Presentation Transcript

1. Wind Energy, Technology and Society

   Jeremy Firestone Director, Center for Carbon-free Power Integration Professor, Marine Policy and Legal Studies IUCN Academy July 2014
2. Outline Why Wind Societal Issues
3. Very Long Hangover Short Party … Caldeira and Wickett, 2003
4. Where is U.S. Fossil-fuel combustion derived CO2 coming from? From U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (EPA 2011), Table 5 and Figure 2-7, excluding 43 MMT assigned to US Territories (MMT Carbon = million metric tons) In US, Electricity ~40% of problem! Transportation ~33%
5. Why Wind? Domestic Energy Zero pollution and zero CO2 in operation The only very large renewable, cost-competitive way to produce electricity without CO2 ... Today Lowest cost of electricity in some areas, but at least initially higher cost offshore, initially
6. Global Installed Wind Capacity Source: www.gwec.net
7. Source: www.gwec.net
8. What about wind is controversial? Noise effects Wildlife effects Cultural landscape effects Inadequate engagement From perspective of communities Effect on competing uses Government support Cost Offshore only
9. Our Survey Work to Understand Social Dimensions Commercial-Scale Offshore Wind (OSW) Projects Cape Cod, Massachusetts (MA), 2005 Delaware (DE), 2006 DE and Cape Cod, MA 2009 US National Survey, 2008 and 2010 DE and Maryland (MD), 2014 Coastal Tourism Tourists to DE Beaches 2007 South Carolina (SC) to Cape Cod, MA (ongoing) Demonstration-scale OSW Projects and Community Wind Coastal DE and Atlantic City, NJ, 2013
10. Societal Issues Politics and Political Economy Procedural Justice Value of Information 4. Cultural Landscapes 5. Tradeoffs/Environmental Justice 6. Transformative Energy Economy
11. 1. Politics/Political EconomyWhy does the public believe there is no U.S. offshore wind?2008 National Survey (Jon Lilley, 2010)
12. 2. Procedural JusticeProcess Questions The wind project developer, [Cape Wind/BWW], has acted openly and transparently. The planning process has been fair. Local people have had a say in the planning process. □ Agree □ Somewhat agree □ Neither agree nor disagree □ Somewhat disagree □ Disagree □ Don’t know
13. Very strong correlation between support and positive feelings on three metrics Firestone, et al, 2012-2
14. 3. Value of InformationBelieved Negative Effects of Cape Wind Project pre and post EIA * Significant difference
15. 4. Cultural LandscapesCoastal Community Wind 2 MW wind turbine on University’s coastal campus in historic Lewes, Delaware (settled in 1600s) Owned in partnership with Gamesa (manufacturer) R&D platform Education Carbon-free energy to campus (and some to town)
16. 2013 Survey of Lewes Residents Attitude toward turbine 78% of residents positive 10% negative Look of turbine 82% like
17. Evaluation of the “Look” (ordered by percent in each) Socially-constructed rather than physical attributes
18. Sound 10% indicated they could hear turbine from home Distance 19% lived more than 1.6km Another 19% lived at least 1.2km Sound Bothersome? 23% found the sound bothersome 73% found it not bothersome
19. Interplay between auditory and other aspects Being bother by sound is correlated with: Belief that having a wind turbine in the community is not important Of those who are bothered by the sound: Two-thirds do not like how the wind turbine looks
20. Transformative Energy Economy Considering only those who are undecided (2009 survey)Are they more or less likely to support the local offshore wind project if that project was the first of 300 projects? Similar findings for supporters and opponents
21. jf@udel.eduwww.ocean.udel.edu/windpower www.carbonfree.udel.edu 373 ISE Lab
22. Process In each area under all three metrics, the difference between agree and disagree is significant at 1% level. Firestone, et al, 2012-2 (based on 2009 survey)
23. Understanding Tradeoffs (DE 2006):Sample Question For which option would you vote? I would vote for… □ Option A □ Option B □ Option C
24. Choice Modeling Based on the theory that the utility an individual derives from a good comes from the characteristics of that good rather than the good itself Lancaster (1966)
25. Offshore wind vs. coal or natural gas If same initial price 95% prefer offshore wind If wind $1-30 per month more for 3 years 91% prefer offshore wind Krueger, et al, 2011 (based on 2006 DE survey)
26. Annual external cost in perpetuity per household (by distance turbines from coast and HH location) Krueger, Parsons, Firestone, 2011 (2006 DE data) Miles from the Coast Wind farms are a disamenity; especially for ocean area residents BUT marginal benefits level off quickly, beginning around 6 miles Krueger, et al, 2011
27. Offshore wind compared to coal or gasas function of distance from shore: Coastal Residents Only Prefer wind if distance is greater than 1.03 miles from shore Krueger 2007