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Purpose

日韓中自動車産業の国際競争力 International Competitiveness of Japanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries 現代日本産業論(4) Hiromi SHIOJI Kyoto University. Purpose ▷ Analyses of statistics on international competitiveness of Japanese, Korean and Chinese automobile industry.

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Purpose

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  1. 日韓中自動車産業の国際競争力International Competitiveness ofJapanese, Korean and Chinese Automobile Industries現代日本産業論(4)Hiromi SHIOJIKyoto University

  2. Purpose ▷ AnalysesofstatisticsoninternationalcompetitivenessofJapanese,KoreanandChineseautomobileindustry. ▷ Wedonotmentionaboutactualconditionssuchasproductionsystem,marketingstrategiesandmanagementcapability. InternationalCompetitiveness ▷ Weincludenotonlydomesticproductionbutalsoexportandoverseasproduction. ▷ Weconsiderbothdimensionofcountryandeachfirm.

  3. JudgmentaldefinitiononNationalityofAutoMaker • Worldheadquarter is located at its own country. • Main operations of development and production are located atits own country. • It has its own brand vehicles and sell them by themselves. • Foreignautomaker isnotmajority share holder.

  4. Definition of “Korean auto maker” GM Korea GM韓国 (USA) Renault Samsung三星 (France) SsangYong 双龍 (India) Tata Commercial タタ (India) Hyundai/Kia 現代/起亜 Daewoo Bus 大宇Bus Hyundai/Kia Subsidiaries in China, USA, India, Turkey, Russia, Czech, Slovakia (Oversea) Global Production by Korean “Maker Base” [MB] 5.45 million in 2009 Domestic Production in Korea “Production Country Base” [PCB] 3.51 million in 2009

  5. Definition of “Chinese auto Maker” Shanghai VW 上海VW (German) Beijing Hyundai北京現代 (Korea) TFTM 天津一汽豊田(Japan) Shanghai GM 上海GM (USA) Chery奇瑞, Geely吉利 BYD比亜迪, FAW一汽 SAIC上海, Dongfeng東風 Less than 10 thousands Negligible (Oversea) Global Production by Chinese “Maker Base” [MB] 7.91 million in 2009 Domestic Production in China “Production Country Base” [PCB] 13.29 million in 2009

  6. Definition of Production of a Country • PCB and MB • Production Country Base : PCB • ▷ How many vehicles are produced in a country. • ▷ We ignore who or what maker produces, domestic or foreign. • ▷ Each country’s Automobile Manufacturer Association such as KAMA or JAMA,usuallypublish this type of statistics as Domestic Production of its country. • ▷ 3.51 million vehicles in Korea in 2009.

  7. Definition of Production of a Country PCB and MB 2. Maker Base : MB ▷ How many vehicles are produced by makers of its country. ▷ We ignore where makers produces, home or oversea. ▷ Total production by its country’s makers in homeand oversea. ▷ 5.45 million vehicles by Korean makers in 2009.

  8. Definition of “Japanese auto Maker” Mitsubishi Fuso ふそう (German) UD Trucks 旧･日ディ (France) Toyotaトヨタ, Nissan日産 Honda本田, Mazdaマツダ Mitsubishi三菱, Subaru富士 Daihatsuダイハツ, Hino日野 Isuzuいすゞ, Suzuki鈴木 At around 40 countries Max : 11.86 million in 2007 (only oversea) “Maker Base” [MB] 19.0 million in 2009 “Production Country Base” [PCB] 7.93 million in 2009

  9. Numerical Index of global competitiveness of a country ▷ We use the numbers of production, sales, export and import as numerical index. ▷ Wegive top priority on global production by “Maker Base [MB].” ▷ However, in the case of China, there might be bias due to the tremendously huge domestic market. China could have large global production with small export and oversea production.

  10. Production Country Base

  11. Production 生産台数

  12. Why MBincreaseor decrease comparing with PCB? Maker Base B : Domestic production by foreigner R and B R : Oversea production Increasing countries R > B 6 countries including Japan and Korea Decreasing countries R < B All but 6 countries, including BRICs Production Country Base

  13. Maker Base in comparison with Production Country Base in UK Red : UK maker Black : non UK

  14. Export Ratio : Export ÷ Production

  15. Trade Specialization Index＝(Export－Import)÷(Ex＋Im) 貿易特化係数 (台数ベース)

  16. Chinais －0.57 in terms of monetary amounts. 中国は金額ベースでは－0.57

  17. Difference between Japan/Korea and China • Japan/Korea • ▷ Global competitiveness are strong including export and oversea production. • 2. China • ▷ ThebiggestcountryintermsofPCB • ▷ However Chinesedeeplydependondomestic • market. • ▷ 40％ ofcarmarketisoccupiedbyforeignerdue • to weaktechnologydevelopmentcapability. • ▷ Exportandoverseaproductionarestillsmall.

  18. Diffusion ratio of Automobile 1000人当り保有台数

  19. Sales in USA

  20. Market Share in USA in 2010

  21. Penetration into developed countries such as USA by Chinese Makers ▷ Theyhadattempted to enter US market around 2004. ▷ But they gave up because of quality and safety issue etc. ▷ At present Chinese makers take a diversification strategy of export market which resembles that Korean makers took in 1990s.

  22. SalesandMarketShareinBRICsbyMaker

  23. SalesandMarketShareinBRICsbyCountry

  24. GlobalSales byMaker in2009

  25. Production 生産台数

  26. Conclusion 1.JapaneseandKoreanautomobileindustrieshave strongglobalcompetitiveness.Chinesehasnot yet. 2.Characteristicsofglobalcompetitivenessbuiltby JapaneseandKorean ▷ Lowimportratioinhomemarket ▷ Andhighmarketsharebydomesticmakers ▷ Thenumberofitssalesanduseinoperationis asbigasEuropeanmajorcountries. ▷ Largeexportandthenkeepitsscaleofeconomy indomesticproduction ▷ SecuresalesandproductioninUSAandBRICs

  27. Conclusion 3. Chinaisthebiggestautomobilenationinterms of“ProductionCountryBase.” ▷ Chinesedeeplydependondomesticmarket. ▷ Inaddition40％ ofcarmarketisoccupiedby foreignerduetoweaktechnologydevelopment capability. ▷ Exportandoverseaproductionarestillsmall. 4. Therearesomekindof“Compartmentalization” amongJ/K/Cmakersintheareasexcepting eastAsian.

  28. Conclusion Question1：WhendidJapaneseautoindustrybegin todeclinecomparingwithKorean? ▷ Japanesehasnotyetbeguntodecline.Itstill continuestogrow. ▷ Howeveritsgrowthratehasbeenlowerthan Korean since2000. ▷ Consideringcomprehensively,Koreanhasnotyet toppedJapanese. Question2：WhatwasthereasonJapandeclined? ▷ Japanesehasnotyetbeguntodecline. Question3：WillKoreanautoindustryalsodeclinein near futureduetothecatching-upbyChinese? ▷ Itisimpossibletopredict.Howeveratthistime thereisnosignandsymptomatall.

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