County population and labor force projections new jersey 2008 to 2018
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County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2008 to 2018. County Projections Procedures. Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties. Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force.

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County ProjectionsProcedures

  • Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties.

  • Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force.

  • Distribute county net total migration to individual age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern.

  • Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each step.


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Population Projectionsfor New JerseyOverview

Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2018

2008-2018

2000-2008

1990-2000

2008-2018

2000-2008

1990-2000

  • New Jersey’s 2008-2018 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.


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County Population: 2008 and 2018

  • Population is projected to increase in all counties except Cape May, with various growth rate, from 2008 to 2018.



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Population Growth by Region

  • The Coastal and Central regions will continue to lead the state’s population growth from 2008 to 2018.

  • The rate of population growth in the Northern region is projected to be slower than other regions between 2008 and 2018.


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Population Growth by Region

  • The rural Northwestern counties will have substantial population growth from their small population bases.

  • Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected to be the fastest growing county in New Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in the Southern region.


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Population Projections by county

  • Bergen County will continue to be the state’s most populous county.

  • By 2018, Ocean will replace Hudson as the state’s fifth most populous county; while Morris (ranked 10th in 2008) and Passaic(ranked 9th in 2008) will exchange their population rankings in the state.

  • Salem will continue to be the least populous county, and Cape May will be the only other county with less than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2018.


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Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

  • Hispanics, Multiracial and Other Races are projected to grow fast.


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Projections of County Population by Race

  • The share of non-Hispanic Whites in the state’s population is projected to decline gradually.

  • Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion of non-Hispanic whites in its population (86% in 2018).

  • By 2018, non-Hispanic whites will account for just aboutone-third of Essex and Hudson counties’ residents.


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Projections of County Population by Race

  • Essex County will continue to have the highest proportion of African Americans (41% by 2018).

  • Approximately one-half (49.8%) of the state’s black population will be residing in just fourcounties by 2018: Essex, Camden, Union and Middlesex.

  • Hunterdon, Morris, Ocean and Sussex counties will continue to have less than 5% blacks among their resident population.


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Projections of County Population by Race

  • The “other races” population is projected to grow faster than their white and black counterparts in every county.

  • Middlesex,Bergen andHudsoncounties are projected to account for nearly one-half of the state’s total “other races” population in 2018. Approximately one in every four (24%)Middlesex County residents will be persons of “other races” by 2018.


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Projections of County Population by Race

Proportion of “other races” Population in Selected Counties

  • However, the proportion of “other races” population will continue to remain low in southern rural counties and in the coastal “retirement” communities.


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Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin

  • Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have the largest number and highest proportion of Hispanic population in the state.

  • Middlesex, Bergen, Essex and Union counties are also projected to have large number of Hispanics.

  • Together, these six counties will account for about two-third (64.5%) of the state’s total Hispanics by 2018.


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Population Projections for New JerseyOverview

New Jersey Population by Age: 2008 and 2018

85+

85+

80-84

80-84

75-79

75-79

70-74

70-74

65-69

65-69

60-64

60-64

55-59

55-59

50-54

50-54

45-49

45-49

40-44

40-44

35-39

35-39

30-34

30-34

25-29

25-29

20-24

20-24

15-19

15-19

10-14

10-14

5-9

5-9

0-4

0-4

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

(Population in thousands)

2008

2018


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Projections of County Population by Age

  • Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion (26.2%) of elderly population in the state by 2018, followed by Ocean County (23.8%).

  • Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth counties will have more than 100,000 senior citizens (65 or older) each by 2018. Together, these four counties will account for 37.5% of the state’s total elderly population.

  • Hudson County (11.8%) will have the lowest proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by 2018.


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Projections of County Population by Sex

Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) in Selected Counties

  • Females will continue to outnumber males in almost every county except Cumberland and Hunterdon.

  • The sex ratio ranges from Cape May County’s 92.0 to Cumberland County’s 106.8 in the year 2018.


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Labor Force Projections for New JerseyOverview

  • New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow slower than its population from 2008 to 2018.

Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2028


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Labor Force Projections by County

  • Labor force is projected to increase in sixteen counties from 2008 to 2018, but will decline somewhat in Cape May, Essex, Hudson Passaic and Union.


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Labor Force Projections by County

  • Labor Force in Gloucester and Ocean counties is projected to grow faster than other counties during the 2008-2018 period.

  • Parallel to the population growth pattern, the Coastal region will continue to lead the state’s labor force growth while growth rate in the Northern regions is projected to below average.



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Labor Force Projections by Age

  • As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or older) is projected to reach 25.1% by 2018, from 19.1% in 2008.

  • By 2018, the “older worker’s” share of the county labor force will range from 18.8% in Hudson County to more than 30% in Cape May and Ocean counties.


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Labor Force Projections by Sex

  • Women’s share of the state’s labor force is projected to virtually unchanged at 47% from 2008 to 2018.

  • The projected proportion of females in the labor force ranged from 46% in Hunterdon County to 49% in Essex County as of 2018.


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County Labor Force Projections by Race

  • The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor force, is projected to increase substantially faster than their white counterpart in all counties from 2008 to 2018.

  • Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp. “other races”) are projected to increase their shares.


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County Labor Force Projections by Race

Proportion of “other races” Labor Force in Selected Counties

  • The proportion of “Other Races” labor force varies by county. It ranges from 1.5% in Salem County to 24.4% in Middlesex County by the year 2018.


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County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin

  • Hispanics will account for about 95% of the state’s labor force growth between 2008 and 2018.

  • Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties, except Hudson, from 2008 to 2018.


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County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin

  • The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force ranged from 3.6% in Gloucester County to 38.7% in Hudson County as of 2008. The proportion in these two counties will be 4.8% and 37.9%, respectively, in 2018.

  • About 69% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force were concentrated in six counties in 2008: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Middlesex, Essex and Union. These six counties will still have 65% of the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2018.


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THE END

Comments Welcomed

Contact:

Sen-Yuan Wu

@ 609-292-0077 (phone)

[email protected] (e-mail)

http://lwd.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/(URL)


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