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El Ni ñ o/La Ni ñ a & The Influence Rainfall Patterns. Evans Maru Magdalene Wanjiku Noah Adam Purity Mueni Adrajow Admasu. What Is El Ni ñ o?.

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el ni o la ni a the influence rainfall patterns

El Niño/La Niña & The Influence Rainfall Patterns

Evans Maru

Magdalene Wanjiku

Noah Adam

Purity Mueni

Adrajow Admasu

what is el ni o
What Is El Niño?
  • El Niño is a term that refers to anomalously warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is normally characterized by warming of the subsurface layers and large scale weakening of the trade winds in the region.
  • These changes have important consequences over weather/climate around the globe, including East Africa.
slide3

La Nina

  • Scientists refer to the event when exceptionally cool water lies off the coast of South America as La Nina Strong La Nina events have been responsible for the opposite effects on climate as El Nino.
strongest el ni o s
Strongest El Niño\'s

Very strong El Nino events occurred in 1965-1966, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998. They caused significant flooding and damage from California to Mexico to Chile. Effects of El Nino are felt as far away from the Pacific Ocean as Eastern Africa including Kenya.

NB: An El Nino year correspond to the first three months of the ENSO year namely October, November, and December. For example, the ENSO year 1970 starts October 1970 and ends September 1971.

strongest la ninas
Strongest La Ninas

Strong La Nina events occurred in 1955-56, 1964-65, 1973-74, 1988-89 and 1998-2000. They were associated with drought over most parts of Eastern Africa including Kenya.

NB: An La Nina year correspond to the first three months of the ENSO year namely October, November, and December. For example, the La Nina year of 1988 started in October 1988 and ended in September 1989.

classification el ninos la ninas
Classification El Ninos & La Ninas

El Ninos & La Ninas are classified as either Weak, Moderate or Strong depending on the extent of warming/cooling in the Nino areas.

slide10

Since mid September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies have stretched across most of the equatorial Pacific.

  • Recently, positive subsurface anomalies in the central Pacific are expanding eastward. Negative anomalies in the eastern Pacific are strengthening at depth.
weekly sst departures during the last four weeks
Weekly SST Departures during the Last Four Weeks
  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted along the equatorial Pacific and strengthened in the eastern Pacific.
  • From 15 October to 05 November 2014, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific.
oni c evolution since 1950
ONI (ºC): Evolution since 1950

The most recent ONI value (August – October 2014) is 0.2oC.

cpc iri probabilistic enso outlook updated 6 november 2014
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook Updated: 6 November 2014

The chance of El Niño is 58% during the Northern Hemisphere winter and decreases into Spring/summer 2015.

slide16

IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook

Most models favor El Niño (greater than or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop during October-December 2014 and persist through Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 October 2014).

slide17

Summary

  • ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
  • ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
  • Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.
  • There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.*
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