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Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme. Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council 15 February 2012. Overview of Forestry Activities and Case Studies. Alberta SRD: Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests (complete)

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Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

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  1. Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council 15 February 2012

  2. Overview of Forestry Activities and Case Studies • Alberta SRD: • Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests (complete) • Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture (ongoing) • Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch • Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB • Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of southeastern MB • Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service • Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment • Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply

  3. AB SRD: Literature Review • Report focused on Forest Fringe • Applies generally to southern boreal forests in the prairie region • Includes impacts on ecosystem services; risk assessment; and adaptation options

  4. AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the 1979-2010 Average (days)

  5. MB Conservation: Climate Change • Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to explore potential impacts of climate change on forest management in the Sandilands provincial forest (southeastern Manitoba). • The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the assessment. • The assessment will identify potential adaptation options and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be applied to other areas within the province. • SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to assess anticipated climate change impacts.

  6. MB Conservation: Climate Change Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for current and future time slices linked to maps

  7. MU 24

  8. Multiple Vulnerabilities of Saskatchewan’s Island Forests Under Climate Change

  9. What is LANDIS-II? • Broad scale landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances • Succession • Disturbance • Seed dispersal • Forest management • Carbon dynamics • Climate change affects Cohort Biomass Fire Insects Wind Harvest Spatially Interactive Landscape

  10. Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)

  11. Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)

  12. LANDIS – Future Fire

  13. Changes in Forest types Non-Forest Soft wood Hardwood Muskeg

  14. Wood Supply and Climate Change in the Island Forests • Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce estimates of annual biomass production (NPP) • Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood volume • Generated these estimate for current and future climate • Used these data to generate yield curves for main forest types – used in wood supply analysis • Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest management plan for the Island Forests

  15. Example yield curves for jack pine:Constant CO2

  16. Example yield curves for jack pine:Increasing CO2

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