The Impact of Social-Psychological Factors on Reproductive Intentions

1. The Independent Institute for Social Policy The Impact of Social-Psychological Factors on Reproductive Intentions EkaterinaGolovlyanitsina GGS Russia 2004

2. Non-material Determinants of Reproductive Intentions • Orientations towards traditional values: religiousness conservatism • Social-psychological factors: the attitude towards bearing a child subjective norm behavioral control

3. Personal preferences and dispositions; Exogenous incentives and restrictions, etc. Attitude Norm Intention Behavior Control Theory of Planned Behavior[Fishbein, Ajzen 1975, 1988]

4. The Sample and Questions • Sample: Women 18-44 (except for pensioners, disabled, unable to bear a child, pregnant).2604respondents. • Attitude: Let’s imagine that you will have a (another) child in the next three years. In your opinion, how this would influence various aspects of your life? [ability to do what you want, opportunities at work, satisfaction with life, relationships with partner, with parents etc.] • Perceived norm: Although the decision to have or not to have a (another) child should be yours and (your partner’s/spouse’s), your relatives and friends might also have an opinion as to what you should do in the next three years. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements:Most of your friends // relatives // Your parents think that you should have a (another) child • Behavioral control: To what extent does your decision to have or not to have a (another) child depend on financial situation, R’s work, housing, R’s health, etc.

5. The attitude – thedegree to which performance of the behavior is positively or negatively valued Women expect that childbirth will worsen theiremployment situations, but enhance their emotional conditions

6. Perceived norm – behavioral expectations of important referent individuals or groups (the person's, family, friends, etc.) Women not expecting any support from relatives tend to decline childbearing

7. Behavioral control – a person’s beliefs about the presence of factors that may facilitate or impede the action Women intending to have a child see external factors as unimportant

8. Binary logistic regression models of reproductive intentions • General intentions R2 = 0,39 (only psychological factors = 0,33) N = 2032 • Intentions for the next 3 years R2 = 0,55 (only psychological factors = 0,44) N = 2331 According to the theory of planned behavior, psychological factors work as better determinants than objective characteristics

9. General intentions: the attitude and other psychological factors are major determinants Y axis – the possibility that a woman intends to have a child

10. Intentions for 3 years: both psychological factors and objective characteristics of women matter Y axis – the possibility that a woman intends to have a child in the next 3 years

11. The income effect dramatically decreases when psychological factors are in the model

12. Perceived normand household income

13. Conclusions • Psychological factors are good predictors of reproductive intentions, though some methodological problems persist • Expected reaction of relatives and friends turns out to be both the strongest incentive and the strongest restriction of reproductive intentions of Russian women • Intention to have a first child depends only on attitute and perceived norm; intention for second and more child depends on attitude, perceived norm and household financial wellbeing