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The New Farmer’s Almanac Agriculture and Climate Change

The New Farmer’s Almanac Agriculture and Climate Change. Anne Royer & Tomomi Suwa GK-12 Fall Workshop October 3, 2012. How will climate change impact farmers?. Understanding the difference between climate and weather Specific predictions of climate change

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The New Farmer’s Almanac Agriculture and Climate Change

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  1. The New Farmer’s AlmanacAgriculture and Climate Change Anne Royer & Tomomi Suwa GK-12 Fall Workshop October 3, 2012

  2. How will climate change impact farmers? • Understanding the difference between climate and weather • Specific predictions of climate change • Using real long-term data to understand how predicted changes may affect crops

  3. Weather vs. Climate WEATHER • Local • Short-term (days to months) • Prediction based on current conditions • Current atmospheric conditions CLIMATE • Regional or broader • Long-term (years to decades) • Prediction based on less labile long-term trends • Big picture of how atmosphere behaves

  4. Illustrating weather vs. climate http://www.climate.gov/#education

  5. HOW will the climate change? Everywhere: • Warmer temperatures • Higher annual precipitation • More rain in winter and spring • Increase in extreme weather events – less predictable weather What will this mean for agriculture?

  6. HOW will the climate change? In Michigan: • Warmer temperatures • Higher annual precipitation • More rain in winter and spring • Increase in extreme weather events – less predictable weather What will this mean for agriculture?

  7. HOW will the climate change? In Michigan: • Warmer temperatures • Higher annual precipitation • More rain in winter and spring • Increase in extreme weather events – less predictable weather What will this mean for agriculture?

  8. Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

  9. LTER - Since 1987

  10. Corn Wheat Soybean

  11. Biomass over time Biomass (g/m2)

  12. Research Questions Does climate change affect crop yields? Any guesses?

  13. Hypothesis and predictions Does climate change affect crop yields? If(hypothesis) then(prediction) Hypothesis: Educated guess, general statement Prediction: What you think will happen, more specific Data we have: -Biomass (g/m2) -Total precipitation (May – Sept) -Average soil moisture (May-Sept) -Average temperature(May-Sept)

  14. e.g. Ifclimate change affect crop yield, thenincreased soil moisture will increase crop production.

  15. Methods Prediction: Increased soil moisture will increase biomass Biomass (g/m2) Soil Moisture (%)

  16. Methods Title: The Effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable Effect: Something that might be affected by the change in the independent variable Dependent Var (unit) Independent Var (unit) Cause: Something that is affecting the dependent variable but not affected by dependent variable.

  17. Plotting in Excel e.g. moisture vs. precipitation

  18. Let’s analyze the data! • Divide into 3 groups (corn, wheat, soy) • Spend 15 min plotting graphs • Share the results with the class • Plot: • Biomass vs Precipitation (mm) • Biomass vs Soil Moisture (%) • Biomass vs Temperature (°C)

  19. Results

  20. Effects of Precipitation on Crops Biomass (g/m2) Accumulative Precipitation between May - Sept (mm)

  21. Effects of Soil Moisture on Crops Biomass (g/m2) Soil Moisture (%) Soil Moisture (%) Soil Moisture (%)

  22. Effects of Temperature on Crops

  23. Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm) Soil Moisture (%) Soil Moisture (%) Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm)

  24. Hypothesis: Climate change will increase yields RESULTS (supported predictions in red) • Corn • Increased temperature, increased yield • Increased soil moisture, decreased yield • Soy • Increased precipitation, slightly decreased yield • Wheat • Increased soil moisture, increased yield • Increased precipitation, increased yield

  25. Hypothesis: Climate change will increase MI yields Conclusions • Hypothesis supported for corn and wheat, but not soy • Climate change is likely to have different effects on different crops • Caveats: • May be unmeasured correlated variables • Simplified data –e.g., we didn’t control for when and how the precipitation arrived

  26. Wrap-up • Will climate change increase yields? • IT DEPENDS! • Weather vs. climate: we’re using • variation in WEATHER • to predict the result of changes in CLIMATE

  27. Helpful resources • http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/index.html (NASA explanation of climate vs. weather) • http://www.climate.gov/#education (NOAA interactive climate change graphs) • http://www.msue.msu.edu/kr/default.cfm?node_id=59525 (MSU extension pamphlets)

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