1 / 14

Andrew Bennett, Caroline Jones, Stephen Moseley, Ken Mylne, Clive Pierce, Nigel Roberts, …

Communicating forecast uncertainty from the Met Office convective-scale ensemble for the London 2012 Olympic Games. Andrew Bennett, Caroline Jones, Stephen Moseley, Ken Mylne, Clive Pierce, Nigel Roberts, … Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB. Outline. Why? How? Products tour Feedback

emi-washington
Download Presentation

Andrew Bennett, Caroline Jones, Stephen Moseley, Ken Mylne, Clive Pierce, Nigel Roberts, …

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Communicating forecast uncertainty from theMet Office convective-scale ensemble for theLondon 2012 Olympic Games Andrew Bennett, Caroline Jones, Stephen Moseley, Ken Mylne, Clive Pierce, Nigel Roberts, … Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB

  2. Outline • Why? • How? • Products tour • Feedback • Summary

  3. Aims • Advertise the cutting-edge science being delivered by the Met Office • Enhance forecasting guidance by providing a range of scenarios for decision-making • Clear-language documentation of the products that everyone can understand • Demonstrate the utility of probabilistic, high-resolution forecasting

  4. Met Office ensemble systems Early 2012 • Global (MOGREPS-G) • 12 members, 6h update • Products use 24 lagged members • 60km at mid-lats, 70 levels, to T+72h • IC and model parameters perturbations • MOGREPS-15 • Run at ECMWF • Global • 24 members • To T+15 days • 60km, 70 levels • Regional (MOGREPS-R) • 12 members, 6h update • Products use 24 lagged members • 18km at mid-lats, 70 levels, to T+60h • IC and model parameters perturbations • MOGREPS-UK • 12 members, 6h update • 2.2km, 70 levels • IC perturbations and BC from MOGREPS-R (no high-res perturbations) • Initially to T+6h on IBM Power6 • To T+36h on upgrade to Power7

  5. Holes filled in Mogreps-UK… …with Neighbourhood method Nigel Roberts Creation of probability of rain product Undersampling leaves “holes” of zero-probability where showers could still occur

  6. Descriptors Local time Documentation for different audiences The front page

  7. Rainfall products Chance of rain over coming day Chance of rain within each hour Chance of amostly(very)wethour • Derived from 5min timestep rain rates • Thresholds: any (>0.2 mm/h), heavy (>4 mm/h), torrential (>16mm/h) e.g. chance of torrential (>16mm/h) rain over period 06:00 to 00:00 GMT e.g. chance of torrential (>16mm/h) rain within each hour e.g. chance of a mostly wet (>0.2 mm/h) hour MOGREPS-UK 29th July 03:00 GMT run

  8. Temperature products • Chance of temperature exceeding 20, 25, 30, 32°C at screen-level – useful for sea breezes • Daytime ensemble mean max temperatures • All over 12 hours (09:00 to 21:00 GMT) 18th Aug 2012: hottest day of year (32.4°C recorded in Suffolk) Chance >30°C Ensemble mean max temp MOGREPS-UK 18th Aug 03:00 GMT run

  9. Wind products Jim Trice • Derived from hourly instantaneous winds at 10m • Sustained wind and wind gust • Thresholds: strong (> 20mph), light (< 6mph), Beaufort scale (> 12, 17, 29, 23 mph) • Areas: Whole UK, Weymouth Bay sailing venue e.g. chance of light (<6mph) sustained winds at each hour over UK over Weymouth Bay MOGREPS-UK 8th Aug 21:00 GMT run

  10. Site-specific products 24 Olympic venues: All England Tennis Club Wimbledon Earls Court Excel Greenwich Park Hampton Court Palace Horseguards Parade Hyde Park Lords Cricket Ground North Greenwich Arena Olympic Park The Mall The Royal Artillery Barracks Wembley Arena Wembley Stadium Eton Dorney Weymouth And Portland Brands Hatch Hadleigh Farm Lee Valley White Water Centre City Of Coventry Stadium Millennium Stadium Old Trafford St James Park Hampden Park

  11. Rowing Cosswinds

  12. Feedback • “The Mogreps-UK products were extremely useful for the Olympic forecasting at Weymouth”– Jim Trice, Met Office Olympic forecaster • Assisted use of Weymouth Bay forecasts • Characteristics of 300m model were unknown - MOGREPS-UK provided confidence • Chance of high temperatures useful for forecasting of sea breezes • “I was especially impressedby the variety of products and by the clear explanations that accompanied each of the products.” – Beth Ebert, Research Program Leader, Australian Bureau of Meteorology • Over 25,500 web page visits • Mean viewing time implies products were being used

  13. Summary • Delivered products from MOGREPS-UK that were • Focussed on high-impact weather (high temporal and spatial resolution) • Relevant to the general public, Olympic forecasters and LOCOG • Presented and documented in an understandable and clear manner to the target audience • Showcased cutting-edge science at the Met Office • Demonstrated the utility of probabilistic, high resolution forecast products

  14. Thanks for listening!

More Related