Powerdown

1. Powerdown Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World Richard Heinberg

2. History and Background

6. Energy Slaves • Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on average: • 8,000 pounds of oil • 5,150 pounds of coal • 4,700 pounds of natural gas • 1/10th pound of uranium • If one “person-power” is 0.25 hp or 635 Btu/hr, this is the equivalent of 300 persons working around the clock for each of us. (from Youngquist)

9. America in 1950 • World’s foremost oil producer • World’s foremost oil exporter • World’s largest exporter of machine tools and manufactured goods • World’s foremost creditor nation • Self-sufficient in nearly all resources

10. America in 2005 • World’s foremost oil importer • World’s foremost debtor nation • World’s foremost importer of manufactured goods and non-petroleum resources • Manufacturing jobs fleeing to other countries

11. Following its national oil production peak, the US was able to compensate by importing more oil from other nations. Following the global oil production peak, we will not be able to compensate by importing more oil from other planets.

12. Four Ways to Predict Peak 1. Calculate the half-way point of extraction, based upon estimates of the ultimately recoverable resource, or URR (Hubbert, Campbell)

15. Four Ways to Predict Peak 2. Count the number of years from peak of discovery to peak of extraction (Campbell)

16. Global Oil Discoveries ExxonMobil 2003

19. Four Ways to Predict Peak 3. Add up nation-by-nation peaks to arrive at the date for global peak (Richard Duncan)

24. Four Ways to Predict Peak 4. Compare new production capacity needed in the next few years with the production capacity now in development (Chris Skrebowski)

26. Chris Srebowski of Petroleum Review (London), in his 2004 study, “Oil Field Megaprojects,” calculates that there are 12.5 million barrels/day of new production capacity in development for the next five years. But 30 mb/d of new capacity will be needed to offset depletion. This suggests that the likely all-time global oil production peak will occur in 2007 or 2008 at the latest.

31. Energy Alternatives

32. US energy consumption by source Source: US Energy Information Agency

33. Renewable energy as share of total US energy consumption Source: US Energy Information Agency

34. Consequences of Global Oil Peak • The Economy

35. Consequences of Global Oil Peak • The Economy • Transportation

36. Consequences of Global Oil Peak • The Economy • Transportation • Food and Agriculture

37. Consequences of Global Oil Peak • The Economy • Transportation • Food and Agriculture • War and Peace

38. Geopolitics

39. Map of Proved Oil Reserves

40. Oil Endowment Horseshoe

43. What Cheney knew in 1999In a speech to the International Petroleum Institute in London (late 1999), Dick Cheney, then chairman of the world’s largestoil services company, Halliburton, presented the picture of world oil supply and demand to industry insiders. “By some estimates,” Cheney stated, “there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”  Cheney ended on an alarming note: “That means by 2010 we willneed on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.” This is more than six times Saudi Arabia’s current output.

45. Likely Forms of Resource Wars • Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations

46. Next Stop:Iran

47. Likely Forms of Resource Wars • Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations • Between consuming nations

48. Economic Warfare China--Yuan pegged to the dollar; result: cheap Chinese imports, continuing loss of American jobs. Both China and US need MORE OIL!

49. Likely Forms of Resource Wars • Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations • Between consuming nations • Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources

50. Likely Forms of Resource Wars • Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations • Between consuming nations • Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources • Asymmetrical warfare between rich consuming nations and non-state entities in producing nations