El Ni ñ o/La Ni ñ a & The Influence Rainfall Patterns. Evans Maru Magdalene Wanjiku Noah Adam Purity Mueni Adrajow Admasu. What Is El Ni ñ o?.
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Very strong El Nino events occurred in 1965-1966, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998. They caused significant flooding and damage from California to Mexico to Chile. Effects of El Nino are felt as far away from the Pacific Ocean as Eastern Africa including Kenya.
NB: An El Nino year correspond to the first three months of the ENSO year namely October, November, and December. For example, the ENSO year 1970 starts October 1970 and ends September 1971.
Strong La Nina events occurred in 1955-56, 1964-65, 1973-74, 1988-89 and 1998-2000. They were associated with drought over most parts of Eastern Africa including Kenya.
NB: An La Nina year correspond to the first three months of the ENSO year namely October, November, and December. For example, the La Nina year of 1988 started in October 1988 and ended in September 1989.
El Ninos & La Ninas are classified as either Weak, Moderate or Strong depending on the extent of warming/cooling in the Nino areas.
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (oC) anomalies have stretched across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Average SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks
The most recent ONI value (August – October 2014) is 0.2oC.
The chance of El Niño is 58% during the Northern Hemisphere winter and decreases into Spring/summer 2015.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook the Last Four Weeks
Most models favor El Niño (greater than or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop during October-December 2014 and persist through Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 October 2014).
Merci et au revoir the Last Four Weeks