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Resurrecting A Load Research Program. Susan Romer NSTAR 2006 AEIC Load Research Conference September 2006. NSTAR Territory. Massachusetts’ Largest Investor-owned Electric And Gas Utility Transmitting & Delivering Electricity & Natural Gas For More Than 100 Years

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Resurrecting A

Load Research Program

Susan Romer

NSTAR

2006 AEIC Load Research Conference

September 2006


NSTAR Territory

  • Massachusetts’ Largest Investor-owned Electric And Gas Utility

  • Transmitting & Delivering Electricity & Natural Gas For More Than 100 Years

  • Serve @1.4 M Residential & Business Customers In Over 100 MA Communities 

  • @ 3,200 employees 

NSTAR Electric

NSTAR Gas

Combined Gas & Electric


NSTAR - Electric

  • Three Electric Operating Companies

    • Boston Edison Company (BECO)

    • Commonwealth Electric (COMM)

    • Cambridge Electric (CAMB)

  • 4,959 MW – Peak Load (08/02/06-4 PM)

  • 23,236 GWh – 2005 Annual Energy

  • 17% Share of ISO-New England Load

  • Load And Customers Served by 13 Competitive Suppliers as of July 2006

    • 47% of load

      • (Industrial – 77%; Commercial – 28%; Residential 16%)

    • 18% of customers

      • (Industrial – 59%; Commercial – 26%; Residential 17%)


Where’s Load Research

2005

Load Services

Load Research

2000

Energy Supply

1999

Sales??

1993-1998

Homeless

1993

Dismantled

1980-1993

Rates

PURPA Baby

  • Finance & Accounting

  • > Energy Supply

  • > Load Services

  • > Load Research – 1 Analyst

  • > Load Settlement & Load Response – 3 Engineers


Detour Impact

1992 - 10 Year Rate Freeze

1993 - MA Electric Deregulation

1999 - Merger

2000> - Management Changes

  • Loss of employees with knowledge

  • No senior management sponsor

  • No field commitment

    • “Those Meters Are Only Used For Research”

  • Data not available when needed

  • Load data gateway shifted to others

Load Research


Regulatory Requirements

  • Continuous Load Research

  • Meet 95/10 Sample Results Accuracy Levels

  • Most Northeast Utilities Perform Load Research At 95/5 Accuracy Levels

  • Many Northeast Utilities Use Same Month Profiles For Settlement Month


Fear of

Financial

Exposure

Senior

Management

Sponsorship

=

Opportunities

  • 2004 Rate Case and No Load Research Data

  • Awareness of ISO Settlement Dispute B/W Two Other Parties

  • Understanding of How Interchange Point Malfunction Can Impact the Calculation of System Loads

  • 2005 Energy Policy Act DST Change


Load Research Supports

  • Estimation of Competitive Supplier Loads and ICAP Values

  • Development of Rates Charged to Customers

  • Unbilled Energy Sales And Unbilled Revenues Balances

  • Billed/Unbilled Sales & Substation Forecasts

  • Accrual Of Purchased Power Expense As Compared to Actual

  • Development of Rates Charged to Customers

  • Local Network Service Billing for Wholesale Customers

  • Regional Network Transmission Billing for ISO

  • Development of Engineering Loss Studies


TOU

Loads

45%

Profiled

Loads

55%

Load Settlement & Load Research

  • Determine suppliers’ load obligations from load research

  • for the purposes of ISO-New England energy market settlement

  • A contributing factor to unaccounted for energy (UFE)

    • Metering Error – Meter Failures

    • Load Profiling Error** – Sample Estimates

    • Accounting Error – Billing Estimates

    • Distribution Loss Estimation Error – Incorrect Loss Factors

    • Theft

    • Un-metered Energy – Company Use

  • Revenue

    • Annually @$2 Billion


Load Research ProgramAssessment Observations

  • Age of the Samples - Over 9 Years Old

  • Significant Data Loss – 47% for BECO

  • Sample Sizes All Less than 30 Per Stratum

  • Sample Bias Caused By Installation Procedures

    • Over 50% Indoor Meters

    • “Don’t Really Need THOSE Meters”

  • Relative Precisions Averaged from 20-30%


Sample Augmentation Plan

We Need To Consider Options To Improve The Sample Results Until The New Samples Are Installed.

Techniques

  • Ratio Estimation

    • Takes Advantage Of The Correlation Of The Variable Of Interest With Another Variable To Increase Precision

  • Post Stratification

    • Can Be Used Within A Sample Study, But Can Also Be Utilized To Post Stratify Transferred Data From Another Utility With Similar Population Characteristics

  • Load Data Transfer

    • A Transfer of Load Data From One Distribution Company To Another Distribution Company For Certain Samples. Can Utilize Post Stratification To Fit The Transferred Data To The Sample


Preliminary Test Results

  • 2 Primary Goals

    • To Improve the Current Sample Results in the Interim

    • To Use Ratio Estimation as an Expansion Methodology

  • Tested 2 Samples for July 2005

    • Commonwealth Residential R-1

    • Commonwealth Small General Service G-1

  • Looked At Relative Precisions

    • Ratio Estimation Versus Mean-Per-Unit

    • Ratio Estimation Versus Ratio Estimation Post-Stratified

  • Did Not Look At Load Data Transfer, Yet


Residential R-1 Relative Precisions MPU Vs. Ratio Estimation

Improved Average Relative Precision From 16.33 to 13.10


Small GS G-1 Relative Precisions MPU vs. Ratio Estimation

Improved Average Relative Precision From 25.72 to 11.17


Post StratificationAssignment Distribution

Residential

R-1

Small General Service

G-1


Residential R-1 Relative PrecisionsRatio Estimation Post-Stratified

Improved Average Relative Precision From 13.10 to 10.97


Small GS G-1 Relative Precisions Ratio Estimation Post Stratified

Improved Average Relative Precision From 11.17 to 9.83


Relative Precision Ranges

Reduction in Variability in the Precision Values


New Sample Designs

Objectives

  • Achieve Design Accuracy Of +/- 5% At The 95% Confidence Level For All Hours Of The Year

  • Stay Within Budget Constraints

  • Use Stratifying Variables That Will Achieve The Targeted Accuracies For All Hours Of The Year

  • Utilize A 100% (Certainty) Stratum In The Design Process When Feasible

  • Have Longevity Of At Least Five Years

  • Represent Target Populations Optimally

  • Have A Minimum Of 30 Sample Points In Each Stratum

  • Minimize Sample Bias In The Installation Procedures


Current and Proposed Program

  • Do We Need A Separate Sample For R-1 Water Heating (WH)? No

  • Do We Need A Separate Samples For R-2? Yes

  • Do We Need Separate Samples For BECO’s G-2 Commercial And G-2 Industrial? No

  • Proposed

  • 13 Sampled Rates

    • @2002 Sample Meters

  • 11 100% Monitored Rates(TOU)

    • @4400 Meters

  • @225 Interchange Meters


Program Objectives

  • Have a quality, compliant, and maintainable load research program

  • Lower risks of disputes in regulatory proceedings and in ISO settlements

  • Minimize loss of data

  • Improve the predictability of costs of operations, maintenance, & future capital expenditures


Load Research Roadmap

Load Research

Use Same Month Profiles For Settlement

Re-Engineer

To Monthly

Production

Build

Sample Tracking

System

Redesign and

Install

New Samples

Recast Analysis


Next Steps

  • Sharing Performance Metrics

    • Between Metering, Meter Data Management, & Load Services

    • Sample Installation Rate; Data Retrieval Rate; Interval Meter Check

  • Installing The New Samples – 2006 and 2007

  • Build a Sample Tracking System

  • Improve Data Validation Procedures

  • Re-Engineer Load Profile Production to Monthly For Settlement

  • Implement A Process Of Load Study Cycling And Replacement

  • Cross Training

    • Cloning the Old Fashion Way


Load

Research

Now, Who’s Driving the Bus?

Data

Heaven


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