Review of noaa intensity forecasting experiment ifex 2008 accomplishments and plans for 2009
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Review of NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) 2008 Accomplishments and Plans for 2009. Eric Uhlhorn, Frank Marks, John Gamache, Sim Aberson, Jason Dunion NOAA/AOML/HRD. Highlights. Second busiest season (by flight hours) TC genesis of Dolly and Fay

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Review of NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) 2008 Accomplishments and Plans for 2009

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Review of noaa intensity forecasting experiment ifex 2008 accomplishments and plans for 2009

Review of NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) 2008 Accomplishments and Plans for 2009

Eric Uhlhorn, Frank Marks,

John Gamache, Sim Aberson, Jason Dunion

NOAA/AOML/HRD


Highlights

Highlights

  • Second busiest season (by flight hours)

  • TC genesis of Dolly and Fay

  • Pre- and a post-storm ocean surveys in Gustav and Ike, including floats/drifters/expendables

  • HFIP/Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) real-time Doppler data for TDR missions in Ike

  • Rapid intensification event in Paloma

  • Numerous collaborators


Dolly 6 p3 and 3 g iv flights from 07 20 to 07 23

Dolly – 6 P3 and 3 G-IV flights from 07/20 to 07/23

  • Nearly continuous coverage from before genesis to hurricane and landfall.

  • Looked at convective bursts, arc clouds, SFMR winds in on- and off-shore flows, ocean structure.


Review of noaa intensity forecasting experiment ifex 2008 accomplishments and plans for 2009

7/21 23Z

7/22 11Z

7/22 23Z

7/22 00Z

7/23 01Z

7/22 13Z

  • Evolution of Dolly’s wind field at 1 km during last 24 h before landfall


Gustav 8 p3 4 giv 08 28 to 09 03

Gustav – 8 P3/4 GIV 08/28 to 09/03

  • A pre- and a post-storm ocean survey in collaboration with EMC, UM/RSMAS, and URI, and coordination with AOML/PhOD, the University of Washington, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Air Force 53rd WRS, and CARCAH to deploy 12 floats/drifters ahead of the storm.

  • A landfall flight coordinated

    with mobile teams from UF/FCMP,

    TTU, LSU, UA-Hunstville, and the

    Center for Severe Weather Research.

  • Superobs sent for realtime EnKF

    assimilation in WRF-ARW at TACC

    (in collaboration with TAMU and PSU).

  • Coverage from rapid intensification

    through landfall.

  • Looked at mesoscale convective

    systems and potentially tornadic rainbands

    near landfall and SFMR validation in

    shallow bathymetry.


Gustav coordinated upper ocean response experiment 08 28 09 03

Gustav – Coordinated Upper-Ocean Response Experiment (08/28 – 09/03)


Gustav coordinated landfall survey

Gustav – Coordinated Landfall Survey

UAH

UF/FCMP

TTU StickNet

Offshore flow

Onshore flow


Ike 11 p3 8 g iv 09 05 to 09 15

Ike – 11 P3/8 G-IV 09/05 to 09/15

  • A pre- and a post-storm ocean survey in collaboration with EMC, UM/RSMAS, and URI, and coordination with AOML/PhOD, the University of Washington, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Air Force 53rd WRS, and CARCAH to deploy 9 floats/drifters ahead of the storm.

  • A landfall flight coordinated with

    mobile teams from UF/FCMP,

    TTU, LSU, UA-Hunstville, and the

    Center for Severe Weather

    Research.

  • Superobs sent for realtime EnKF

    assimilation in WRF-ARW at

    TACC (in collaboration with

    TAMU and PSU).


Ike coordinated upper ocean response experiment 09 08 09 15

Ike – Coordinated Upper-Ocean Response Experiment (09/08 – 09/15)


Hfip tacc real time for ike

HFIP-TACC Real-time for Ike

Ensemble Track

Ensemble max 10-m wind


Paloma ri 3 p3 2 g 1v 11 05 to 11 08

Paloma RI – 3 P3/2 G-1V 11/05 to 11/08

11/07 06Z

11/07 09Z

11/08 16Z

11/08 19Z


Plans for 2009

Plans for 2009

  • Continue TDR missions and real-time Doppler data transmission

  • Continue coordination with NESDIS Ocean Winds

  • Coordinate with 53rd for additional float/drifter deployments

  • Commence joint experiment with Dept. of Interior/MMS for Loop Current study


Plan for noaa wp 3d profiling over mms moorings in collaboration with aoml hrd aoc tpc ncep

Plan for NOAA WP-3D profiling over MMS Moorings (In collaboration with AOML HRD, AOC, TPC, NCEP)

Deliverables include:

V, T, S profiles to 1000 m @ 2-m resolution.

Surface winds (SFMR, GPS) provided by HRD.

Atmospheric profiles of V, T and RH @ 5-m resolution.

  • Goal:To observe and improve our understanding of the LC response to the near-surface wind structure during TC passages. Specific objectives are:

  • The oceanic response of the LC to TC forcing; and,

  • Influence of the LC response on the atmospheric boundary layer and intensity.


Summary quality ocean data needed for coupled models

Summary: Quality ocean data needed for coupled models!

Good data set-serves as the prototype of ocean/atmosphere measurements .

Combine adaptive aircraft surveys with moored, drifter and ship based measurements as part of the MMS/SAIC Dynamics of the Loop Current Study with the NOAA HFIP (AOML, NCEP), NSF and NASA (leveraging assets this year).

Negative feedback (cooling/mixing induced by strong winds and CCR) as opposed to positive feedback over the LC/ WCR. Need to update OHC climatology in Atlantic basin.

SST modulated by warm and cold ocean features that have to be properly initialized in ocean models and mixing processes impact fluxes.

Targeted temperature and current measurements needed to assess mixing schemes, fluxes and evaluate initialization schemes. Expendables (AXCP, AXCTD) drifters and floats required for satellite and oceanic and coupled model evaluations.


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