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Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise

Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise. Nick Isaac Biological Records Centre, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology @ drnickisaac. Citizen Science. Big Data. Can Citizen Science deliver the data we need to address the environmental challenges of the 21 st century?.

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Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise

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  1. Citizen Science and Big Data: finding the signal amidst the noise Nick Isaac Biological Records Centre, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology @drnickisaac

  2. Citizen Science Big Data Can Citizen Science deliver the data we need to address the environmental challenges of the 21st century? Environmental Challenges

  3. Environmental Challenges FERA

  4. Big Biodiversity Data is here www.cloudtimes.com

  5. http://www.entangled-bank.org.uk/index.php

  6. www.left.zoo.ox.ac.uk SUMMARY ECOLOGICAL VALUE

  7. Citizen Science Citizens Data collection Feedback, Outreach Researchers Publications

  8. Citizen Science is the new black http://www.ceh.ac.uk/products/publications/ understanding-citizen-science.html

  9. Citizen Science  Environmental Challenges paisagemfabricada.com.br

  10. iBats: Citizen Science  Big Data www.ibats.org.uk

  11. The Big Question Can Citizen Science deliver the data we need to address the environmental challenges of the 21st century?

  12. The Medium-sized Question Can we use existing Citizen Science data to report on the status of biodiversity?

  13. Target 12By 2020 the extinction of known threatened species has been prevented and their conservation status, particularly of those most in decline, has been improved and sustained.

  14. How do we know if the targets have been met? Red List indices • Many species • Temporally-imprecise Botham et al (2011) UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme Annual Report 2011. • Population time-series • Annual estimates of status • Taxonomically restricted

  15. Occurrence records: the third way 440 million records on 90 million records on Big Data Citizen Science  Environmental Challenges Huge potential to detect signals of change But the data are noisy!

  16. Problem: ad hoc recording is biased

  17. Problem: ad hoc recording is biased in time in space detectability effort per visit Number of Species Effort

  18. Aggregation into Atlas periods

  19. Selection & Correction methods Selection Remove the bias, leave the signal The ‘well-sampled set’ Correction by time period, by year, by visit in space

  20. Occupancy: modelling data collection Extant Extinct Occupancy (unobserved) Data generation process Observations Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Statistical separation of “state” and “data generation” processes into separate submodels

  21. Testing the solutions by simulation Simple ‘correction’ models fail easily Selection methods are robust but less powerful Occupancy performs well • in combination with correction and selection Isaac et al (in press) Methods in Ecology & Evolution

  22. Trends in British Biodiversity 1990-2000 Good news: Median change +2.4% Bad news: >1000 species would qualify as VU or worse

  23. Identifying drivers of change Declines in 2-spot ladybird are attributable to the arrival of the invasive Harlequin ladybird Similar patterns across 8 native species in both GB & Belgium Roy et al (2012) Diversity & Distributions, 18: 717–725 davidkennardphotography.com Mike Majerus

  24. The Priority Species Indicator Source: Biodiversity in Your Pocket 2013

  25. Technology -An easy way to record -Great potential for harvesting meta-data -Provide instant feedback to the citizen scientist

  26. "The more instantaneously feedback can be provided, the more motivating it is“ www.ebird.org Phenology Species frequency Species distribution

  27. @NatureNearMe

  28. @NatureNearMe

  29. Looking to the future: more questions Which organisms should we prioritize? • Earthworms, Mycorrhizae …. How to build and nourish a network of citizen scientists? • Feedback, motivation What challenges and opportunities from new data types? • Barcoding, eDNA What environmental challenges are on the horizon? • Nanoparticles, Geo-engineering, Biodiversity offsetting

  30. Conclusions We can report on biodiversity targets for a much wider range of taxa than previously possible A little bit of meta-data would go a long way Support the citizens to become more scientific Addressing big environmental challenges requires fresh thinking

  31. Acknowledgments Bill Sutherland Chris Thomas Tom August David Roy Gary Powney Michael Pocock Arco van Strien

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