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Using results from revisions analysis to improve compilation methods: a case study on revisions of Dutch estimates of GDP volume growth. Contribution to the joint OECD/Eurostat Task Force on “Performing Revisions Analysis for Sub-Annual Economic Statistics” Leendert Hoven Statistics Netherlands.

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Subsequent estimates of GDP growth

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Subsequent estimates of gdp growth

Using results from revisions analysis to improve compilation methods: a case study on revisions of Dutch estimates of GDP volume growth

Contribution to the joint OECD/Eurostat Task Force on “Performing Revisions Analysis for Sub-Annual Economic Statistics”

Leendert Hoven

Statistics Netherlands


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth

Subsequent estimates of GDP growth

  • Quarterly Accounts, flashafter 45 days

  • Quarterly Accounts, regularafter 90 days

  • Yearly estimate, based on QAApril t+1

  • National Accounts, provisionalJuly t+1

  • National Accounts, revised provisionalJuly t+2

  • National Accounts, finalJuly t+3


Summary statistics

Summary statistics


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth

Graph 3. Mean revision and mean absolute revision between consecutive estimates of GDP volume growth, 1990 – 2003


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth

Average contribution of components to revision of GDP growth between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998


Subsequent estimates of gdp growth

Average contribution of components to revision of GDP growth between QA regular and NA final, 1990-1998


Two important findings

Two important findings

  • biggest mean revision between revised provisional estimate and final estimate.

    Quite large differences between short-term statistics and structural business statistics.

    Methodological shortcomings (matched pairs approach sts insufficiently allows for effects of population dynamics).

  • within production approach, commercial services and trade have contributed most to the revisions of GDP growth; short-term source situation particularly bad.


How can we improve early estimates

How can we improve early estimates?

  • improve methodology short-term statistics

  • improve short-term source situation for commercial services and trade

  • more research needed on:

    • validity different assumptions;

    • effects of balancing process;

    • ………………..

    • ........................


Bias correction at the aggregate level

Bias correction at the aggregate level?

  • no guarantee that average bias of past period will also hold in the future

  • ignores the underlying data and subaggregates

  • impact of introduction mew methodologies, changes in data collection, sampling or data processing difficult to capture in the short term


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