1 / 39

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 November 2009. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status

esperanza
Download Presentation

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 November 2009 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

  2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Northern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

  3. Highlights North America: Above average precipitation fell this past week across western Canada and the central and eastern U.S. Areas in the lower to middle Mississippi Valley experienced flooding during the past week. The GFS forecasts mostly dry weather across northern California and the eastern US, with above average precipitation forecast across the Mississippi Valley and the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming week. Mexico and Central America: Above average precipitation occurred over the past week across southern Mexico and much of Central America. Some areas in northern Mexico experienced a light freeze this past week. The GFS forecasts above average precipitation in Central America for the upcoming week, and some of this activity could be the result of tropical activity in the western Caribbean. Eurasia: Wet weather impacted the Middle East, while dry weather prevailed in southern Europe. The GFS forecasts dry conditions in Indochina, with above average precipitation forecast across southern India, eastern and western Europe and parts of the Philippines.

  4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. During the last 4-weeks (27 Sep – 31 Oct 2009), equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The amplitude of the MJO index has increased during the previous week, with some slight eastward propagation, indicating a potentially developing MJO signal in the tropics. The GEFS forecasts of the MJO index indicate a continued strengthening MJO index during the next several days, with a continued eastward propagation into the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

  6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North America West Africa East Asia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: MAY-OCT Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in central India, parts of eastern China and Indochina, and Indonesia (Borneo and Java). Above average rainfall has occurred in the Philippines due in part to tropical cyclone activity. During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over southwest US while near average rainfall has occurred over northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

  7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Northern Hemisphere Circulation C A A Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During the 7-day period (26 Oct – 1 Nov 2009), an anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation center was located over the Northern Atlantic and anticyclonic circulation centers were located in the northeast Pacific and eastern North America. • Below-average temperatures were observed over northern and western Russia and the Manchuria region in northern China, while above-average temperatures were observed over east-central Canada, the eastern US, western Europe, western Africa and eastern Asia.

  8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During the 7-day period (26 Oct - 1 Nov 2009), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the eastern and southeastern US, central America, northeast China into the northwestern Pacific, western Canada and the Middle East. (top panel red ovals). • During the 7 day period (27 Oct – 2 Nov 2009) precipitation was observed over many of the same areas, while dryness dominated much of southern Asia and northern Africa.

  9. North America • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

  10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, above average precipitation occurred over the central and eastern US, western Canada, and across southern Mexico; below average precipitation was observed over parts of northern California. Heavy rains this week over the lower and middle Mississippi valleys resulted in numerous areas of flooding in these areas.

  11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, precipitation was above average in western Canada, southern Mexico, the central US, and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US. Precipitation was below average in southern Alaska, northern California and the southeastern US.

  12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was above average in southwest Alaska, western Canada, northern California, the east central US, and southern Mexico. Precipitation was below average in the Alaskan panhandle, southwest US and Yucatan peninsula.

  13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are above average in the northwest US and central US and below normal in Florida. Recent heavy rain have improved long term precipitation deficits in north-central California.

  14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week, temperatures were seasonable over the Canadian Prairies, with above average temperatures over Ontario and Quebec. Low temperatures were in the -10 to -15 deg C range across most crop areas in western Canada and in the 5 to -5 deg C range in southeastern Canada. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

  15. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past 7 days, temperatures were below average across much of the southwest US, with above average temperatures over the eastern US. Minimum temperatures were below 30 degrees F in the Intermountain West, Rockies, upper Midwest, the western and northern Corn Belt and into northern New England. In Mexico, temperatures were below average over northern Mexico. Lows were generally in the single digits over northern Mexico, however, much of Chihuahua and northeast Sonora received their first freeze. Across southern Mexico, temperatures were slightly above average this past week with lows in the teens. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

  16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Oct 2009 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 above average rainfall is forecast for the Pacific Northwest, the western coast of Canada and central America. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over central America due to enhanced tropical activity. Near average precipitation is forecast for the western and central US, with drier than normal conditions forecast across the eastern US and western Mexico.

  17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Oct 2009 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 below average rainfall is predicted for western Mexico, central America, the Pacific Northwest and southern Alaska, with above average precipitation forecast for the southern US plains and the lower to middle Mississippi Valley. Near normal precipitation amounts are expected across much of Canada and for the west-central and eastern US.

  18. Forecast from 21 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct - 3 Nov 2009 Forecast from 28 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct - 3 Nov 2009 Observed 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: North America

  19. Mexico and Central America • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

  20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the past 7 days, above average precipitation was observed over southern and eastern Mexico into central America. Below average precipitation has been observed in Cuba and Hispaniola.

  21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in western and southern Mexico, eastern Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and western Panama; precipitation was near average in the Yucatan peninsula; precipitation was below average over Cuba and Hispaniola.

  22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was near average in central Mexico and below average in the Yucatan peninsula, eastern Panama, Cuba and Hispaniola. Above average precipitation has been observed in the western, southern and eastern coasts of Mexico and across Nicaragua.

  23. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are above average in north central and northern Mexico. Near average precipitation has been observed in southern Mexico and western Nicaragua. Recent rains in late October reduced precipitation deficits in southern Mexico and western Nicaragua.

  24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Oct 2009 – Week 1 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 above average precipitation is forecast across much of Central America, due mainly to enhanced tropical activity. Below average precipitation is forecast over western Mexico.

  25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Oct 2009 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is predicted for western and central Mexico and much of Central America, with above average precipitation forecast over northeastern Nicaragua.

  26. Forecast from 21 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct - 3 Nov 2009 Forecast from 28 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct - 3 Oct 2009 Observed 28 Oct - 3 Nov 2009 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Central America

  27. Eurasia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

  28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the past 7 days, precipitation was above average along the northeastern Africa coast, the Middle East, the Gulf of Guinea region in western Africa and parts of Indonesia (Borneo and eastern Java). Precipitation was below average in parts of southern Europe, southern China and southern Indonesia.

  29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in eastern Europe, the Middle east, western Russia, the Horn of Africa, and parts of Indonesia. Precipitation was below average in central Africa, southern India, and southern China.

  30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in eastern Europe, northwest Russia, central and northern India India, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Precipitation was below average in western Europe, the Gulf of Guinea region in West Africa, southern India and eastern and southern China.

  31. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in France, above average in western Hungary and eastern Ukraine, and below average in the Siberia region of Russia.

  32. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were above average in western Europe and below average in central and eastern Europe. Lows ranged in the single digits over western Europe and between 0 to -10 degrees C over eastern Europe. In northwest Africa this past week, temperatures were above average in Morocco and northern Algeria, and temperatures were below average in eastern Algeria and Tunisia. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

  33. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were below average across the western FSU. Lows in the in the 0 to -10 degrees C range over the western FSU. Southern western FSU districts were exposed to their first freezes this past week. Across the New Lands of Russia this past week, temperatures were above average in Kazakhstan, seasonable in the Urals and below average in Siberia. Lows in the 0 to -20 degrees C range were observed in Kazakhstan (warmest to the south), -10 to -15 degrees C in the Urals, and between -10 and -30 degrees C in Siberia. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

  34. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat and southern India, with above average precipitation in Luzon and Manchuria. Tropical activity in recent months has resulted in above normal rainfall over northern Luzon (not shown), with some locations seeing up to 200% of normal precipitation for the past 95 days (e.g. 3576 mm at Baguio since August 1).

  35. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week, temperatures were seasonable in most of South Asia, below average in northern China, and above average in central and eastern China. Lows were in the teens across much of central and southern India. Lows this past week stayed above freezing in areas along and south of the Yangtze river valley; lows fell in the 0 to -10 degrees C range in the North China Plain and southern Manchuria and were between -10 and -20 degrees C in northern Manchuria. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

  36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Oct 2009 – Week 1 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 forecasts show above average precipitation for eastern and western Europe, southern and southwestern Russia, southern India and parts of Indonesia. Below average precipitation is predicted for southern China, Indochina, and central Africa.

  37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Oct 2009 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is expected in eastern India, China, and southeast Asia, with above average precipitation in the Philippines, eastern Europe and the Horn of Africa.

  38. Forecast from 21 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct - 3 Nov 2009 Forecast from 28 Oct 2009 Valid 28 Oct - 3 Nov 2009 Observed 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Eurasia

  39. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information

More Related