Slides by Alex Stojanovic

1. ECONOMICS ELEVENTHEDITION LIPSEY & CHRYSTAL Chapter 15 MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT Slides by Alex Stojanovic

2. Learning Outcomes • Macroeconomics looks at the economy as a whole, dealing with such aggregate phenomena as growth in total output and living standards, commonly called ‘economic growth’, business cycles, inflation, unemployment and the balance of payments • Macroeconomics focuses on the cycle in activity, whereas growth theory (covered in Chapter 26) focuses on determinants of the long-run trend in output • The GDP gap is the difference between actual real GDP and its potential or trend value • The total output of the economy as a whole is the sum of the value added by each firm or enterprise

3. Learning Outcomes • GDP can be measured as the sum of value added by all producers, as the sum of income claims generated in producing goods and services, or as the spending on all final goods and services produced • GDP measures the value of what is produced in this country, while GNI (or GNP) measures the income accruing to UK residents, including net income from overseas • GDP is a specific measure of output in the market economy, and is not a measure of welfare or happiness

4. UK potential GDP and the output gap, 1970-2006

5. Value added through stages of production

6. Gross Value Added at Current Basic Prices, by Sector, UK 2005 Sector £ million % GDP Agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fisheries 10,241 0.8 25,458 2.1 Mining and quarrying 12.2 Manufacturing 148,097 Electricity, gas, and water supply 24,953 2.0 Construction 65,923 5.4 Wholesale and retail trade 132,113 10.8 2.8 Hotels and restaurants 33,730 Transport and communications 81,059 6.6 266,485 21.8 Financial intermediation and real estate 42,096 4.4 Public administration and defence 54,935 4.5 Education 81,518 6.7 Health and social work 58.807 4.8 Other services Gross value added at current basic prices 1,086,859 Plus adjustment to current basic prices [taxes minus subsidies on products] 137,856 11.3 = GDP at market prices 1,224,715 100.0

7. The Circular Flow of Income, Output, and Expenditure Domestic households Imports Payments services for factor Saving goods Financial System for and Investment Abroad paid services Taxes Government Spending on current production income Exports After-tax Total Final spending Total income generated Domestic producers

8. The Circular Flow of Income, Output, and Expenditure Domestic households Imports Payments services for factor Saving goods Financial System for and Investment Abroad paid services Taxes Government Spending on current production income Exports After-tax Total Final spending Total income generated Domestic producers

9. The Circular Flow of Income, Output, and Expenditure • Individuals provide labour to firms and they buy the firms’ output. • National output or income can be measured from the expenditure side in terms of expenditure on the final output, or on the income side in terms of value added and factor incomes generated. • Saving, taxes and imports represent a leakage from the circular flow. • Investment, government consumption and exports represent injections into the circular flow. • For any equilibrium level of national activity (GDP) injections must equal leakages. • So saving plus taxes plus imports must equal investment plus government consumption plus exports.

10. Expenditure-based GDP and Its Components, UK, 2005 Expenditure Categories £ million % GDP Individual consumption Household final consumption 760,777 62.0 Final consumption of non-profit institutions serving households 30,525 2.5 Individual government final consumption 165,655 13.5 Total actual individual consumption 956,957 78.1 Collective government final consumption 101,875 8.3 Total final consumption 1,058,832 86.5 Gross capital formation 205,843 16.8 Gross fixed capital formation 3,721 0.3 Change in inventories - 337 0.0 Acquisition less disposals of valuables Total gross capital formation 209,187 17.1 Exports of goods and services 322,298 26.3 Less imports of goods and services -366,540 -29.9 External balance of goods and services [net exports] -44,242 -3.6 Statistical discrepancy 938 = Gross domestic product at market prices [money GDP] 1,224,715 100.0

11. Income-based GDP and Its Components, UK, 2005 Income type £ million % GDP Operating surplus, gross [profits] 312,026 25.5 Mixed incomes 76,112 6.2 Compensation of employees 684,618 55.9 Taxes on production and imports 162,267 13.2 less subsidies -9,391 -0.8 Statistical discrepancy -917 0.0 GDP at market prices 1,224,715 100.0 Employees’ compensation Receipts from rest of world 1,211 less payments to rest of world -1,137 Total 74 less taxes on production paid to rest of world Plus subsidies received from rest of world -4,243 Other subsidies on production 3,216 Property and entrepreneurial income Receipts from rest of world 185,826 less payments to rest of world -156,029 Total 29,797 Gross national income [GNI] at market prices 1,253,561

12. UK national income and output measures, 2005

13. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT What is Macroeconomics • Macroeconomics is about the economy as a whole. It studies aggregate phenomena, such as business cycles, living standards, inflation, unemployment, and the balance of payments. It also asks how governments can use their monetary and fiscal policy instruments to help stabilise the economy. Why do We Need Macroeconomics • Macroeconomics is useful because it enables us to study events that affect the economy as a whole without getting into too much detail about specific products and sectors.

14. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT The GDP gap • Potential GDP is the level of national output that would be produced if the economy were operating at its normal capacity, of full-employment level. • The GDP gap is the difference between actual GDP and its potential level. Measurement of National Output • Each firm’s contribution to total output is equal to its value added, which is the gross value of the firm’s output minus the value of all intermediate goods and services - that is, the outputs of other firms - that it uses. • Goods that count as part of the economy’s output are called final goods; all others are called intermediate goods. The sum of all the values added produced in an economy is called gross value added at basic prices. Basic prices are the prices received by producers net of taxes on products [plus subsidies].

15. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT The circular flow of income, output and spending • The determination of GDP and national income can be represented as a circular flow of income and spending. • Withdrawals of spending arise when income received is not spent on the domestic economy. • Injections of spending are those that are not the result of domestic income receipts, but rather come from sources other than domestic income recipients.

16. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT GDP, GNI, and GNP • Gross domestic product, [GDP] can be calculated in three different ways; [1] as the sum of all values added by all producers of both intermediate and final goods; [2] as the income claims generated by the total production of goods and services; and [3] as the expenditure needed to purchase all final goods and services produced during the period. • By standard accounting conventions these three aggregations define the same total, so long as we add taxes on products [minus subsidies] to the first two in order to measure GDP at market prices. • Market prices are the prices paid by consumers.

17. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT • From the expenditure side of the national accounts GDP = Ca + Ia + Ga + [Xa - Ima]. • Ca comprises private consumption expenditures. • Ia is investment in fixed capital [including residential construction], inventories, and valuables. • Gross investment can be split into replacement investment [necessary to keep the stock of capital intact] and net investment [net additions to the stock of capital]. • Ga is government consumption. [Xa -IMa] represents net exports, or exports minus imports; it will be negative if imports exceed exports.

18. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT • GDP income-based adds up all factor rewards in production. • The main income categories making up GDP are operating surpluses, mixed incomes, and compensation of employees. • UK GDP measures production that is located in the United kingdom, and UK gross national income [GNI] measures income accruing to UK residents. • The difference is due to net income from overseas. • GNI is the same thing as what used to be called gross national product [GNP].

19. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT • Real GDP is calculated to reflect changes in real volumes of output and real income. • Nominal GDP reflects changes in both prices and quantities. • Any change in nominal GDP [or GNI] can be split into a change in real GDP and a change due to prices. • Appropriate comparisons of nominal and real measures yield implicit deflators. • Personal income is income received by individuals before any allowance for personal taxes. • Personal disposable income is the amount actually available for individuals to spend or to save, that is, income minus taxes.

20. CHAPTER 15: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES AND MEASUREMENT Interpreting National Income and Output • GDP and related measures of national income and output must be interpreted with their limitations in mind. • GDP excludes production that takes place in the underground economy or that does not pass through markets. • Moreover, GDP does not measure everything that contributes to human welfare. • GDP is one of the best measures available of the total economic activity within a country. • It is particularly valuable when changes in GDP are used to indicate how economic activity has changed over time.