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97 pages in print 3,800 pages in the CD. Table of Contents. Executive summary Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges Chapter 2 Global SOFI Chapter 3 National SOFIs Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues Chapter 5 Nanotech – Preventing downsides Chapter 6 Environmental Security

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97 pages in print 3 800 pages in the cd

97 pages in print

3,800 pages in the CD


Table of contents

Table of Contents

  • Executive summary

  • Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges

  • Chapter 2 Global SOFI

  • Chapter 3 National SOFIs

  • Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues

  • Chapter 5 Nanotech – Preventing downsides

  • Chapter 6 Environmental Security

  • Chapter 7 Sustainable Development Index

  • CD-ROM of 3,800 Pages


2005 sof s cd section

2005 SOF’s CD Section

Executive Summary (11 pages)

1. Global Challenges (790 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section (Global SOFI (220); National SOFIs (33) Global Challenges Assessment (94))

3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages)

4. Global Scenarios (Normative to the Year 2050 (18); Exploratory (40); Very Long-Range Scenarios—1,000 years (23); Counterterrorism (40); S&T 2025 Global Scenarios (19); Middle East Peace Scenarios (90)

5. Science and Technology (Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400); Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21)

6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)

7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (Measuring SD (59); Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9); Partnership for SD (48)

9. Environmental Security (510 pages) (Emerging ES Issues; ES: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations; UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions; Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives; ES and Potential Military Requirements)

10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)


Appendices

Appendices

Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants (affiliation/country)

Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section

Appendix C: Global Ethics

Appendix D: Global Scenarios

Appendix E: Science and Technology

Appendix F: Global Goals for The Year 2050

Appendix G: World Leaders on Global Challenges

Appendix H: Measuring & Promoting Sustainable Development

Appendix I: Environmental Security Studies

Appendix J: Factors Required for Successful Implementation ofFutures Research in Decisionmaking

Appendix K: Annotated Bibliography of About 600 Scenario Sets

Appendix L: Publications of the Millennium Project

Acronyms and Abbreviations


Highlights

Highlights

  • Organized crime is more than twice that of all military budgets worldwide

  • Internet connects 1 billion people - 15% of the World

  • 60% of the environmental life support system is gone or unsustainable

  • 24-7 ubiquitous computing accelerates decisionmaking

  • IQ as competitive advantage in the knowledge economy

  • Indo/China’s hightech/low wage forces rest of Third World to re-think trade-lead growth strategies

  • 500 environmental agreement; faster implications – Chart on Page 87: rising global environmental consciousness

  • Nanotech health/environmental impacts rapidly being assessed.


The future will be more than most people think

The Future will be more than most people think

  • The rate of change over the last 25 years ago, will appear slow compared to the next 15 years.

  • Compare last 25 years – no PCs, WWW, mobile phones, AIDS, Cold War – with next: NIBCtechs, social self-organization, global brain, conscious-technology

  • Failure of imagination, losing opportunities


Examples of some future ethical issues

Examples of some future ethical issues

  • Do we have a right to clone ourselves?

  • Do parents have the right to create genetically altered “designer babies”?

  • Should there be two standards: one for the technologically altered and another for the “naturals?”


Values underlying such issues may change over time

Values underlying such issues may change over time

  • A Delphi panel of over 400 selected by the 25 Nodes of the Millennium Project for their scholarship and/or interest in future ethical issues.

  • The panel rated which values were likely to increase and decrease around the world over the next 50 years/


Values likely to decrease over the next 50 years

Values likely to decrease over the next 50 years:

  • Life is a divine unalterable gift.

  • Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.

  • The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.

  • Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.


Values likely to increase over the next 50 years

Values likely to increaseover the next 50 years:

  • Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress.

  • Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.

  • The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.

  • World interests should prevail over nation-state interests.

  • Human space migration is part of human evolution.

  • Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans


Millennium project global challenges assessment

Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment

1996-97

15 Issues

with

131 Actions

182 Developments

1999-2005

Global Challenges

  • General description

  • Regional views

  • Actions

  • Indicators

15 Challenges

with

213 Actions

1998-99

&

Distilled Into

1997-98

15 Opportunities

with

213 Actions

180 Developments

2000-2005

Global State of the Future Index (SOFI)

National SOFIs ( 8 countries of the Americas)


15 global challenges

Sustainable Development

Water

Population and Resources

Democratization

Global, Long-Term Policymaking

Globalization of Information Technology

Rich-Poor Gap

8. Changing disease threats

9. Decision-Making Capacities

10. Peace & Conflict

11. Improving Women’s Status

12. Transnational Crime

13. Energy Demands

14. Science & Technology

15. Global Ethics

15 Global Challenges


97 pages in print 3 800 pages in the cd

SOFI Analysis

  • Why did the SOFI grow?

  • GDP per capita grew

  • Calories per capita increased

  • Life expectancy grew

  • Literacy grew

  • Infant Mortality dropped

  • Access to Fresh Water improved

  • Access to Health Care improved

  • School Enrollment Improved

  • What held the SOFI back?

  • Industrial CO2 emissions grew

  • Unemployment moved increased

  • Forest Lands dropped

  • Rich Poor Gap grew

  • AIDs Deaths grew

  • Developing Country Debt increased

  • Terrorist Attacks


Environmental security is environmental viability for life support with three sub elements

Environmental security is environmental viability for life support… with three sub-elements:

  • Preventing or repairing military damage to the environment

  • Preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts

  • Protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself


Un eu is taking initiatives in environmental management

UN & EU is taking initiativesin environmental management

  • UN Reform Report Stresses Environmental Issues

  • UN Report Recommends Basis for Global Security Consensus

  • UN to Help Tackle Iraq Pollution

  • UN Conference On Small Island States and Climate Change

  • UN Conference ‘Water for Food and Ecosystems’

  • Additional Environmental Security Role for the UN Security Council

  • EU Environment Ministers Propose post-Kyoto Protocol Climate Policies

  • EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme active on January 1, 2005

  • EU to Ban the use of Cadmium in Batteries

  • UK Cooperation with India and Others on the Environment and Sust. Dev.

  • Conference on Environment, Security and Sustainable Development in The Hague

  • European Parliament Resolution to Protect Whales From Sonar

  • OECD Environment Ministers Call for more Ambitious Policies

  • Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005

  • Clean Air for Europe Initiative to Limit Air Pollution

  • Stockholm Convention on POPs to be Expanded


Mini nanotechnology two round delphi study

Mini NanotechnologyTwo-Round Delphi Study

  • What are potential military uses and their possible health hazards and environmental impacts? between now and 2010 and between 2010 and 2025?

  • What do we have to know to reduce or prevent these potential problems?

  • What are general research priorities to produce the relevant knowledge to improve future prospects with Nanotech?


Is a new kind of think tank

... is a new kind of think tank

The Millennium Project


It is global

It is Global...

  • Geographically

  • Institutionally

  • Disciplinarily

  • Research focus


97 pages in print 3 800 pages in the cd

UN

Universities

Organizations

Governments

Corporations

NGOs

Millennium Project

… May become a TransInstitution


97 pages in print 3 800 pages in the cd

Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

Helsinki

Berlin

London

Calgary

Moscow

Paris

Prague

Seoul

Washington, DC

Silicon Valley

Rome

Tehran

Tokyo

Mexico City

Cairo

Beijing

New Delhi

Kuwait

Madurai

Caracas

Cyber

Sao Paulo

Pretoria

Buenos Aires

Sidney


Millennium project nodes memorandum of understands with

Millennium Project Nodes Memorandum of Understands with:

Universities in    Prague    London    Rome    Sao Paulo    Cairo    Helsinki    Tehran    Kodaikanal (India)

NGOs in    Venezuela (WFS chapter)    Mexico (new NGO as Node)

   Kuwait (non-profit research institute)

Korea (futures organization)    Paris (futurist network)

Government Institutions    Russian Academy of Natural Sciences    Chinese Academy of Natural Sciences    Chinese Academy of Social Sciences    Slovakian Academy of SciencesPrivate Companies in    Tokyo (aerospace)    Berlin (futures planning)    Buenos Aires (futures planning)    Silicon Valley (USA) (venture capital)    New Delhi (futures, strategy planning)


Relationship of the unu ac unu and the millennium project

Relationship of the UNU, AC/UNU,and the Millennium Project

  • United Nations University (UNU) is the principal academic research organ of the UN, headquartered in Tokyo.

  • The American Council for the UNU (AC/UNU) created in 1975 as U.S. NGO as the point of contact between Americans and the UNU.

  • The Millennium Project operates under the auspices of the AC/UNU.


Previous sponsors over past 10 years

Corporations

Applied Materials

Deloitte & Touche LLP

Ford Motor Company

General Motors

Hughes Space and Communications

Monsanto Company

Motorola Corporation

Pioneer Hi-Bred International

Shell International

Foundations

Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson Foundation for Social Innovation

Amana-Kay

Foundation for Social Innovation

Foundation for the Future

Government Organizations

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute

U.S. Department of Energy

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Kuwait Oil Company

UN Organizations

UNDP

UNESCO

United Nations University

Previous Sponsors over past 10 years


Current activities

Current Activities

  • Global Energy Scenarios

  • Futures Research Methodology - V 3.0

  • Monthly reports of international environmental security issues

  • Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia

  • Up-dating Annotated Scenario Bibliography

  • Middle East Peace Scenarios dissemination and discussions

  • National State of the Future Indexes (SOFIs)

  • Updating & Improving Global Challenges and publish 2006 SOF

  • Women Issues Organizations and their Research

  • Experiments with Collaborative Software


Futures research methodology v2 0

Futures Research Methodology V2.0

1. Introduction & Overview15. Simulation and Games

2.Environmental Scanning16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int.

3.Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting

4.Futures Wheel18. S&T Road Mapping

5.Trend Impact Analysis19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)

6.Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight

7.Structural Analysis21. Agent Modeling

8.Systems Perspectives22. SOFI

9.Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software

10.Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept

11.Technological Sequence Analysis25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning

12.Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis26. Causal Layered Analysis

13.Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios27. Integration, Comparisons, and

14.Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods


97 pages in print 3 800 pages in the cd

The Millennium Project

WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG

[email protected]


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