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Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies in the Midwestern U.S. Rebecca A. Pfeifer

Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies in the Midwestern U.S. Rebecca A. Pfeifer Ag Consultant, New Palestine, IN Otto Doering Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Jane Southworth and J.C. Randolph School of Public and Environmental Affairs

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Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies in the Midwestern U.S. Rebecca A. Pfeifer

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  1. Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies in the Midwestern U.S. Rebecca A. Pfeifer Ag Consultant, New Palestine, IN Otto Doering Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Jane Southworth and J.C. Randolph School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University

  2. Acknowledgments This research was funded by grant number R 824996-01 from the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program of the U.S.E.P.A. The HadCM2 data was provided by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the Hadley Center and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The VEMAP data was obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado.

  3. Climate Change and YOU! Study region Climate change modeled Impact on Farm-Level Decisions planting date variety crop mix Risk Assessments Conclusions & suggestions for further research

  4. Naming Conventions V = VEMAP, current conditions S = Sulfate, moderate climate change G = greenhouse gases, more extreme change 0.5X = half current climate variability 1.0X = current climate variability 2.0X = twice current climate variability

  5. Change in Corn Yields under Climate Scenarios

  6. Change in Soybean Yields under Climate Scenarios

  7. Change in Winter Wheat Yields under Climate Scenarios

  8. Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

  9. Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

  10. Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

  11. Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

  12. Potential for better adapted genotype Comparison of Yield Response Curves

  13. Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Current Climate

  14. Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Sulfate Scenario

  15. Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Greenhouse Gases Scenario

  16. Returns to Resources by Site and Scenario

  17. Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Southern Illinois

  18. Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Eastern Wisconsin

  19. Risk and Distribution of Corn Yields by Climate Variability Eastern Wisconsin Southern Illinois

  20. Conclusions Climate change will impact midwestern grain farmers, input suppliers, ag financial institutions Impacts will vary significantly within region, especially north to south Adaptation strategies include equipment improvements (working rates), later planting dates, varieties better suited to mid-season heat and climate variability, crop mix adjustments, changes in operation financing

  21. Further research Where are the better-suited varieties? Will demand for better adapted crops make them worthwhile to grow? As time passes, models will improve – update research… Will ag policy keep pace with changes to the farming environment

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