Hard and Soft Considerations in Procurement Planning in the IDF

1. Hard and Soft Considerations in Procurement Planning in the IDF Example through medical supplies

2. Introduction • The IDF, like any military, maintains large inventories of munitions for a rainy day. • How much ammunition of each type should be procured? • This is a tour of the decision making process through the prism of “soft-hard” problems and analysis.

3. Ice-Cream Cone Model • One of the fundamental questions: What do we need to win the war? • The required answer: • 32,745 tank rounds, • 714 JDAM, • etc.

4. Basic Method • Benchmark scenario • Consumption model • Operational availability considerations • Meet reality ($)

5. The Planner’s Advantage scenario • Israel’s disadvantage - bad neighbors. • The planners’ advantage - know your enemy

6. The Scenario is scenario • A possible depiction of a future war. • Details blue forces deployment and basic action (defence, offence), at the division level - division fighting days (DFDs). • Serves as a common reference to all services.

7. How to choose a scenario scenario • Not a “hard” question, but a difficult one. • Span many possible futures • Zero-order estimation: Variations on order of opponents and duration of each stage. • Not too strenuous, or budget constraints will render results of the analysis irrelevant. A B C

8. Initial Problem Break-up • Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured in combat. • Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured at the bases. • Medical kits requirement for units.

9. Armoured Infantry Combat Consumption model model • How many medical supply kits does a division need per day? • How many soldiers are injured in a brigade, per day? Quite the gummy-bear Still a gummy-bear

10. Where do we start? • Go back in time for a straw to cling to • In 1973, the answer was roughly 50, of which about a quarter were various support troops.

11. Adjust for the Present • Scenario adjustments (inherent in the process) • Technology adjustments • i.e. addition of flak vest • Tactical adjustments • i.e. increased fortifications

12. 20 664 Introduction of Flak Vest 20 + 24% 76% 20+ Derive Upper bound: If vest does not reduce injury rate: Expect same injury ratio in both columns So the vests spared 20 injuries, And reduced 3% of injuries Fiddled 1982 data for infantry soldiers

13. Points to Ponder • How do we know all important adjustments are accounted for? • At what point does adjusted 1973 data lose its relevance?

14. Consumption at Bases Develop threat scenario: • types • numbers • timing of rocket attacks on various bases.

15. Effects of Rocket Attack • Result of each rocket salvo determined by • Accuracy and lethality of rockets • Number, dispersion and behavior of people • Lethality determined by engineering studies and warhead experiments

16. Unit stocks • Guarantee X days of operational self-sufficiency. • Daily requirement - from precise model • U = XD Deeply analysed Loosely analysed

17. C Putting It All Together • Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured in combat. • Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured at the bases. • Medical kits requirement for units. U Sad fact (for the analyst): U >> C

18. Meet Reality • In most cases, other factors may be dominant: • Budget constraints • Supporting local industry • Lead time required to close gaps • Inter-service politics

19. Conclusion • Greater emphasis is placed on the “hard” elements of the equation, although the “soft” parts matter more. • Possible reasons: • We do what we are trained to • Numbers give a sense of “security” • Effort gives a sense of “credibility”