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The State Evaluation Process. Therese Renis Section Head Division of Operations B Department of Safeguards 08 February 2007. Outline. IAEA Safeguards – past and present Strengthening the Safeguards System The Model Additional Protocol. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime.

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The State Evaluation Process

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The state evaluation process

The State Evaluation Process

Therese Renis

Section Head

Division of Operations B

Department of Safeguards

08 February 2007


The state evaluation process

Outline

  • IAEA Safeguards – past and present

  • Strengthening the Safeguards System

  • The Model Additional Protocol


The state evaluation process

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

Global, Regional

and Bilateral

Agreements

Export Guidelines

Physical Protection

Protection from seizure, theft and criminal activities

International

Safeguards

Control of the supply of nuclear and non-nuclear material, technology and equipment

International Safeguards


The state evaluation process

IAEA safeguards inspectors verify States’ compliance with their Safeguards Agreements

  • Safeguards implemented in 153 States with Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements (based on INFCIRC/153 Corr.) in force

  • Voluntary Offer Safeguards Agreements (nuclear weapon States)

  • Item-specific Safeguards Agreements (based on INFCIRC/66)


The state evaluation process

Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements (INFCIRC/540)

  • New legal instrument approved by Board of Governors in May 1997.

  • Provides Agency with more rights of access to information and to locations in a State.

  • Concluded by States on a voluntary basis; becomes part of a State’s safeguards agreement.

  • As of 1 February 2007, additional protocols (AP) have been approved by the Board for 118 States and 78 States have APs in force.


Safeguards conclusions are reported in the safeguards implementation report sir

Safeguards conclusions are reported in the Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR)

For States with safeguards agreements:

  • … the declared nuclear material and other items remained in peaceful nuclear activities …

For States with comprehensive safeguards agreements and additional protocols:

  • … all nuclear material remained

  • in peaceful nuclear activities …


States with comprehensive safeguards agreements

States with comprehensive safeguards agreements

The State evaluation process seeks to answer several questions:

  • Is all relevant information on the State’s nuclear programme consistent?

  • Is the “picture” of the State’s present and planned nuclear programme complete?

  • Is there sufficient information availableon which to draw a conclusion?


The state evaluation process

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions


The state evaluation process

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

CSAs focus on verification of declared nuclear material and facilities


The state evaluation process

IAEA Board of Governors March 1995

“...the safeguards system for implementing comprehensive safeguards agreements should be designed to provide for verification by the Agency of the correctness and completeness of States’ declarations, so that there is credible assurance of the non-diversion of nuclear material from declared activities and of the absence of undeclared nuclear activities.”

Safeguards strengthening measures were needed.


The state evaluation process

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations


The state evaluation process

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

Some strengthening measures could be introduced under existing safeguards agreements


Strengthened measures under inspections

Strengthened Measures under Inspections

  • Unannounced/short-notice inspections

  • Remote monitoring

  • Environmental sampling

  • Enhanced cooperation with SSACs or regional systems

  • Early provision of facility design information


Additional information requested from states

Additional Information Requested from States

Under INFCIRC/153

  • Information on closed-down and decommissionedfacilities

  • Information on past activities

    Voluntarily-Offered

  • Responses to State System of Accountancy and Control (SSAC) questionnaires

  • Periodic reporting on exports and imports of sensitive equipment and non-nuclear material

  • Holdings and exports of separated americiumand neptunium

  • Response to Agency requests for further information


State evaluation includes the use of open and other sources of information

State evaluation includes the use of open and other sources of information

  • IAEA information

  • Scientific and technical literature

  • Academic and research institutions

  • Trade publications

  • Newspapers/radio/television/magazine reports

  • Satellite imagery

  • Third party sources


States with comprehensive safeguards agreements1

States with comprehensive safeguards agreements

The State evaluation process seeks to answer several questions:

  • Is all relevant information on the State’s nuclear programme consistent?

  • Is the “picture” of the State’s present and planned nuclear programme complete?

  • Is there sufficient information availableon which to draw a conclusion?

Under comprehensive safeguards agreements alone, there is insufficient information and access to answer these questions.


The state evaluation process

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations


The state evaluation process

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

Under an additional protocol the Agency has more extensive information and access.


The state evaluation process

Measures Contained in the Additional Protocol

  • Information about, and inspector access to, all aspects of a State’s nuclear fuel cycle

    - From mines to nuclear waste -

  • Information on, and short-notice inspector access to, all buildings on a nuclear site

  • Information about, and inspector access to, other locations where nuclear material is present

  • Information about, and mechanisms for inspector access to, fuel cycle-related R & D


The state evaluation process

Measures Contained in the Additional Protocol

  • Information on the manufacture and export of specified equipment and non-nuclear materials

  • Collection of environmental samples beyond declared locations

  • Information on future plans to develop the nuclear fuel cycle

  • Administrative arrangements

    • Visas

    • Inspector designation

    • Access to communication means


In addition the agency can request

In addition, the Agency can request:

  • Amplification and clarification of declared information

  • Information to clarify and facilitate the resolution of questions and inconsistencies

  • Operational activities of safeguards relevance


Complementary access under an additional protocol

Complementary Access under an Additional Protocol

  • On a selective basis to assure the absence of nuclear material and activities

  • To resolve a question or inconsistency related to the declaration

  • To confirm the decommissioned status of a facility


State evaluation has become the basis for safeguards implementation

StateDeclarations

Plan safeguards

activities

Conduct

safeguards

activities

Results of

activities

Other information

State evaluation has become the basis for safeguards implementation

Analyze

all information


Safeguards activities are implemented in a flexible manner based on evaluation

Safeguards activities are implemented in a flexible manner, based on evaluation

  • Verification of declared nuclear material and activities - according to Safeguards’ criteria

  • Conduct complementary access

  • Find and evaluate more information to complete

  • the picture of the States nuclear programme

    • open source

    • request from State

    • conduct further activities

  • Resolve questions or inconsistencies with regard to State’s declarations

  • Follow-up on issues of safeguards significance


Strengthened safeguards measures

Strengthened Safeguards Measures

Additional Protocol Measures

Expanded declaration

Complementary Access

Broader Environmental Sampling

Strengthening Measures under CSAs

Environmental Sampling

Remote Monitoring

SSAC Cooperation

Traditional Measures under CSAs

Nuclear Material Accountancy

Containment and Surveillance

Design Information Verification


Integrated safeguards

Integrated Safeguards

  • Optimum combination of all safeguards measures available to the Agency under CSAs and additional protocols.

  • Broader safeguards conclusion allows for reductions in verification effort for some categories of declared nuclear material.

  • Involves a redistribution of resources from nuclear material verification activities to the implementation of additional protocol measures.


Despite strengthening measures limitations remain

Despite strengthening measures, limitations remain

  • There are limits on information and access that States must provide

  • The Board recommended modification of small quantities protocol (SQP)

  • An Advisory Committee of the Board (Committee 25) is considering further improvement in the effectiveness and efficiency of safeguards

    • Within existing legal framework

    • Voluntary

    • Expanding technical capabilities

      Cooperation and transparency of States facilitates safeguards implementation


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Drawing the broader conclusion that all nuclear material has been placed under safeguards requires the additional information and access under the additional protocol.

  • Ensuring that this conclusion is credible requires a rigorous State evaluation process.

  • Implementation of integrated safeguards will result in savings in inspection effort.


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