Centre for Earth Systems
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 17

With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 85 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research. Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisions Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10 th September 2013. With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University)

Download Presentation

With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


With thanks to jim hall oxford university

Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research

Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisionsUrban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013

With thanks to:

Jim Hall (Oxford University)

Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University)

Mark McCarthy (Met Office)

Mike Batty (UCL)

[email protected]


Challenge adaptation of cities and infrastructure to global change

Challenge: Adaptation of cities and infrastructure to global change

  • Socio-economic change

    • Growing global population

    • Changing demography

    • Socio-economic trends

    • Ownership and governance

  • Urbanization

    • Concentrates infrastructure

    • Implications for external ‘support’ infrastructure

  • Environmental pressures

    • Climate change

    • Broader sustainability tradeoffs

    • Relationship with land use

  • Deterioration and replacement


Some complicities and tradeoffs

Some complicities and tradeoffs

Adapted from: Dawson (2011) Potential pitfalls on the pathway to sustainable cities…and how to avoid them, Carbon Management,Vol 2(2)


With thanks to jim hall oxford university

Socio-economic scenarios

  • City-scale climate scenarios

  • Temperature

  • Precipitation

  • Sea level rise

  • Storm surge

Regional economy

  • Dynamic resource interactions between sectors

  • Specialist energy sector module

Climate impacts and adaptation

Greenhouse gas emissions

  • Multi-sectoral emissions accounting

  • Detailed sub-modules for transport (personal and freight)

  • Analysis of city-scale energy policies

Land use Transport Model

  • Analyse risks of

  • Flooding

  • Drought

  • Urban heat

  • Test adaptation options

  • Employment

  • Multi-modal transport

  • Developed land cover

  • Population

  • Planning constraints and attractors

Testing of policy options

Working with key London stakeholders


Climate vs socio economic change flood risk

Climate vs. Socio-economic change: Flood risk

Baseline 2100

Eastern axis 2100

2005

Centralisation 2100

Sub-urbanisation 2100


Socio economic vs climate change flood risk for different land use change

Socio-economic vs. Climate changeFlood risk for different land use change


Socio economic vs climate change attribution of flood risk

Socio-economic vs. Climate changeAttribution of flood risk


Drought risk climate vs socio economic change

Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change


Drought risk climate vs socio economic change1

Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change

- 34% (annually incremented) by 2100 (mid-point of sustainable homes code)

+300,000 Ml from 2020

+300 Ml/day from 2020

- 40% (annually incremented) by 2100


Drought risk potential mitigation tradeoff

Drought risk: Potential mitigation tradeoff

Energy consumption

00.250.50.7511.25

Carbon Dioxide (Mt/year)


Land use adaptation vs mitigation

Land use: Adaptation vs. Mitigation

Average currentheat emissions


Land use pressures

Land use pressures


Tough decisions

Tough decisions


Transformation of urban systems to be climate sensitive will require

Transformation of urban systems to be climate sensitive will require

  • Motivation and leadership

  • Much improved understanding of the mechanisms of interaction in urban function, via:

    • Land use

    • Transport

    • Resource flows (energy, water, nutrients)

    • Building form and function

    • Urban climate

    • Information networks

  • Recognition of the time scales of change and the legacy of past decisions (planning, infrastructure, buildings)

  • Develop collective understanding of urban function and collaborative platforms for exploration of transition strategies


With thanks to jim hall oxford university

Can IA information improve the urban experience?

“We have come to recognise how integrated modelling of the type delivered by the Tyndall Centre Cities programme can help to bring different stakeholders together to develop common understanding of processes and consequences of long term change.

That collective understanding is essential if we are to manage change rather than become its victims.”

Alex Nickson,

Strategy manager: climatechange adaptation and water,

Greater London Authority

http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser/researchprogramme/outputs/

[email protected]


Challenges for using ia information to improve the urban experience

Challenges for using IA information to improve the urban experience?

  • How far is far enough in tracking down consistency, interactions and feedbacks?

  • How should we estimate and communicate uncertainties?

  • Can we transfer IA insights and methods to other cities worldwide?

  • How can IA information flows be best exploited by organisations and individuals?

  • How can we build a global coalition of researchers and practitioners equipped to address these problems?


With thanks to jim hall oxford university

Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research

Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisionsUrban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013

With thanks to:

Jim Hall (Oxford University)

Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University)

Mark McCarthy (Met Office)

Mike Batty (UCL)

[email protected]


  • Login