulnerable 10 000 worldwide

Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest speciesStatus: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Breeding (Apr. to Sep.)

Wintering

Source: BirdLife International


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Fairy Pitta: mean temperature

Mean: 22.3°C

Range: 16~26°C

n=514

20-25°C98%


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

CCS - B2

2020

2050

2100

20-25°C

Suitable


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

CMA - A2

2020

2050

2100

20-25°C


Taiwan yuhina change in distribution due to climate change

2020

Current

2100

2050

Taiwan Yuhina:change in distributionduetoclimatechange

  • Reduced suitable habitat

  • Moving toward higher elevation

  • Dramaticchangebetween2050and2100

Suitable


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina

Endemic Birds

Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Increasing-distribution:Taiwan Hwamei

Decreasing-distribution:Taiwan Yuhina

2 species

15 species


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Breeding Birds: change in species richness

Current

Under RSM2

In 2100


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Breeding birds: change in species richness

Decrease in low-elevation

& mid-elevation

Increase in high-elevation


Amphibians change in species richness

Amphibians: change in species richness

Current RSM2


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

  • Amphibians: change in species richness

  • Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution

  • Fragmentation


Freshwater fish change in richness

Freshwater Fish: change in richness

RSM2

Current


Freshwater fish negative impact low mid elevation positive impact high elevation

Freshwater FishNegative impact: Low-mid elevationPositive impact: High elevation


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Monitoring from 1922 to 2011

3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Breeding Bird Monitoring

1992, 2006 & 2009-2011


Vegetation types

Vegetation types


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009

High-elevation species

Mid-elevation species


Population trend

Population Trend

  • Density

    • Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species

    • Uncertain: 5

    • Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species

Streak-throated Fulvetta

Wren

Formosan Firecrest


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Upper distribution limit (m)


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Changes between 1992 and 2009


Community pattern

Community pattern

  • Biodiversity increase in high elevation


Temperature change

Temperature Change

Summer

Winter


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

  • Decrease in snow days

    • 1992– 40 days

    • 2006– 11 days


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Dongsha Atoll National Park

South China Sea


Climate change impacts

Climate Change Impacts

  • Underclimatechange,many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area

  • Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase


Climate change impacts1

Climate Change Impacts

  • Short-termchangeobservedinYushanNational Park issimilartothosepredictedinlong-termdistributiontrend

  • Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture


Climate change impacts2

Climate Change Impacts

  • Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas

    • Reduced species richness

    • More pests and unwanted grass species

    • Potential public health problem

      • E.g., dengue fever


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan

2002


Dengue and precipitation

Dengue and Precipitation

2002/6/1


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Dengue case distribution

Only concentrated in certain districts


Dengue and urban development

Dengue and Urban Development

  • Older community

  • Rural region

  • City and county junction

  • Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas


Bio indicators for climate change

Bio-indicators for Climate Change

  • Different species groups

    • Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle

  • Different ecosystems (spatial)

    • Urban, coastal, high mountain

  • Different temporal scales

    • Month, season, year, decade, …


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Barnacle distribution

21 species


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

nMDS plot


Impact of climate change on biodiversity and public health in taiwan

Barnacle distribution

Species occurrence

Abundance


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