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Simulating cropland sites in Europe preliminary results

Simulating cropland sites in Europe preliminary results. Martin Wattenbach, Pete Smith. outline. The cropland sites and the current status of work The DNDC model Prelimenary simulation results Carlow Ireland Grignon, France Lonzee, Belgium - climate data example Data requirements

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Simulating cropland sites in Europe preliminary results

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  1. Simulating cropland sites in Europepreliminary results Martin Wattenbach, Pete Smith

  2. outline • The cropland sites and the current status of work • The DNDC model • Prelimenary simulation results • Carlow Ireland • Grignon, France • Lonzee, Belgium - climate data example • Data requirements • Climate data • Crop data • Soil data • Next steps

  3. The sites – status of work Site short Country Site name Site n° name MAIN SITES Flux data for 2004, 2005, 2006. all years simulated, additional data required Gebesee DE-Geb Germany 3 Flux data for 2004, 2005. not simulated, essential soil data requested 8 Klingenberg Germany DE-Kli Flux data for 2005. simulated, additional data required France Grignon FR-Gri 12 Flux data for 2004, 2005. not simulated, essential soil data requested. Denmark Risbyholm 42 DK-Ris Flux data for 2004, 2005, 2006. 2005 simulated, climate data requested 56 Spain El Saler-Sueca ES-Es2 Flux data for 2004, 2005, 2006. all years simulated, more data required 73 Belgium Lonzee BE-Lon Flux data for 2004, 2005. not simulated, essential climate, soil data requested UK East Saltoun 76 UK-Esa Flux data for 2004, 2005 all years simulated, first results Ireland Carlow 80 IE-Car1 Flux data for 2005, simulated, first results from MSc thesis by Dominique Dietiker Oensingen Switzerland 103 CH-Oen2

  4. Ancillary sites – work status Site short Country Site name Site n° name ASSOCIATED SITES Flux data for 2005. not simulated, essential data required France Lamasquère xx FR-Lam Flux data for 2005. not simulated, essential data required France Auradé xx FR-Aur Flux data for 2005 - Molenweg ? not simulated, essential data required. Netherlands Cabauw 67 NL-Cab1 Flux data for 2004, 2005, not simulated, essential data required Italy Borgo Cioffi 26 It-Bci

  5. The DNDC model DeNitrification-DeComposition

  6. Carlow – preliminary results

  7. Preliminary results - Carlow

  8. Preliminary results - Carlow

  9. Preliminary results - Carlow by Mike Williams

  10. Carlow – preliminary results

  11. Preliminary results - Carlow • What is Allegro Bravo ? • Epoxiconazole, Kresoxim-methyl • Chlorothalonil • Two paper investigate the possible effect of Chlorothalonil on soil micro-organisms: • “Effects of the fungicides benomyl, captan and chlorothalonil on soil microbial activity and nitrogen dynamics in laboratory incubations” by Chen et al. (2001) • Part of the soils were amended with ground alfalfa leaves or ground wheat straw. • fungicides suppressed the peak soil respiration in unamended soil by 30-50% • different effects in the amended soils • effects of the fungicides on soil microbial activity and nitrogen dynamics depended on the quality of the organic materials added to the soil • “Suppression of Chlorothalonil degradation in soil after repeated application” by Motonaga et al. 1998 • soil was treated sequentially with 40 mg/kg dry weight of chlorothalonil • resulted in the degradation suppression of chlorothalonil and accumulation of the metabolite 4-hydroxy-2,5,6-trichloroisophthalonitrile (TPN-OH) in soil • TPN-OH pretreatment also suppressed soil respiration and TPN-OH was more persistent in soil than chlorothalonil, indicating that toxicity of residual TPN-OH may suppress the degradation of chlorothalonil in soil

  12. Grignon – prelimnary results

  13. Grignon – prelimnary results

  14. Grignon – preliminary results

  15. Grignon – preliminary results

  16. Grignon – preliminary results • In 2005 there is no recorded Fungicide application • May 2004 and 2006 fungicide was applied • Is there a missing record of the 2005 event ?

  17. Lonzee – climate data example

  18. Lonzee – climate data example

  19. Lonzee – climate data example

  20. Lonzee – climate data example

  21. Lonzee – climate data example

  22. Data requirements – climatic drivers

  23. Data requirements - soil

  24. Data requirements - crop

  25. Data requirements - management

  26. summary • First results are promising – fungicide effect seems to be real • Would be interesting to check other sites • Data availability is crucial for model applications • Climate, soil and management data are the essential basis • Next step are: • uncertainty analysis • Up-scaling for regions and Europe

  27. Thank you !

  28. model Bayesian calibration data model model Next steps Prior pdf Posterior pdf

  29. Monte Carlo – multi model run DNDC* model Next steps Output distribution Input distribution The discrepancy between simulated mean value from the Monte Carlo runs and the annual value obtained from a single run using the best estimates. suggest that using the best estimate may not lead to the most probable model result. * DeNitrification-DeComposition model

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