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The State Evaluation Process. Therese Renis Section Head Division of Operations B Department of Safeguards 08 February 2007. Outline. IAEA Safeguards – past and present Strengthening the Safeguards System The Model Additional Protocol. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime.

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the state evaluation process

The State Evaluation Process

Therese Renis

Section Head

Division of Operations B

Department of Safeguards

08 February 2007

slide2

Outline

  • IAEA Safeguards – past and present
  • Strengthening the Safeguards System
  • The Model Additional Protocol
slide3

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

Global, Regional

and Bilateral

Agreements

Export Guidelines

Physical Protection

Protection from seizure, theft and criminal activities

International

Safeguards

Control of the supply of nuclear and non-nuclear material, technology and equipment

International Safeguards

slide4

IAEA safeguards inspectors verify States’ compliance with their Safeguards Agreements

  • Safeguards implemented in 153 States with Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements (based on INFCIRC/153 Corr.) in force
  • Voluntary Offer Safeguards Agreements (nuclear weapon States)
  • Item-specific Safeguards Agreements (based on INFCIRC/66)
slide5

Model Protocol Additional to Safeguards Agreements (INFCIRC/540)

  • New legal instrument approved by Board of Governors in May 1997.
  • Provides Agency with more rights of access to information and to locations in a State.
  • Concluded by States on a voluntary basis; becomes part of a State’s safeguards agreement.
  • As of 1 February 2007, additional protocols (AP) have been approved by the Board for 118 States and 78 States have APs in force.
safeguards conclusions are reported in the safeguards implementation report sir
Safeguards conclusions are reported in the Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR)

For States with safeguards agreements:

  • … the declared nuclear material and other items remained in peaceful nuclear activities …

For States with comprehensive safeguards agreements and additional protocols:

  • … all nuclear material remained
  • in peaceful nuclear activities …
states with comprehensive safeguards agreements
States with comprehensive safeguards agreements

The State evaluation process seeks to answer several questions:

  • Is all relevant information on the State’s nuclear programme consistent?
  • Is the “picture” of the State’s present and planned nuclear programme complete?
  • Is there sufficient information availableon which to draw a conclusion?
slide8

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

slide9

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

CSAs focus on verification of declared nuclear material and facilities

slide10

IAEA Board of Governors March 1995

“...the safeguards system for implementing comprehensive safeguards agreements should be designed to provide for verification by the Agency of the correctness and completeness of States’ declarations, so that there is credible assurance of the non-diversion of nuclear material from declared activities and of the absence of undeclared nuclear activities.”

Safeguards strengthening measures were needed.

slide11

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

slide12

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

Some strengthening measures could be introduced under existing safeguards agreements

strengthened measures under inspections
Strengthened Measures under Inspections
  • Unannounced/short-notice inspections
  • Remote monitoring
  • Environmental sampling
  • Enhanced cooperation with SSACs or regional systems
  • Early provision of facility design information
additional information requested from states
Additional Information Requested from States

Under INFCIRC/153

  • Information on closed-down and decommissionedfacilities
  • Information on past activities

Voluntarily-Offered

  • Responses to State System of Accountancy and Control (SSAC) questionnaires
  • Periodic reporting on exports and imports of sensitive equipment and non-nuclear material
  • Holdings and exports of separated americiumand neptunium
  • Response to Agency requests for further information
state evaluation includes the use of open and other sources of information
State evaluation includes the use of open and other sources of information
  • IAEA information
  • Scientific and technical literature
  • Academic and research institutions
  • Trade publications
  • Newspapers/radio/television/magazine reports
  • Satellite imagery
  • Third party sources
states with comprehensive safeguards agreements1
States with comprehensive safeguards agreements

The State evaluation process seeks to answer several questions:

  • Is all relevant information on the State’s nuclear programme consistent?
  • Is the “picture” of the State’s present and planned nuclear programme complete?
  • Is there sufficient information availableon which to draw a conclusion?

Under comprehensive safeguards agreements alone, there is insufficient information and access to answer these questions.

slide17

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

slide18

Evaluation of “State as a whole”to draw Safeguards Conclusions

Results

of verification activities

Otherinformation

State-suppliedinformation

Nuclear material accountancy; facility design information

Open andother sources

Inspection

Voluntaryreporting

Design information verification (DIV)

Complementaryaccess

Additional protocoldeclarations

Under an additional protocol the Agency has more extensive information and access.

slide19

Measures Contained in the Additional Protocol

  • Information about, and inspector access to, all aspects of a State’s nuclear fuel cycle

- From mines to nuclear waste -

  • Information on, and short-notice inspector access to, all buildings on a nuclear site
  • Information about, and inspector access to, other locations where nuclear material is present
  • Information about, and mechanisms for inspector access to, fuel cycle-related R & D
slide20

Measures Contained in the Additional Protocol

  • Information on the manufacture and export of specified equipment and non-nuclear materials
  • Collection of environmental samples beyond declared locations
  • Information on future plans to develop the nuclear fuel cycle
  • Administrative arrangements
    • Visas
    • Inspector designation
    • Access to communication means
in addition the agency can request
In addition, the Agency can request:
  • Amplification and clarification of declared information
  • Information to clarify and facilitate the resolution of questions and inconsistencies
  • Operational activities of safeguards relevance
complementary access under an additional protocol
Complementary Access under an Additional Protocol
  • On a selective basis to assure the absence of nuclear material and activities
  • To resolve a question or inconsistency related to the declaration
  • To confirm the decommissioned status of a facility
state evaluation has become the basis for safeguards implementation

StateDeclarations

Plan safeguards

activities

Conduct

safeguards

activities

Results of

activities

Other information

State evaluation has become the basis for safeguards implementation

Analyze

all information

safeguards activities are implemented in a flexible manner based on evaluation
Safeguards activities are implemented in a flexible manner, based on evaluation
  • Verification of declared nuclear material and activities - according to Safeguards’ criteria
  • Conduct complementary access
  • Find and evaluate more information to complete
  • the picture of the States nuclear programme
    • open source
    • request from State
    • conduct further activities
  • Resolve questions or inconsistencies with regard to State’s declarations
  • Follow-up on issues of safeguards significance
strengthened safeguards measures
Strengthened Safeguards Measures

Additional Protocol Measures

Expanded declaration

Complementary Access

Broader Environmental Sampling

Strengthening Measures under CSAs

Environmental Sampling

Remote Monitoring

SSAC Cooperation

Traditional Measures under CSAs

Nuclear Material Accountancy

Containment and Surveillance

Design Information Verification

integrated safeguards
Integrated Safeguards
  • Optimum combination of all safeguards measures available to the Agency under CSAs and additional protocols.
  • Broader safeguards conclusion allows for reductions in verification effort for some categories of declared nuclear material.
  • Involves a redistribution of resources from nuclear material verification activities to the implementation of additional protocol measures.
despite strengthening measures limitations remain
Despite strengthening measures, limitations remain
  • There are limits on information and access that States must provide
  • The Board recommended modification of small quantities protocol (SQP)
  • An Advisory Committee of the Board (Committee 25) is considering further improvement in the effectiveness and efficiency of safeguards
    • Within existing legal framework
    • Voluntary
    • Expanding technical capabilities

Cooperation and transparency of States facilitates safeguards implementation

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Drawing the broader conclusion that all nuclear material has been placed under safeguards requires the additional information and access under the additional protocol.
  • Ensuring that this conclusion is credible requires a rigorous State evaluation process.
  • Implementation of integrated safeguards will result in savings in inspection effort.
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