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Presented at Kaohsiung Water Forum April 21-25, 2013 – Kaohsiung Taiwan. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment in City Level Greater Malang, Palembang City and Tarakan Island. Budhi Setiawan Civil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Presented at Kaohsiung Water Forum

April 21-25, 2013 – Kaohsiung Taiwan

Climate Risk and

Adaptation Assessment in City Level

Greater Malang, Palembang City and Tarakan Island

BudhiSetiawan

Civil Engineering Department, Sriwijaya University INDONESIA

Senior Technical Advisor on Office for Climate Change Resilience–

Ministry of National Development Planning

outline
Outline
  • Climate Risk and Adaptation Assesssment Framework in Indonesia
  • Flood Risk and Adaptation Method
  • Landslide Risk and Adaptation Method
  • Analysis of Climate Risk and Adaptation in :
    • Greater Malang
    • Palembang City
    • Tarakan Island
approaches in research of climate change impact cciava modified from ipcc 2007
Approaches in Research of Climate Change Impact (CCIAVA)(Modified from IPCC, 2007)
slide5

Risk Assessment Approach

Elements of Built Environment

Additional analysis/ modeling

  • Climate stimuli
  • Temperature
  • Rainfall
  • Sea level
  • Social
  • Population density
  • # Vulnerable group
  • etc
  • Bio-Physical
  • # Houses
  • Cultivated area
  • etc
  • CC Hazards (by sectors)
  • Water resources
    • availability ()
    • flood & drought ()
  • Agricultural
    • production ()
    • planting failure
    • harvest failure
    • lower productivity
  • Health
    • incidence rate ()
    • DBD
    • Malaria
    • Diarrhea
    • Coastal
    • inundated area ()
    • SLR
    • Extreme events

IPCC

AR4

  • Economic
  • # Assets
  • GDP growth
  • etc
  • Vulnerability Components
  • (E)xposure
  • (S)ensitivity
  • (A)daptive- (C)apacity
  • Projected changes in :
  • mean
  • variability
  • extremes
  • Surface
  • condition :
  • topography
  • land cover
  • etc

(R) isk = H×V

H = F(f,M,p)

Pseudo Equation (Wisner et al., 2004)

slide6

Adaptation Planning with DRR Framework

(1)Understand the climatic hazard

(2)Assess Risks

(3)Reduce Risks

  • Hazard Assessments
  • Vulnerability Assessments
  • Risk Maps
  • Potential Impact Assess.
  • Reduce Hazard Level
  • Reduce Vulnerability Level

uncertainty

  • Structural
  • Technological
  • Socio-cultural
  • etc. measures

past proxy data

  • Macro-scale :
  • National scale
  • Policy & Laws
  • Long-term planning
  • Meso-scale :
  • Province & Municipality
  • Policy / Strategy
  • Mid-term Planning
  • Micro-scale :
  • Municipality
  • Spatial planning
  • Adaptation action
  • To save human lives
  • To save investments

presentobs. data

future climate

model

(4)Transfer Risks

  • Financial instruments
  • Reduce economic loss
  • Accelerate recovery

Climate scientists, engineers, economic & policy analysts

Climate scientists

Planners, Decision makers

slide7

(2) Risk Analysis

  • VulnerabilityAnalysis :
  • Bio-Physic, Social, Economic
  • Baseline
  • Dynamic Vulnerability

(1)Science Basis

ClimatevAnalysis & Projection

  • Hazard Analysis :
  • Water shortage/drought
  • Flood
  • Landslide

Rainfall andtemperature inbaselineand projection

Vulnerability Map

Risk Map as Impact of Climate Change

HazardMap

(3) Adaptation Policy

  • Identify of risk area
  • Prioritize ofadaptation program
  • Recommendation
general method
General Method

Hazard Stimulation (climatic driven)

H / V Components (non-climatic driven)

Hazards (H)

Vulnerabilities (V)

H, V & R Analysis (Baseline/B & Projection/P)

GIS

R : H x V (E,S,AC)

Risks (R)

Adaptation Policy & Strategy

Adaptation Analysis (B & P)

Adaptation Measures (Programs& Activities)

slide10

Swamp and river

Inundation

Land Use and RTRW

PDA Statistic

AdministrativeBoundary

Drainage

Infrastructure

Building

Data Process

Vulnerability

Hazard

Risk analysis

Adaptation strategy

slide12

Triggering Factor

Environmental Factor

STEP I

Landuse

Geology

Building

Soil Type

Density

Slope

Landslide Occurences

Rainfall

Infrastructure

CRD

IDF

STEP II

Ground water Table Recharge

Soil Strength Decreases

Landslide Hazard Analysis

(Map of Hazard)

Vulnerability Analysis

(Map of Landslide Vulnerability)

STEP III

Risk= Hazard x Vulnerability

(Map of Landslide Risk)

STEP IV

STEP V

Adaptation Strategy

slide13

Analysis of Climate risk and adaptation assessment in Greater malang (flood and landslide)

slide14

Climate condition in Greater Malang

1 yr

5 yr

2 yr

10 yr

Relationship between monthly rainfall and probability of extreme rainfall

Probability of exceedence rainfall with return periods 1, 2, 5, and 10 years

flood risk in baru city
Flood Risk in Baru City

Baseline

Projection

slide18

Flood Risk in Malang City

Baseline

Projection

slide21

Landslide Hazard in Greater Malang

Hazard Baseline Map of December2006,

as the most wet month

Hazard Baseline Map of December2007

as the most dry month

slide23

Landslide risk map for baseline condition

(Observation data)

Landslide risk map for baseline condition

(Simulation data)

Landslide Risk Area of Great Malang

Landslide risk map for projection condition

regional climate
Regional Climate

Aldrian and Susanto (2003)

Sumselberiklimbasah; batasantaratipemonsunal (satupuncak) danekuatorial (duapuncak) ?

(CurahHujandi Asia Tenggara  petaawal 1900-an,

Broek, 1944)

slide31

Past Local Climate in Palembang

Equatorial

Monsunal

Limit of dry/wet monthfrom Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics

Ekuatorial in dry season

De gemiddelde jaartemperaturen op de kustplaatsen verschillen minder dan l°C. en bewegen zich, voor zoover bekend, tusschen 26.6 en 27.3° C. ; het gemiddelde verschil tusschen dag- en nachttemperatuur is 5 a 6° C. ; dat tusschen de warmste en de koudste maand iets meer dan 1° C.

temperature
TEMPERATURE

Temperature :

  • Monthly mean temperature has two peaks that seems to lag about one month or more from the equinoxes with an average value of slightly above 27° C. It is of interest to note that the temperature difference between warmest (May) and coolest (January) months is about 1° C. (C. Lekkerkerker, 1916).
  • Source : Hadi, 2011
  • The trend of temperature does not show significant increasing from year of 1951 to 2030. From the 3 scenarios SRES  the temperature increase to 1° C relativeto (1961-1990)
  • Figure below shows Baseline condition of temperature for baseline (1955-1999) and projection of temperature (2009-2099).

Development

Verification  weighting

Projection

  • Source : Hadi, 2011
rainfall
RAINFALL
  • Source : Hadi, 2011
  • Source : Hadi, 2011
  • Slightly different in the mountains area on the North West it becomes unclear in dry season (rainfall is relatively higher)

Rainfall analysis are using some scenarios of IPCC, although the models show large discrepancy from observations, the increase of rainfall during the last decade was obtained from the results from A1B and A2 scenarios. In general, results from these two scenarios produce similar rainfall variations at least until early 2030s.

  • The models shows the spatial variability of rainfall for baseline condition (1951-1990) by using Observation data (left) and SRA1B scenarios of IPCC.
  • Source : Hadi, 2011
hazard analysis
Hazard analysis

Baseline (2010)

Projection (2030)

vulnerability
Vulnerability

Baseline (2010)

Projection (2030)

difference analysis level of vulnerability
Difference Analysis Level of Vulnerability

Messo

Micro

Local

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Projection

Projection

Projection

risk analysis
Risk Analysis
  • R= H x V

Baseline (2010)

Projection (2030)

tarakan island
Tarakan Island
  • On east-side of Kalimantan, Indonesia
  • Located at 3o14\'23"-3o26\'37" Northern Latitude and 117o30\'50"-117o40\'12“ Eastern Longitude
  • 61 Landslide occurences until 2010
  • Slope0-15%
  • Extreme scenario of rainfall intensity is 100 mm/Hours (with the longest duration is 2 hours)
  • Annual rainfall has two peak; on April (338 mm with average monthly temperature) and November, 360 mm mmt), meanwhile the most dry is on February (252 mm mmt)
  • The estimation of temperature increasing is higher than 0,5 degree C/100 years
slide41

Survey Titik Longsor di Kota Tarakan

61 points of Landslide Occurences in Tarakan

slide42

Annual pattern of climate

Rainfall

Temperatur

slide44

Survey lokasi longsor

Hazard Components:

  • Landslide occurence
  • Slope
  • Geology
  • Ground Water Recharge

Stabiliy modelling

Modelling

Landslide existing map

Probability index

slide45

Hazard Components :

  • Landslide occurence
  • Slope
  • Geology
  • Ground Water Recharge
slide46

Hazard Components:

  • Landslide occurence
  • Slope
  • Geology
  • Ground water recharge
slide47

Rainfall - Recharge

Rainfall

Hazard Components:

  • Landslide occurence
  • Slope
  • Geologi
  • Ground Water Recharge

Using Cummulative Rainfall Departure Method (CRD)

slide48

Ground Water Recharge Modelling in Tarakan Island

Februari

Maret

April

Mei

Juni

Januari

Juli

Agustus

September

Oktober

November

Desember

landslide hazard 2020 in tarakan island
Landslide Hazard (2020) In Tarakan Island

Februari

Maret

April

Mei

Juni

Januari

Desember

Juli

September

Agustus

Oktober

November

landslide risk 2020 in tarakan island
Landslide Risk (2020) in Tarakan Island

Februari

Maret

April

Mei

Juni

Januari

Desember

Juli

September

Agustus

Oktober

November

landslide adaptatation assessment
Landslide Adaptatation Assessment

Refferring :

  • Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS)
  • Landslide Risk Assessment and Mitigation (LARAM-2000) Describe 4 typical works, i.e : Drainage installation, Slope modification, Retaining Wall, and Internal Slope Reinforcement
slide56

Risk

Design phase

Evaluation

Client/Owner/Regulator to decide to accept or treat technical specialist to advise

Reconsider

Conceptual design

Design to implement preferred site

Review preliminary design and select optimum method of stabilising landslide

Feedback

Detailed design of short and long term monitoring system

Specify any special measures specific to construction through landslide zone

Construction phase

Install monitoring system

Monitoring

Maintenance phase

Feedback

Construct

Feedback

No

Is project performing satisfactory ?

Revised design

Yes

Feedback

Continue periodic monitoring

phase of location assessment
Phase of Location Assessment

Landuse in High Risk Landslide

Map of landslide Adaptation

Adaptation and non-adaptation area

Evaluation of Landslide Risk

Assessment of Landslide Location

adaptation modelling process
Adaptation Modelling Process

2 Ground Survey

  • Lokasi longsor berada pada Kecamatan Tarakan Utara, Kelurahan juata laut,
  • Slope 21-40%
  • Geologi batu pasir
  • Tata guna lahan berada di pinggir laut dengan kawasan terbangun
  • Vegetasi rapat
  • Safety factor 0,79
  • kejadian longsor 3 titik (56173,380233), (561024,380413), (560885,380305)

1 Risk Analysis

3 Collecting Data

4 Adaptation Measurement

Desain kestabilan lereng menghasilkan FK = 1,649 (stabil)

Kondisi awal dengan FK = 0,790 (tidak stabil)

ad