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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems

Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems . Moldova Country Program. Gretel Gambarelli World Bank Chisinau, 28 October 2009. What do we have to prepare for?. Unavoidable warming. Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007. What is Adaptation?.

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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems

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  1. Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems Moldova Country Program Gretel Gambarelli World Bank Chisinau, 28 October 2009

  2. What do we have to prepare for? Unavoidable warming Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007.

  3. What is Adaptation? Source: Commission of the European Communities, 2009.

  4. Why acting now is important? (1/2) Because: Many of the measures that will help deal with future climate (“adaptation to climate change”) can also help resolve today’s problems. • Example: • As a consequence of climate change, droughts may become more frequent and severe. Investing in drought-tolerant crops can help reduce future losses due to climate change, but also today’s damages when the climate is drier than normal. Sunflowers in Moldova, summer 2007

  5. Why acting now is important? (2/2) Because: The more you are prepared, the lesser the damage caused by future climate will be. • Example: • Under current climate agro-meteorological services in Moldova potentially yield economic benefits of EUR 3.6 million per year (VTT, Finland). • Under climate change, agro-meteorological services can further reduce agricultural losses and increase economic benefits

  6. Which questions to ask about adaptation? Improve adaptation to current climate What are the current climate-related risks in agriculture? What coping strategies are being used today? Are they enough? NO What are future climate risks given vulnerability of agriculture to climate change? YES No more action needed Are current coping measures sufficient to deal with future problems? YES What are the non-climate related drivers of future risk and vulnerability? NO Identify adaptation to future climate

  7. What are the objectives of this program in Moldova? (1/2) Work with Moldovan people, experts, and officials to better understand: What problems may arise in agriculture from future changes in climate What can be done now to avoid or reduce likely future damages to agricultural production and the economy and take advantage of any opportunities (ADAPTATION)

  8. What are the objectives of this program in Moldova? (2/2) Stimulate Better understand Identify and analyze Source: Commission of the European Communities, 2009.

  9. More specifically this program will help you… • Analyze the potential impacts on the agricultural sector from climate change at the agro-ecological zone scale. • Assess the country’s existing adaptive capacity. • Identify the most vulnerable regions and production systems. • Explore possibleadaptation options that can decrease vulnerability – and in some cases exploit new opportunities. • Analyze and prioritize adaptation options using a combination of economic and participatory approaches. • Assess potential barriers to adaptation (i.e., policy, economic, institutional, and technological, factors). • Assess capacity gaps and needs of local and national institutions and agricultural producers to implement adaptation options. • Develop a menu of Climate Change Adaptation Options for Agriculture that identifies priorities for investments, capacity development and policy improvement.

  10. What should the menu of adaptation options look like? Adaptation options should: • Be practical and operational • Be cost-effective • Improve resilience to climate change and increase productivity ( “win-win”) • Where possible also help reduce GHG emissions (“win-win-win”) • Be “robust” to a range of climate futures • IMPORTANT: we cannot preciselypredict how climate change will hit Moldova, but we can identify adaptation measures that will be beneficial in a number of future climate scenarios

  11. How is this program organized?

  12. Develop Draft Country Note Final Country Note Consultation and Awareness Raising Workshop Find out what else you know about climate change in Moldova and possible ways to adapt Agree on information gaps and needs for additional analysis Results from Impact Assessment Choose modeling approach based on information needs and data Develop a Draft menu of adaptation options (short-, medium-, and long-term) National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference Final Menu of Adaptation Options for Moldova Regional Knowledge Exchange workshop Improve the preparedness of Moldova to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change

  13. Today’s objectives Discuss the following questions:

  14. This program will help you better understand and discuss future climate risks and what you can do to adapt. We need your full participation to ensure that the program makes the best use of and builds on local knowledge. You will then have to decide whether, when and how to implement adaptation measures, and how you might like us and other development partners to help.

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