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Resurrecting A Load Research Program. Susan Romer NSTAR 2006 AEIC Load Research Conference September 2006. NSTAR Territory. Massachusetts’ Largest Investor-owned Electric And Gas Utility Transmitting & Delivering Electricity & Natural Gas For More Than 100 Years

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Resurrecting a load research program

Resurrecting A

Load Research Program

Susan Romer

NSTAR

2006 AEIC Load Research Conference

September 2006


Resurrecting a load research program

NSTAR Territory

  • Massachusetts’ Largest Investor-owned Electric And Gas Utility

  • Transmitting & Delivering Electricity & Natural Gas For More Than 100 Years

  • Serve @1.4 M Residential & Business Customers In Over 100 MA Communities 

  • @ 3,200 employees 

NSTAR Electric

NSTAR Gas

Combined Gas & Electric


Nstar electric

NSTAR - Electric

  • Three Electric Operating Companies

    • Boston Edison Company (BECO)

    • Commonwealth Electric (COMM)

    • Cambridge Electric (CAMB)

  • 4,959 MW – Peak Load (08/02/06-4 PM)

  • 23,236 GWh – 2005 Annual Energy

  • 17% Share of ISO-New England Load

  • Load And Customers Served by 13 Competitive Suppliers as of July 2006

    • 47% of load

      • (Industrial – 77%; Commercial – 28%; Residential 16%)

    • 18% of customers

      • (Industrial – 59%; Commercial – 26%; Residential 17%)


Where s load research

Where’s Load Research

2005

Load Services

Load Research

2000

Energy Supply

1999

Sales??

1993-1998

Homeless

1993

Dismantled

1980-1993

Rates

PURPA Baby

  • Finance & Accounting

  • > Energy Supply

  • > Load Services

  • > Load Research – 1 Analyst

  • > Load Settlement & Load Response – 3 Engineers


Detour impact

Detour Impact

1992 - 10 Year Rate Freeze

1993 - MA Electric Deregulation

1999 - Merger

2000> - Management Changes

  • Loss of employees with knowledge

  • No senior management sponsor

  • No field commitment

    • “Those Meters Are Only Used For Research”

  • Data not available when needed

  • Load data gateway shifted to others

Load Research


Regulatory requirements

Regulatory Requirements

  • Continuous Load Research

  • Meet 95/10 Sample Results Accuracy Levels

  • Most Northeast Utilities Perform Load Research At 95/5 Accuracy Levels

  • Many Northeast Utilities Use Same Month Profiles For Settlement Month


Resurrecting a load research program

Fear of

Financial

Exposure

Senior

Management

Sponsorship

=

Opportunities

  • 2004 Rate Case and No Load Research Data

  • Awareness of ISO Settlement Dispute B/W Two Other Parties

  • Understanding of How Interchange Point Malfunction Can Impact the Calculation of System Loads

  • 2005 Energy Policy Act DST Change


Load research supports

Load Research Supports

  • Estimation of Competitive Supplier Loads and ICAP Values

  • Development of Rates Charged to Customers

  • Unbilled Energy Sales And Unbilled Revenues Balances

  • Billed/Unbilled Sales & Substation Forecasts

  • Accrual Of Purchased Power Expense As Compared to Actual

  • Development of Rates Charged to Customers

  • Local Network Service Billing for Wholesale Customers

  • Regional Network Transmission Billing for ISO

  • Development of Engineering Loss Studies


Load settlement load research

TOU

Loads

45%

Profiled

Loads

55%

Load Settlement & Load Research

  • Determine suppliers’ load obligations from load research

  • for the purposes of ISO-New England energy market settlement

  • A contributing factor to unaccounted for energy (UFE)

    • Metering Error – Meter Failures

    • Load Profiling Error** – Sample Estimates

    • Accounting Error – Billing Estimates

    • Distribution Loss Estimation Error – Incorrect Loss Factors

    • Theft

    • Un-metered Energy – Company Use

  • Revenue

    • Annually @$2 Billion


Load research program assessment observations

Load Research ProgramAssessment Observations

  • Age of the Samples - Over 9 Years Old

  • Significant Data Loss – 47% for BECO

  • Sample Sizes All Less than 30 Per Stratum

  • Sample Bias Caused By Installation Procedures

    • Over 50% Indoor Meters

    • “Don’t Really Need THOSE Meters”

  • Relative Precisions Averaged from 20-30%


Sample augmentation plan

Sample Augmentation Plan

We Need To Consider Options To Improve The Sample Results Until The New Samples Are Installed.

Techniques

  • Ratio Estimation

    • Takes Advantage Of The Correlation Of The Variable Of Interest With Another Variable To Increase Precision

  • Post Stratification

    • Can Be Used Within A Sample Study, But Can Also Be Utilized To Post Stratify Transferred Data From Another Utility With Similar Population Characteristics

  • Load Data Transfer

    • A Transfer of Load Data From One Distribution Company To Another Distribution Company For Certain Samples. Can Utilize Post Stratification To Fit The Transferred Data To The Sample


Preliminary test results

Preliminary Test Results

  • 2 Primary Goals

    • To Improve the Current Sample Results in the Interim

    • To Use Ratio Estimation as an Expansion Methodology

  • Tested 2 Samples for July 2005

    • Commonwealth Residential R-1

    • Commonwealth Small General Service G-1

  • Looked At Relative Precisions

    • Ratio Estimation Versus Mean-Per-Unit

    • Ratio Estimation Versus Ratio Estimation Post-Stratified

  • Did Not Look At Load Data Transfer, Yet


Residential r 1 relative precisions mpu vs ratio estimation

Residential R-1 Relative Precisions MPU Vs. Ratio Estimation

Improved Average Relative Precision From 16.33 to 13.10


Small gs g 1 relative precisions mpu vs ratio estimation

Small GS G-1 Relative Precisions MPU vs. Ratio Estimation

Improved Average Relative Precision From 25.72 to 11.17


Post stratification assignment distribution

Post StratificationAssignment Distribution

Residential

R-1

Small General Service

G-1


Residential r 1 relative precisions ratio estimation post stratified

Residential R-1 Relative PrecisionsRatio Estimation Post-Stratified

Improved Average Relative Precision From 13.10 to 10.97


Small gs g 1 relative precisions ratio estimation post stratified

Small GS G-1 Relative Precisions Ratio Estimation Post Stratified

Improved Average Relative Precision From 11.17 to 9.83


Relative precision ranges

Relative Precision Ranges

Reduction in Variability in the Precision Values


New sample designs

New Sample Designs

Objectives

  • Achieve Design Accuracy Of +/- 5% At The 95% Confidence Level For All Hours Of The Year

  • Stay Within Budget Constraints

  • Use Stratifying Variables That Will Achieve The Targeted Accuracies For All Hours Of The Year

  • Utilize A 100% (Certainty) Stratum In The Design Process When Feasible

  • Have Longevity Of At Least Five Years

  • Represent Target Populations Optimally

  • Have A Minimum Of 30 Sample Points In Each Stratum

  • Minimize Sample Bias In The Installation Procedures


Current and proposed program

Current and Proposed Program

  • Do We Need A Separate Sample For R-1 Water Heating (WH)? No

  • Do We Need A Separate Samples For R-2? Yes

  • Do We Need Separate Samples For BECO’s G-2 Commercial And G-2 Industrial? No

  • Proposed

  • 13 Sampled Rates

    • @2002 Sample Meters

  • 11 100% Monitored Rates(TOU)

    • @4400 Meters

  • @225 Interchange Meters


Program objectives

Program Objectives

  • Have a quality, compliant, and maintainable load research program

  • Lower risks of disputes in regulatory proceedings and in ISO settlements

  • Minimize loss of data

  • Improve the predictability of costs of operations, maintenance, & future capital expenditures


Load research roadmap

Load Research Roadmap

Load Research

Use Same Month Profiles For Settlement

Re-Engineer

To Monthly

Production

Build

Sample Tracking

System

Redesign and

Install

New Samples

Recast Analysis


Resurrecting a load research program

Next Steps

  • Sharing Performance Metrics

    • Between Metering, Meter Data Management, & Load Services

    • Sample Installation Rate; Data Retrieval Rate; Interval Meter Check

  • Installing The New Samples – 2006 and 2007

  • Build a Sample Tracking System

  • Improve Data Validation Procedures

  • Re-Engineer Load Profile Production to Monthly For Settlement

  • Implement A Process Of Load Study Cycling And Replacement

  • Cross Training

    • Cloning the Old Fashion Way


Now who s driving the bus

Load

Research

Now, Who’s Driving the Bus?

Data

Heaven


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