IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FOR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS IN THE EASTERN HIMALAYAN REGION

1. IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FOR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS IN THE EASTERN HIMALAYAN REGION Ahsan Uddin Ahmed Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP) GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting, Kathmandu, 29-30 June 2006

2. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting The Eastern Himalayan [i.e., Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM)] River Systems in South Asia

3. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting GBM River Systems Spreading over five countries: Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh The three basins cover an area of 1.75 Million square kilometers The second largest outfall after the Amazon System Perennial Rivers Average annual flow: 1360 Billion cubic meters Contributed to the development of the largest delta on earth These river systems support agriculture-based livelihoods of about 650 Million people in South Asia

4. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting GBM Rivers are strongly influenced by SW-Monsoon Monsoon generates ‘too much water’ There is water scarcity during the dry winter season (‘too little water’) High spatial and temporal variability in water availability throughout the GBM region cause problems Floods Ag. Droughts Salinity Ingress along the coast THE HK HIMALAYAS

5. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Over 80% of rainfall occurs during June – September The River Systems cannot drain Riverbank overtopping and flood Catastrophic floods In India (Bihar, West Bengal, Assam) In Nepal (Terai region) In Bangladesh

6. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Concerns of GEC Global Climate Change Acid Rain Asian Brown Cloud Urbanization Globalization Other local factors Population dynamics Dynamics in geo-physical systems Social and economic aspects monsoon Ahmed et al., 1998

7. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Extent of Change: There will be a general rise in surface average temperature: 1.3°C by 2030s; 2.6°C by 2070s. Monsoon rainfall will increase by 7% by 2050s and 11% by 2080s. Number of rainy days in the region will increase by about 20 days. More catastrophic floods Courtesy: IITM

8. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Courtesy: IITM Models such as HadCM project wetter monsoon over the South Asian Region. Wetter monsoon means higher amounts of water being available.

9. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Global Warming will also cause rise in sea level. Along the coastal rivers, where discharge requirement is even higher than the floodplains in general, a combination of se level rise and sea level will increase flood vulnerability. monsoon Ahmed et al., 1998

10. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Since mid-1970s, Bangladesh has enhanced its capacity to deal with moderate (once in a twenty-year flood) floods. Such a coping was made possible by building embankments. However, flood controlling structures are not so effective to offer protection against catastrophic floods. Choudhury et al., 2003

11. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting Implications for urban areas Trapped in floodwaters ? Level of inundation in Dhaka city

12. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting IMPLICATIONS OF FLOODS: HUMAN DIMENSIONS • Immediate Effects • Temporary Displacement • Drowning and Snake-bites • Loss of Income & Economic Opportunities • Non-availability of Potable Water • Suffering from Water-borne Diseases • Lack of Cooking Energy • Inability to Purchase Consumable Items Problems Faced by Women and Children Lack of Supply of Commodities Price hike

13. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting

14. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting IMPLICATIONS OF FLOODS: HUMAN DIMENSIONS • Long Term Effects • Crop Failure and Food Security • Energy Security • Rehabilitation • Disruption of Services Problems Faced by Women and Children Lack of Supply of Commodities Education Transportation Health Care Environmental Services Security Price hike

15. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting

16. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting

17. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting THANK YOU

18. Implications of GEC for Flood-prone Areas in the Eastern Himalayan Region GECAFS-IGP-APN Project Launching Meeting In the dry season, reduced river flows give rise to salinity ingress along the coastal rivers Currently, over 15 million people in Bangladesh alone are forced to drink saline water