2004 Highlights Environmental Analysis & Research Team (EAR)

1. 2004 HighlightsEnvironmental Analysis & Research Team (EAR) 2005 PNW-FIA Client Meeting 15 March 2005 Troutdale, OR

2. Who we are • Full-time scientists • Dave Azuma • Tara Barrett • Jeremy Fried • Demetrios Gatziolis • Andy Gray • Part-time scientists • Vicente Monleon (SCEP) • Todd Schroeder (Ph.D. candidate)

3. Our Mission • Policy relevant, hypothesis based, research and development • Inventory techniques research • Design and guidance on inventory implementation & QA • State liasons (Andy, Dave, Jeremy) • Analytic consultations

4. 50 (23 CA, 27 OR/WA) studies/collaborations • ODF: LIDAR model for crowns & terrain • ODF: Riparian stratification & plot design • OSU: Forest canopy structure sampling • OSU: Carbon dynamics uncertainty modeling • Sonoma State: P. Ramorum host map accuracy • UWisc: Wildland urban interface mapping • UCB: Historic Weiselander plots and maps for CA • UMontana: Classifying stand structure via SVS • S&PF: Sudden oak death remeasurement • National Fire Plan: Post-fire remeasurement • PNW: Community composition & gradient analysis • PNW/JFSP: GNNfire fuel maps • PNW/R3: FIA BioSum ORCA/AZNM + Biosummatic

5. Juniper forest expanded from 436 thousand acres in 1936 to 3+ million acres Of the 3 million acres of juniper savanna, 1 million have more than 25 trees per acre Even if only half of savanna lands show increases in juniper density, Oregon will have over 5 million acres of juniper forest in 20 years Western juniper – Dave Azuma

6. John Day riparian pilot – Vicente Monleon • Assess efficiency • Of two plot shapes (circular vs. rectangular) • Of two plot sizes (one vs. both sides of the stream). • Develop estimators of population attributes when sample locations are obtained from a GIS-based stream network • Compare characteristics of riparian forests vs. upland forest in the John Day watershed. • Evaluate stability of indicators of vegetation degradation as sampling protocols vary (with EPA)

7. Invasives in OR – Andy Gray Proportion of P3 plots with 1 or more nonnative plants by ecoregion (overall=71%)

8. Proportion of species that are nonnative

9. Barrett, Tara M. Pre-epidemic mortality rates for common Phytophthora ramorum host tree species in California. (In press, proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Science Symposium II) • SOD mortality first found 1995 in tanoaks. • Average annual mortality 1981-84 to 1991-94 of host trees: • 0.43 +/- 0.09 percent (natural) • 1.02 +/- 0.13 percent (total) • In 14 California counties that are under quarantine, volume of 9 host species increased an estimated 4 to 28 percent between 1981-84 and 1991-94. • Best guess of longer term trend: hardwood timberland host species (bigleaf maple, California black oak, California laurel, Pacific madrone, and tanoak) had substantial volume/biomass increases from the late 1960s to the early 1990s. Infected coast live oak, Big Sur State Park, January 2005

10. Normalizing a long time series of LANDSAT data to characterize early successional forest patterns in western Oregon Todd Schroeder Slow Fast

12. GNNfire: EWA map accuracyOhmann, Pierce, Wimberly, Fried 1000 hour fuels BasalArea QMD Large snag vol.

13. Jointly optimizing fuel treatments and biomass plant sites1Jeremy Fried and PJ Daugherty • FIA BioSum MIP • Mixed integer programming variant • Simultaneous optimization of: • Fuel treatment prescription • Biomass plant siting • Biomass plant capacity 1Winner or the 2005 INFORMS Best Forestry Paper award.

14. In N. CA, SW/Central OR, up to • $9 billion net revenue • 12 billion cu. ft. merch. • 124 million green tons biomass • 8 million acres treated • 47 biomass processing facilities • 1000+ MW over 10 years Fried JS, Daugherty PJ. Jointly optimizing selection of fuel treatments and siting of biomass facilities for landscape-scale fire hazard reduction. Information Science and Operations Research. [submitted]