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The Debt Crisis and the World Economy

The Debt Crisis and the World Economy. Nick Kounis Head Macro Research Athens, 17 October 2012. Marine Money Greek Forum. Introducing the Stop-Go Recovery. Global PMI index. Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics. Euro crisis has been the main culprit. S.

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The Debt Crisis and the World Economy

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  1. The Debt Crisis and the World Economy Nick Kounis Head Macro Research Athens, 17 October 2012 Marine Money Greek Forum

  2. Introducing the Stop-Go Recovery Global PMI index Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics

  3. Euro crisis has been the main culprit S

  4. Foreign investors running for the exit! Foreign holdings of Spanish and Italian government debt, share in total, % Source: National central banks

  5. ECB President Draghi to the rescue “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes …believe me it will be enough” 5

  6. The Draghi effect: bond markets 2-Y government bond yield spread over Germany, % Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

  7. Spanish PM Rajoy: I’m still thinking about it! 7

  8. Big systemic risks to the euro have been reduced Eurozone big bank exposure to sovereign debt (% tier 1 capital) 8 Source: EBA, ABN AMRO Group Economics

  9. The Draghi effect: equity markets Index Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

  10. Signs of bottoming out in global industrial cycle, but… % yoy Source: Website Fraport, Thomson Reuters Datastream

  11. Fixing the euro will take time 11

  12. Budget cuts, joblessness will weigh on eurozone growth 3% GDP cuts in 2012-13 Unemployment: 11.3% 12

  13. Muddling through remains main scenario for euro 13

  14. China’s economic growth slowing down… % Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

  15. …policymakers responding cautiously % Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

  16. China’s great transformation 16

  17. Fed Chairman Bernanke has taken a bold step USD 85bn a month !!

  18. Impact of QE: equities Index QE-2 QE-1 Twist QE-3 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO GE

  19. Impact of QE: commodities Index QE-1 QE-2 Twist QE-3 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO GE

  20. The debt crisis across the Atlantic: the US fiscal cliff

  21. Global Economic Forecasts Source: ABN AMRO GE

  22. Commodity Price Forecasts Source: ABN AMRO GE

  23. Important information The views and opinions expressed in this document may be subject to change at any given time. Individuals are advised to seek professional guidance prior to making any investments. This material is provided to you for information purposes only and should not be construed as an advice nor as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Before investing in any product of ABN AMRO Bank N.V., you should obtain information on various financial and other risks and any possible restrictions that you and your investments activities may encounter under applicable laws and regulations. If, after reading the presentation, you consider investing in a product, you are advised to discuss such an investment with your relationship manager or personal advisor and check whether this product –considering the risks involved- is appropriate within your investment activities. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is correct but does not accept liability for any misprints. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. reserves the right to make amendments to this material. 23

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