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Criteria for Crisis Overuse and Pollution of Fresh Water PROBLEM

Criteria for Crisis Overuse and Pollution of Fresh Water PROBLEM Extensive contamination of ground water Depletion of aquifers Subsidence of ground in some areas Overuse of fresh water resources Ex: Colorado River Ex: Jordan River. Criteria for Crisis

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Criteria for Crisis Overuse and Pollution of Fresh Water PROBLEM

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  1. Criteria for Crisis • Overuse and Pollution of Fresh Water • PROBLEM • Extensive contamination of ground water • Depletion of aquifers • Subsidence of ground in some areas • Overuse of fresh water resources • Ex: Colorado River • Ex: Jordan River

  2. Criteria for Crisis • Overuse and Pollution of Fresh Water • NO PROBLEM • Still plenty of fresh water in most areas, and new delivery methods work well • New purification techniques offer promise for the future • Desalination • Reclamation (“Toilet to Tap”)

  3. Criteria for Crisis • Deforestation • PROBLEM • Forested area has been shrinking for centuries, and rate of deforestation has increased dramatically in past 50 years • Less than 20% of original forest cover remains in many countries • Philippines, Madagascar, Scotland • Health of forests declining as well • US Forest Service estimated growth rate of yellow pines in SE United States declined 30-50% between 1975 and 1985, while fraction of dead trees increased from 9% to 15%

  4. 1945 1960 1974 1990 Bahia http://www.nybg.org/bsci/res/bahia/Defor.html

  5. Criteria for Crisis • Deforestation • NO PROBLEM • Globally, replanting more than makes up for deforestation • Managed properly, the cultivation of trees as an agricultural crop (silviculture) makes good use of a valuable renewable resource.

  6. Criteria for Crisis • Global Climate Change • PROBLEM • Lester Milbrath (SUNY Buffalo) • “Devastation from climate change will be exacerbated by other global biospheric effects: loss of the ozone layer, acid rain, poisonous red tides of algae, toxic pollution of soil, water, and air, and species extinction."

  7. data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

  8. Criteria for Crisis • Global Climate Change • PROBLEM • Effects • Rise in sea level (ca. 3-4 mm y-1) • Shifting of climate zones • Widespread drought in agricultural regions • Declining populations of marine plankton • Additional effects through food web • Increased summer deaths from heat

  9. Criteria for Crisis • Global Climate Change • NO PROBLEM • Rush Limbaugh • “Global warming is a scam invented by environmental scientists to increase their research funding” • Environmentalists are guilty of exaggerating the gravity of the situation • Present hypotheses as certainties and predictions as facts • Misrepresent evidence and compromise credibility • Current climate models aren’t complete • Only account roughly for role of ocean as a reservoir for heat (ATOC) • Climategate!

  10. Criteria for Crisis • Energy Availability • PROBLEM • “If it were not for the world's predominant reliance on fossil fuels for transportation and energy generation, the problems of global warming, acid rain and urban smog would be relatively minor” • Energy costs should be adjusted to reflect the environmental costs associated with their generation • Renewable energy resources need to be encouraged • 2005: Growing energy demand in the US will require the construction of 250 large coal or nuclear power plants (or their equivalent) by the year 2015 • Nuclear fission plants are unsafe and produce hazardous waste that requires long-term secure storage • Hydroelectric facilities produce no GHGs but are environmentally problematic

  11. Criteria for Crisis • Energy Availability • NO PROBLEM • New and alternative technologies offer promise for the future • Natural gas • Requires expansion of infrastructure • Requires new technology (hydrofracking) • Nuclear power (with proper regulation and security) • Solar power • Energy from the sea • Fuel cells

  12. Population Dynamics - History • Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) • English parson • Became concerned that unrestricted population growth would cause demand to exceed availability of resources • Predicted widespread poverty and famine • Global population < 1 billion • Malthusians - People who forecast disaster due to overpopulation • Many of Malthus’ predictions did not occur • Agricultural improvements (did not foresee) • Birth control (rejected on moral grounds)

  13. Population Dynamics - History • Demographic Transition • Theory developed to explain human population dynamics in response to economic development • Cohen – Four Stages • High birth & death rates (nearly equal but variable)  Growth rate low • Death rate falls and becomes less variable, birth rate still high  Growth rate rises, population increases. Mortality transition • Birth rate drops, death rate remains low or declines, growth rate slows, population increases. Fertility transition • Low birth & death rates (nearly equal, not variable), growth rate low or negative, population larger than before (1) • This process has occurred in many developed nations • United States, Canada, Japan, Western Europe

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