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Discussion Paper Multifactor Productivity Contributions of U.S. Non-Manufacturing Industry Groups: 1987‑2005 by Michael J. Harper, Bhavani Khandrika, Randal Kinoshita and Steven Rosenthal U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 1, 2008.

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Discussion Paper

Multifactor Productivity Contributions of U.S. Non-Manufacturing Industry Groups: 1987‑2005

by Michael J. Harper, Bhavani Khandrika, Randal Kinoshita and Steven Rosenthal

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

May 1, 2008


A Brief History of Multifactor Productivity at BLS


1990s Attention to Weak Service Sector Data

  • Griliches AEA address

  • Boskin Commission

  • Corrado-Slifman [1999]

  • New data have become available in recent years


BEA – BLS Collaboration on “Production Accounts”

  • Input part of national accounts

  • FHPY: Fully integrated set of detailed data from which many types of industry and aggregate measures emerge

  • Current agenda includes expanding aggregate measures, comparing industry measures and filling in industry

    accounts


Sectoral Output


Complete Elements of The Nominal Production Account


  • Add the Time Element :

  • Distinguish “p”s and “q”s


Aggregates: Real Accounting

Definition:

AT = ST - NIT = Aggregate MFP

Results:

AT =Sj=1n(VYj/VST)Aj

(Domar [1961])

Sj=1n (VYj/VST) = 1 +

+Sj=1mSj=1nSj=1nVNi,j,k/VST


Negative MFP Trends

  • Counts of industries with (-) MFP trends:

  • 1987-2005 16 of 42

  • 2000-2005 13 of 42

  • 1977-1997 13 of 32 --- GH [2002]

  • Limited comparability – there is

    now more detail in services


Negative Productivity Trends

  • Effects on private business trend of raising (-) to zero:

  • 1987-2000 +0.27

  • 2000-2005 +0.19

  • 1977-1997 +0.3 --- GH [2002]

  • 1977-1992 +0.4 --- GH [1999]

  • 1977-1997 +0.4 --- Corrado -Slifman[1999] (labor productivity)


Negative MFP Trends

  • Counts of industries with (-) trends where BLS DIPS has coverage:

  • 1987-2005 2 of 11

  • 2000-2005 2 of 11

  • Counts of industries with (-) trends where BLS DIPS lacks coverage:

  • 1987-2005 14 of 31

  • 2000-2005 11 of 31


Measuring Non-Manufacturing Productivity Are we there yet?We may be closer


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