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Seminar in Conference Center Vltava, Rez, CR. System Analysis of the Power in 21 Century P. Alekseev (RRC “Kurchatov Institute”). March, 4, 2009. С ontents.

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System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Seminar in Conference Center Vltava, Rez, CR

System Analysisof the Power in 21 CenturyP.Alekseev(RRC “Kurchatov Institute”)

March, 4, 2009


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Сontents

1.Nuclear Power – Real Energy alternative in XXI century.2.Multi-component Innovative Nuclear System (INS) with Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle (CNFC).3.Strategy of development of nuclear power in Russia.4.Basic problems of large-scale Nuclear Powerfuel cycle development.5.Use of thermonuclear neutrons in nuclear power of fission.Conclusion.


1 nuclear power real energy alternative in xxi century

1. Nuclear Power – Real Energy Alternative in XXI Century.


Structure of consumption primary energy resources 2005

Energy resource distribution.

Industrial &Household

Transportation

Electricity and Heat

(1830

Mtoe)

(4500

mtoe

)

(3800mtoe)

3700 мtoe

2400 мtoe

2200 мtoe

1100 мtoe

690 мtoe

300 мtoe

Biomass& waste

Coal

Gas

Renewable

Nuclear

Oil

Structure of consumption primary energy resources(2005)


Growth of global consumption of energy in 21 century rincipal causes

Growth of global consumption of energy in 21 century. Рrincipal causes.

  • Growth of the population in the world.

    By modern estimations the population of the Earth to the middle of this century will increase approximately in 1,5 times (up to a level 10 billion person).

    Data about change of a population in the different countries and regions of the world <http: // www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/>.

  • Technological rapproachement of the developed and developing countries.

    If there will be an alignment of specific consumption of energy in the developed and developing countries, on what the tendency of last years demand for power resources to 2050 can increase three times in comparison with a modern level specifies.

    Data about consumption and manufacture of primary energy sources (oil, gas, coal, electric power, full consumption of energy) in the different countries of the world since 1965 (<http: // www.bp.com/>, <http: // www.iea.org/>, <http: // www.eia.doe.gov/>).


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Distribution of energyconsumption in the world

People distribution versus energy consumption level

Alignment of energy consumption

Primary energy recourses need

Main problem –

alignment of energy

consumption


The reasons for development of np

The reasons for development of NP.

  • Rate of growth of consumption of organic fuel essentially surpasses speed of updating of its resource base. Therefore, it is quite probable, that to the middle of a current century it will be impossible to provide demand for energy due to traditional technologies of use of fossilresources of organic fuel.

  • Use of organic fossil fuel is carried out mainly by its burning that leads to huge quantityof annual harmful emissions in an atmosphere. Development of such negative large-scale ecological phenomena is connected with power on organic fuel, as «acidulation» deposits and "hotbed effect".


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Generally Hubert oil peak (maximum of production on given territory, including whole world) denotes that about one half of resources were already exhausted.


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

IEA, Global Energy Outlook, 2003. Resources and consumption of oil and gas (contemporary estimation and increased resources, in 2 times)

rate of commissioning

of new resources or technologies is not acceptable for liberalized economy

It can be expected that already in 10 years from now it will be necessary to consider NE as the necessary stabilizing factor of sustainable development of the whole power sector.


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Oil recovery

(Go 453 bil. t) ( Go 800 bil. t)

Млн. тонн

Млн. тонн

152 billion tons have been already extracted

from 164 billion tons of proven resources

Gas recovery

(Go 310 trill. cub. m) (Go 800 trill. cub. m)

Млрд. м3

Млрд. м3

By now: 86 trill. m3extracted.Proven reserves=180 trill. cub. m.


Primary energy demand

Primary energy demand


World primary energy production

World primary energy production


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Energy resources availability depending on their extraction cost

Gas

U-238

Coal

Oil

Fuel recourses, EJ

Integral primary

Energy consumption

In the 21 century

(medium scenarios)

U-235

extraction cost, USD/GJ

“?” What it is easier – to change economic way,or to create NP system adequate to principles of sustainable development,providing access to remote resources of poor quality – creation of NP system capable effectively to use uranium - 238 and thorium in the closed fuel cycle?

14


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Data on change of gross national product of the different countries since 1980

(http://www.imf.org , http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview ).


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Power safety of the modern world

  • Today all world has faced with serious power challenges.

  • Among them:

  • Exhaustion of power resources at the extremely non-uniform distribution;

  • Prompt growth of consumption of energy and accordingly, the increased power loading on the nature;

  • Significant growth of cost of all power resources, including uranium.

  • The concept of global steady development and restriction of influences of power on climatic changes becomes more and more dominating in the world.

2050/2007

Oil 0.9 times

Gas1.1 times

Coal 4 times

Biomass3 times

Hydro2 times

Renewable 9 times

NE3times


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Oil 0.9 times

Gas1.1 times

Coal 4 times

Biomass3 times

Hydro2 times

Renewable 9 times

NE3times


Rates of growth of world gross national product

Rates of growth of world gross national product


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Evolution of sights at developmentNE

2008-2010 (forecast)

NP 2000GWto2050year

2005

NP 1000GWto 2050year

2000

NPis not necessary

38 mil. ton Unat

12.5 mil. ton Unat

3.6mil. ton Unat

NP is very important for the world

Such a scale demands the international cooperation, international plants of the fuel cycle

Control extension opportunities

NP almost in all countries

It is not important of the world power

It is practically impossible to supervise proliferation

NP in a small number of countries

It is not important for the world power

It is difficult to supervise proliferation

Nonproliferation


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Scenarios and ranges of projected installed nuclear capacity


Open fuel cycle np

Consumption of natural uranium in XXI century for different scripts, millions tons

35

30

25

20

Red Book, 15 million tons (2005)

15

10

5

0

The forecast of 2000

The forecast of 2005

В2- 2000 GW

360GW

1000GW

Open fuel cycle NP

Frequency of YM building

В2 –The "average" scriptIPCC (2000 )


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

  • Problems of modern NP

  • Modern NP cannot be considered as basis of sustainable development for the following reasons:

  • Inefficient use of fuel (the effective resource is less, than at oil and gas);

  • Degradation of neutron potential (absence of breeding of nuclear fuel);

  • Accumulation of waste of proportionally made energy (there comes that moment when the tariff will not suffice for service of waste);

  • Limitation of scales, spheres and regions of use;

  • Increase of threat of uncontrollable use of nuclear materials.


2 multi component innovative nuclear system ins with closed nuclear fuel cycle cnfc

2. Multi-component Innovative Nuclear System (INS) with Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle (CNFC)


A p aleksandrov

A.P.Aleksandrov(А.П.Александров):

«The future large scale NP should be capable (in sense of nuclear fuel) to sustainable development...with feeding in fuel cycle from the outside only not scarce U-238 ».

« Nuclear power and its role in technical progress » - the General address read at opening of VII World power congress, 1968.

«Будущая крупная атомная энергетика должна быть способной (в смысле ядерного топлива) к саморазвитию...

с подачей в топливный цикл извне только недефицитного U–238».

«Ядерная энергетика и ее роль в техническом прогрессе» - Генеральный адрес, зачитанный на открытии VII Мирового энергетического конгресса, 1968 г.


Difference of neutron balance for reactor and ins

Difference of neutron balance for Reactor and INS

  • The potential of neutron balance in a reactor at fissioning of uranium-235 and 233, plutonium 239, 241 is defined by size (--α.

  • The potential of neutron balance in system AE at use of all uranium-238 or thorium-232 is defined by size (--α-.

    Surplus of neutrons in a reactor allows to spend them for simplification of the decision of problems of convenience of operation, safety and economic efficiency.

    At the decision of a problem of reproduction of nuclear fuel the problem of realisation of the necessary neutron balance in system strongly becomes complicated.


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Surplus of neutrons at full "burning" various nuclides

The balance of neutrons allows to solve problemsof supply of fuel and transmutation in structure of nuclear power


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

User requirements

Basic principals

Guides, rules

  • INS:

  • NFC enterprises

  • Thermal reactors

  • Fast reactors

  • Burner reactors

Fission products,

Useful radio nuclides,

Energy

U-235

U-238

Th-232

Non nuclear recourses


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Scenario: 1500GW in 2050; 5000GW in 2100

Closed fuel cycle with recycling of uranium

Increased burn up in LWR-M – 60 GWd/t

Cosumption of natural uranium up to 2100

30 million t

Consumption of natural uranium 650000 t/year and separation work 800 MSWU in 2100 (In 10 times more in comparison with 2007 year)

Capacity of fuel reprocessing :

2050г:-20000 tSF/year

2100г.-40000 tSF/year


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Scenario: 1500GW in 2050; 5000GW in 2100

FBR-S: BR=1.05

Increased burn up in LWR-M – 60 GWd/t

Cosumption of natural uranium up to 2100

17 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t

Maximum of consumption of natural uranium in 2100г at level 40000 t/year. (In 7 times more in comparison with 2007г)

Volume of fuel reprocessing:

2050г:-20000 tSF/year

2100г.-60000 tSF/year


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Scenario: 1500GW in 2050; 5000GW in 2100

BN-1800: BR=1.2

Burn up LWR-M – 60 GWd/t

Consumption of natural uranium up to 2100

15.5 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t

Volume of processing of fuel:

2050г:-20000 tSF/year

2100г.-60000 tSF/year


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Scenario: 1500GW in 2050; 5000GW in 2100

FBR-S: BR=1.6

Raised burning out LWR-M – 60 GWd/t

Consumption of natural uranium up to 2100

4.25 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t

Volume of processing of fuel:

2050г:-40000 tSF/year

2100г.-90000 tSF/year


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Basic Fuel Cycle Parameters

for Various Scenarios (5000 GWe by 2100)

Maximum SWU, t/y

Natural U demand, million tons

800000

35

700000

600000

30

500000

400000

25

300000

20

200000

100000

15

0

CFC

(BR=1.25)

CFC

(BR=1.6)

OFC

CFC (burner)

10

5

0

OFC

CFC (burner)

CFC

(BR=1.25)

CFC

(BR=1.6)

Maximum natural U consumption, million t/y

0.7

Maximum SNF reprocessing, t/y

0.6

0.5

0.4

140000

0.3

120000

0.2

100000

0.1

80000

FR

0

CFC

(burner)

CFC

(BR=1.25)

CFC

(BR=1.6)

60000

TR

OFC

40000

20000

Current status:

Natural uranium consumption0.07 million t/y

SWU60 000 t/y

SNF reprocessing6 000 t/y

0

CFC

(BR=1.6)

OFC

CFC

(burner)

CFC

(BR=1.25


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Multi-component InnovativeNuclear System with Closed Fuel Cycle for all Actinides

Mining

Enrichment

U

Enriched U

Depleted U

Fuel

Fuel

Neutron

Pu

fabrication

fabrication

Source

Thermal

Fast

Molten-salt

Pu, U

Pu

reactors

reactors

reactor-burner

Pu, MA, Th

I-129, Tc-99

Aqueous

Non-aqueous

Separation

reprocessing

reprocessing

process

Pu

FP

1

TRU

Intermediate

storage

Final

disposal

Example of INS (Russia)


Reactors tasks

Reactors tasks

  • thermal power reactors - wide field of application, minimization of the plutonium equilibrium quantities in the INS (BR~0.8-0.9);

  • fast power reactors - provision of neutrons balance in the INS (BR~1.3-1.5);

  • molten-salt reactors-burner - minimization of the minor actinides quantity in the INS.


The international centers of a nuclear fuel cycle

NPP

Leasing of reactors

MOX fuel

MOX fuel fabrication

FR

Storage of SNF (FR)

Depleted uranium

Radwaste isolation

SNF reprocessing

SNF (LWR)

Storage of SNF (LWR)

SNF (LWR)

SNF (LWR)

Uranium fuel

Uranium fuel fabrication

Uranium enrichment

Storage of depleted uranium

Natural uranium

2025

2015

The international centers of a nuclear fuel cycle


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Production and trans-regional flows of fresh and irradiated nuclear fuel by 2050

t/year, N=2000 GW, “traditional” model


Production and trans regional flows of fresh and spent nuclear fuel by 2100 t y n 5000 gw

Production and Trans-Regional Flows of Fresh and Spent Nuclear Fuel by 2100, t/y, N5000 GW


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

  • Role innovative NS in global power

  • The innovative nuclear system provides the scale manufacture of energy possessing long-term resource base and weak dependence on region of extraction of natural uranium.

  • The innovative nuclear system will be based on the closed fuel cycle with reactors on fast neutrons as the cores breeders offuel and the sources of the electric power using an isotope of natural uranium - uranium-238 (thorium-232).

  • Conceptual basis of a choice of a base variant of structure of innovative nuclear system, nuclear fuel cycle and the nuclear industrial complex, providing performance of priority tasks with the least technical risk


3 strategy of development of nuclear power in russia

3. Strategy of development of nuclear power in Russia


Boundary conditions of np development in russia

Boundary conditions of NP development in Russia:

Creation of integral system (corporation – Sredmash XXI century) - « from cradle to grave»

International projects (INPRO, Generation 4, GNEP, international NFC centers), new opportunities for use of global experience and large scales of involved resources

Globalization of the markets of energy and finance: economic risks; political risks

The end of great geological discovery epoch - rise in price of uranium and all other resources

Complication and increase in scales of the systems demanding the qualified highly paid staff (demographic restrictions)

42


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

General Company Information

JSCAtomenergopromwas established in2007according to Russian Federation Presidential Decree № 556 of 27.04.2007 aimed at consolidating the civil sector of nuclear industry into an integrated full-cycle company of an international scale and at increasing its efficiencyandat enhancing its competiveness.

The charter was approved by Russian Federation Government Resolution №432 of 06.07.2007

The State Corporation Rosatom owns 100% shares of JSC Atomenergoprom(Federal law N 317-FLof 01.12.2007)

Shares of 89 enterprises of Russian nuclar industry will be contributed into equity of JSCAtomenergoprom(incl. 31 JSC, 55 FSUE, 3 FSEI)

The staff totals approximately 188,000 employees.

Government Support:Federal Target Program “Developmentof Nuclear Power and Industry Complex of Russia in 2007-2010 and until 2015» envisions financing totaling1,471.4 bln RUR.


Atomenergoprom is the system forming player in russian nuclear industry

Atomenergoprom is the system-forming player in Russian nuclear industry

  • 100% owned by the State Nuclear Power Corporation Rosatom

- Unites 89 civil nuclear enterprises of Russia and their affiliates

ROSATOM

ATOM ENER GOPROM

NWC

SCIENCE

NRS

Design and Engeneering of NPPs in RF

Power generation

Mining

Conversion

Enrichment

Fabrication

Power Machine Engeneering

Nuclear construction abroad

ROS ENERGO ATOM

ARMZ

TENEX

TVEL

ATOM ENERGO MASH

AEP(Moscow)AEP(St.P) AEP (NN)

ATOM STROY EXPORT


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

  • Mission

Atomenergoprom missionis to provide safe and effective economic development, higher standard of living and preservation of the environment.

Atomenergoprom is focusing on development of a society where atomic energy is ecologically clean, safe and affordable. The company aims at being a responsible member of the world community, known and respected all over the world.

Core strategic principle– technological leadership in the global nuclear industry.

Company’s strategy is to advance to both unification and technologicalimprovement of the product anddiversification of sources of revenuesandthe geographic expansion.


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Technology Chain

Fuel fabrication

Research and development

Uranium mining

Conversion and enrichment

NPP construction

Manufacturing of gas centrifuge

Machine engineering

Generation

Spent nuclear fuel management


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Operating reactors worldwide

Toshiba/ Westinghouse

117

AREVA

95

3rdworldwide by quantity

Atomenergoprom

69

GE-Hitachi

64

AECL

29

MHI

18

KHNP

8

units

Toshiba/ Westinghouse

108

AREVA

101

GE-Hitachi

56

Atomenergoprom

4thworldwide by installed capacity

49

AECL

18

MHI

15

KHNP

8

GW

Source: Atomenergoprom


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Novovoro-nezh-2 3

Tver 1

Seversk 1

Leningrad-2 3

General Allocation Plan: Comissioning of NPPs by 2020

Base scenario of NPP units construction according to the General Allocation. +32.3 GW of commissioned units.

Central - 4

+ 5.8 GW

Nizhniy Novgorod - 4

Expanded scenario of NPP units construction according to the General Allocation. Units are commissioned +5.8 GW relative to base scenario.

Pevek Floating NPP

Central - 3

Novovoro-nezh-2 4

ЦЕНТР - 3

Installed capacity of NPPs in Russia in 2020: base scenario – 53.2 GW,expanded scenario – 59 GW

Primorskaya 1

Primorskaya 2

Kola

2-1

Kola

2-2

Kola

2-3

Kola

2-4

Tver 4

South Urals 1

South Urals 2

Central 2

Central 1

+ 32.3 GW

Beloyarsk

BN-800

South Urals 3

Severodvinsk Floating NPP

Leningrad-2 2

Seversk 2

Novovoro-nezh-22

Nizhniy Novgorod 2

South Urals 4

Nizhniy Novgorod 1

Kalinin 4

Rostov 3

Leningrad-2 4

Rostov 2

Nizhniy Novgorod 3

Leningrad-2 1

Kursk 5

Rostov 4

Novovoro-nezh-2 1

Tver 2

Tver 3

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

World Nuclear Fuel Cycle Company’s Position

*Kazatomprom has only production of uranium dioxide powder (25%) and fuel pellets (9%)


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Estimation of power resources of Russia

U-238 - 86,7%

Coal - 8,7%

U-235 - 0,4%

Oil - 0,8%

Gas - 3,4%

(Source of data: data of Federal Agency of the Russian Federation on use of bowels – Rosnedra)


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

EnergyBalance for Russia

Oil, Gas, Coal

547 mil. toe

Russia

1176 mil. toe

World

Al , steel, chemical fertilizersat all

210 mil. toe

Total exports of energy(65%)


Reference points of growth of manufacture of electric power in russia

Reference points of growth of manufacture of electric power in Russia

Consumption of electric power,

current state, IEA, kWh/y per person

Specific GNP for different scenarios

$/year per person

USA-2006

USA-2006

2050

Russia

2030

2006

USA

Canada

Russia

Sweden

Japan

France

Min

scenarios

Norway

Max

scenarios

52


Initial conditions for strategy of nuclear power development in russia

Initial conditions forStrategy of Nuclear Power Development in Russia

Draft of Program of Socioeconomic Development of Russia to 2020

Draft of Strategy of Energy Development in Russia to 2030

Federal Target Program (FTP) “Development of the Nuclear Energy Industry”

54


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

Electricity production in Russia, Bln. kWh

NP – non electric

Sector,

250 Mtoe

Boundary of Strategy

Total electricity

Extrapolation « The General course … ».

Nuclear

electricity

NP share in electricity 80%.

45-50%

25-30%

55


System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

  • In strategy NPit is allocated three time horizon of the analysis:

  • Short-term (2009-2015).

  • Intermediate term (2016-2030).

    • Long-term (2031-2050.)


  • System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Short-term stage(2009-2015)

    • Escalating of power capacities for creation of investment base of development (with achievement of share NPin the general balance of manufacture of the electric power of the country not less than 25 % by 2030),

    • Research of needs and ways of development of regional nuclear power on the basis of the NPP with reactors of small and average capacity,

    • Expansion of the program of use of nuclear energy sources for expansion of commodity markets besides an electricity (central heating, a heat supply, processing of coal, manufacture of hydrogen, desalination sea water),

    • Maintenance of growth of export of nuclear technologies at a level commensurable with use of these technologies inside of the country,

    • Creation of base elements of a new technological platform large-scale INS.


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Intermediate-term (2016-2030) andlong-term (2031-2050) stages

    • Intermediate term stage should be subordinated to tasks of maintenance by fuel long term purposes. The basic manufactures of a nuclear fuel cycle, both initial, and finishing stages, and also the basic perspective energy sources long term strategy, requiring these manufactures should be incorporated.

    • Long-term stage should be formed on the basis of:

      • Steady balance of all energy sources and kinds of fuel;

  • Introductions NP in various spheres of manufacture and consumption of energy (motor fuel, heat supply, transport power and so forth);

  • Maintenance with fuel (breeding, development of a thorium cycle);

  • Constructions and operation NFC (the form of processing of fuel streams of closed NFC, the management with RF and so forth).


  • System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Conceptual basis of a choice of a base variant of strategy structure of nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle and the nuclear industrial complex, providing performance of priority tasks with the least technical risk


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    The nuclear power plants of Russia

    OFPP-150 GW(e);HPP- 44 GW(e); NPP-23GW(e)


    Electricity production structure for different regions of russia 2007 and 2030

    Electricity production structure for different regions of Russia 2007 and 2030

    fossilhydro NP

    61


    Priority areas for long term scientific and technical policies of the nuclear industry in rf

    Priority areas for long-term scientific and technical policies of the nuclear industryin RF

    Nuclear capacity increase by upgrading the available VVER technology.

    Introduction in system of nuclear power of the closed fuel cycle and fast reactors with the expanded breeding of fuel.

    Introduction of nuclear capacities in hydrogen production, energy-intensive industry branches and residential sector.

    62


    Priority tasks of russia s np development

    Priority tasks of Russia’s NP development

    • Assuring electricity generation by NPPs - 25–30% by 2030 and (34-38) %by 2050 of the total electricity production

    • Development of non-electric component of nuclear energy application after 2030, in order to support artificial motor fuel and hydrogen production of about 30% of the current demand by 2050.

    • Establishment of the closed nuclear fuel cycle based on fast breeder reactors, which would solve the fuel issue in principle for virtually unlimited time.

    • Creation of radioactive waste management system, which would assure reliable waste isolation, as well as of industrial technologies for nuclear facilities’ decommissioning.

    • Successful solution of specific tasks in the framework of selected priority areas of Russia’s nuclear energy development would assure a stable and competitive position of domestic technologies on the global market (20% of the world nuclear market).

    63


    Different scenarios of np development in russia

    Different scenarios of NP development in Russia

    140 t of natural U/GW year

    50 t of natural U/GW year

    Installed capacity, GW e

    VVER-440

    Vver-1000

    RBMK

    BN-800

    HTGR

    VVER-S

    BN-S

    Open fuel cycle

    NP for electricity, heat and hydrogen production,closed fuel cycle

    Closed fuel cycle

    64


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Integral consumption of natural U, thousand t

    VVER open

    Fuel cycle

    VVER-S &

    BN-S

    VVER-S, BN-S &

    HTGR

    65


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Capacity of SNF reprocessing plants,

    Tones per year

    RT-4

    RT-3

    RT-2

    Maiak

    66


    2010 2030

    Different phases of NP development in Russia,

    2010 – 2030, GWe

    Стратегические этапы развития АЭ, ГВт2010-2030

    2012 – VVER-M, 60GWd/t

    2018 – BN-small line (4-6 GW)

    2020 – VVER-S, nat.U – 130 t/GWy

    2027 – BR-S, excess Pu 270kg/GWy

    BR-S

    line of small BNs

    VVER-S

    BN-800

    VVER-2006M

    VVER-2006

    VVER-1000

    RBMK

    VVER-440


    Different phases of np development in russia including external markets 2030 2050 gwe

    Different phases of NP development in Russia, including external markets, 2030 – 2050,GWe

    2030 - HTGR for industrial heat

    and hydrogen

    Production

    HTGR

    BR-S

    VVER-S


    Looking beyond 2050 for russia np cwe

    Looking beyond 2050 for Russia NP, CWe

    2050 – VVER-S, MOX

    2060 – BR-S, Th in blankets

    2065 – HTGR, Th-U233 NFC

    HTGR (Th-U)

    BR-S (U-Pu-Th)

    HTGR-U

    BR-S (U-Pu)

    VVER-S (MOX)


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Installed NPP power capacity, GWe

    120

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

    4

    0

    2

    6

    8

    10

    Time of delay of enterprises commissioning, years

    Influence of risks on realization of Strategy

    2030

    2020

    2020 year

    2030 year

    70


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Increase in capital investments at delays with commissioning of enterprises, relative units

    3.5

    3

    2.5

    2

    1.5

    1

    0.5

    0

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Time of delay of enterprises commissioning, years

    Influence of risks on realization of Strategy

    71


    Fuel cycle development

    Fuel cycle development

    Natural U,

    thousand tone/year

    Separation work,

    Mln SWU/year

    Export

    Export

    Russia

    Russia

    Capacity of SNF reprocessing plants,

    Tones per year

    Integrated consumption of natural uranium for Basic NP development scenario till 2050 - 500 thousand tones

    72


    Some parameters of nfc

    Some parameters of NFC

    2025 year –SNF reprocessing plant(RT-2),1500 tones SNF/year

    2100 year - reprocessing capacity 14000 tones SNF/year

    Maximal capacity of extraction of natural uranium20 thousand tones/year (2060 -2080)

    Maximal capacity of SWU 25 Mln. SWU/year (2060-2080 )

    External fuel cycle time to 2030 year-3 year

    Consumption of natural uranium for Basic NP development scenario till 2100 - 1500 thousand tones

    73


    Risk factors it is required till 2030

    Risk factors(It is required till 2030)

    • To increase extraction of natural uranium of6-7 times

    • To increase manufacture of reactors of 5-6 times

    • To increase capacity on processing SNF of 10-30 times

    • To develop VVERwith the specific charge of natural uranium 135t/GW*year

    • To develop FRwith abundant production of fuel 270 kg/ GW*year

    • To develop technology of processing SNFwith time of an external cycle 3 years


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    4. Basic Problems

    of Large-Scale Nuclear Power

    Fuel Cycle Development

    75


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Problem questions of development NP fuel cycle


    Change of the prices for natural uranium within the framework of long term contracts

    Change of the prices for natural uranium within the framework of long-term contracts

    forecast of the prices for natural uranium

    max

    history

    ref

    $/kg

    min

    Border of efficiency

    of use the MOX fuel

    77


    Dependence of electric power cost for npp and organic pp from cost of fuel

    Dependence of electric power cost for NPP and organic PP from cost of fuel

    2006 year

    2000 year

    electric power cost, cent/kWh

    electric power cost, cent/kWh

    Coal PP with

    Sequestration of CO2

    Gas PP

    Coal PP with

    Sequestration

    of CO2

    Europe

    USA

    Gas PP

    Coal PP

    Coal PP

    USA

    Europe

    NPP

    NPP

    USA, Europe

    World

    World

    Fuel cost: U - $/kg; gas - $/1000cm; coal - $/toe

    78


    Change of an economic situation

    Change of an economic situation

    In a new situation when the market “excepts " the cost price of the electric power at a level of 6-8 cents /kW hour, conditions for NP changed cardinally.

    In former years NP was "limited" by the price factor and the unique way of its competitiveness has been connected to minimization of specific capital expenses due to increase in individual capacity of the power unit, reduction in operational costs, increase in fuel burn up and NPPcapacity factor.

    Now there is an opportunity to optimize individual capacity of the NPP, depth of fuel burn up of and its power rating, to use modes of maneuvering by capacity, remaining in borders of competitiveness. All of these changes and expands a competitive field, and there are opportunities for more full adaptation to various requirements of the market.

    79


    Base physical principles of sustainable development large scale ins

    Base physical principles of sustainable development large-scale INS

    • The risk is proportional to capacity INS, instead of integrated manufacture of energy;

    • Neutron efficiency INSshould increase;

    • Minimization of time of a life dangerous radioactive nuclidesin INS;

    • Effective utilization radioactive nuclides, including use of all extracted fuel;

    • Minimization of the reserved energy.


    Face large scale ins

    Face large-scale INS

    • INS with safe and economically effective FR(BR= 1.3-1.5), TR(BR=0.8-0.9)and MSR-burner of MA;

    • The closed fuel cycle for INS with repeated recycling uranium, plutonium, thorium and MA in FR, TRand MSR-burner;

    • The optimum management with various fission products and МА (Np, Am, Cm);

    • Presence suitable to export TRand FR;

    • Granting for exported reactors of complex services in the field of a fuel cycle (delivery of fresh fuel and return SNF).


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    • INS sustainable development:

  • Process of increasing of neutron potential is associated with breeding– production of plutonium from uranium - 238 and uranium - 233 from thorium - 232.

  • Growth of neutron potential is connected not only to characteristics of reactors and their neutron spectrum, but also with characteristics of NE system as a whole: nuclides losses, external fuel cycle time, a share of neutron absorption outside of fuel.


  • System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    • The development of non-aqueous methods of reprocessing spent nuclear fuelfor:

      • shortening of external fuel cycle;

      • reduction of amount of waste.

    • This will lead to:

      • reduction in the amount of fuel in the nuclear energy system;

      • impacting positively on the resolution of problems:

        • non-proliferation;

        • ecological acceptability;

        • fuel utilization;

        • and reducing the share of fast reactors in the system.


    Ms reactors technologies of various purposes

    MS Reactors technologies of various purposes

    • Heat Transport Systems (Reactor to H-Plant)

    • Advanced High-Temperature Reactor (solid fuel)

    • Thorium breeder (liquid fuel)

    • Molten-salt fast-thermal reactor-burner for minimization of the minor actinides quantity in the NPS ( liquid fuel with MA)

    • Molten-salt cooled fast reactors-breeder (solid fuel)

    • Molten-salt fast reactors-breeder

      ( liquid fuel)

    MS Systems

    Molten-salt fast reactors (MSFR)


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Возможные применения расплавов солей

    Транспорт тепла

    • H2 Process temperature requirements

    • Sulfur based ~ 900ºC, Ca-Br ~ 760ºC, Cu-Cl ~ 600ºC

    • HTE – 750 -- 900ºC (about 25 % of total energy)

    • Nuclear assisted steam methane reforming ~ 800ºC

    Реактор

    IHX

    IHX

    Производство водорода

    -Темохимия

    -Электролиз

    Gas Handling Systems --H2 Transfer, O2 Recovery

    Gen IV High-Temp Reactor

    VHTR

    H2

    Контур передачи тепла

    HX

    Chemical, Electrical, Storage, Recovery, Purification, Supply


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Генерация IV

    Топливная

    соль

    Теплообменник

    Установка химической очистки

    Теплообменник

    Блок с расплавно-солевым реактором (MSR)


    Prior msr studies in russia

    Prior MSR studies in Russia

    • From 1975 RRC–KI was basic organization under which supervision a collaboration of specialized institutions was formed and functioned. The program was concentrated around the following issues:

    • Conceptual studies (Th-U breeder and converter converter, MS cooled HTR, MS for industrial heat supply, MS fusion blanket)

    • Molten salt properties (phase diagrams behavior, density, heat capacity, heat of fusion, viscosity, thermal conductivity and electrical conductivity). Particular emphasis has been placed for U/Th fuels);

    • Construction materials.The results of RRC-KI combined investigation of mechanical, corrosion and radiation properties various alloys of HN80MT (Hastelloy NM) type permitted us to suggest the Ti and Al–modified alloy as an optimum container material for the MSR);

    • Radiochemistry of fuel salts(radiation stability, processing)

    • Molten salt studies in loops (handling, corrosion, heat transfer, etc)


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Равновесный мониторинги электронное управлениередокс–потенциаломрасплавленных солей

    Этот метод мониторинга основан на электро-химическом преобразовании информации в гальванической ячейке с твердоэлектро-литной мембраной из Na+––Al2O3:

    NaMo Na+––Al2O3Mo [Na] (соль)

    1 – чувствительный элемент, 2 – навеска, 3 – изолятор, 4 – электролит, 5 – электрод сравнения, 6 – корпус чувствительного элемента, 7 – потенциальный вывод, 8 – гермоввод, 9 – запорные блоки, 10 – корпус, 11 – гермоввод.


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    МАРС –

    микротвэльный автономный расплавно солевой реактор


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    • The development of liquid fuel reactor-waste incinerators(burners of minor actinides) to close the nuclear fuel cycle for minor actinides, which will significantly ease the problems of:

      • disposal and minimization of the quantities of hazardous nuclides in the nuclear energy system;

      • non-proliferation;

      • ecological acceptability;

      • effective utilization of the neutron potential of nuclear fuel.


    Power shares

    Power shares


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    High Flux Molten Salt Reactor (HFMSR)

    Thermal Power– 2500 МВт,

    Core Height– 3м,

    Core Diameter– 3м,

    Fuel Rating– 118 МВт/м3,

    Rate of FP disposalfrom the salt– 1%/day

    *) HFMSR operation at 80% of nominal power


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    • Introducing thorium to the nuclear energy system for:

      • increasing the thermal reactor share (up to 80%) and

      • reducing the quantity of plutonium and minor actinides (by approximately a factor of ten per unit of power) in the nuclear energy system.

    • This will toughen up the requirements for neutron-efficient nuclide losses (uranium-233, plutonium-239 and 241, uranium-235) up to 0.1%;


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Pu

    Enrichment U

    Pu

    LWR-U

    FBR(Pu-Th)

    U-233

    Thermal Reactor (U3-Th) or

    (U3-U8)

    U-Th-Pu closed fuel cycle


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    5. Use of Thermonuclear(Fusion) Neutrons

    in Nuclear Power of Fission

    99


    Msr r d objectives

    MSR – R&D Objectives

    Molten salts are a high-temperature, low pressure coolants with multiple applications


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Термоядерные источники нейтронов (ТИН)

    В условиях дефицита делящихся нуклидов, особенно на этапе быстрого роста мощностей ядерной энергетики, термоядерные реакторы могут быть использованы как наиболее эффективные источники нейтронов для наработки делящихся нуклидов из сырьевых нуклидов (уран 238 и торий 232), энергетический ресурс которых может обеспечить устойчивое развитие.


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Потенциал наработки ядерного топлива


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Баланс нейтронов и энергии

    На 1 нейтрон 14 MeV

    U-238

    Th-232

    Захват Деление

    3.35 0.65

    Захват Деление

    1.73 0.14

    Энергия на 1 n (14 MeV)

    143 MeV

    Энергия на 1 n (14 MeV)

    42 MeV

    Выделяемая энергия для получения одного ядра делящегося изотопа

    25MeV

    43 MeV


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Сценарий развития ЯЭ РФ до 2100г. с ТР и БР

    Быстрые реакторы(БР) с BR=1.4

    Усовершенствованные тепловые реакторы (ТР) на уране и тории.

    Доля быстрых реакторов в системе к 2100 г - 43%

    Расход природного урана до 2100г. 1.4 млн.т

    Годовое потребление природного урана в 2100г. - 20000 т/год


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Сценарий развития ЯЭ РФ до 2100г. с ТР и ТИН

    ТИН вводятся в ЯЭ с 2040г.

    Усовершенствованные тепловые реакторы(ТР) на уране и тории.

    Доля ТИН в ЯЭ к 2100г. < 5 %

    Расход природного урана до 2100г. - 0.85 млн.т

    Годовое потребление природного урана в 2100г. - 0 т/год


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Сравнение сценариев


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    ТИН в системе инновационной ЯЭ

    • В бланкете с быстрым спектром нейтронов природное или обедненное урановое или ториевое топливо помещается в зоне, ближайшей к плазме, что обеспечивает максимальный выход плутония на одно деление (до 1 кг/МВт (тепл.)* год в урановом и 2 кг/МВт(тепл.)* год в ториевом бланкете).

    • Можно использовать и обогащенную начальную загрузку бланкета, повысив тем самым энерговыделение на один нейтрон термоядерной реакции. Это увеличивает мощность ТИН, но удельный выход делящегося изотопа падает

      до 0,5 кг/МВт(тепл.)*год для уранового и

      до 1 кг/МВт(тепл.)*год для ториевого топлива.

    • Расплавы фторидных солей в качестве теплоносителя и топливной композиции, содержащей торий-232 (уран-238), в бланкетах ТИН, обеспечат теплосъем, радиационную защиту и эффективное накопление ядерного горючего.


    Required innovations depending on the level of the world nuclear energy development by 2050

    Required innovations depending on the level of the world nuclear energy development (by 2050)


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Токамак

    Котел взрывного сгорания

    Пробкотрон

    Z-пинч

    Стелларатор

    Обжатие лазером


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Охлаждение модуля бланкета ИТЭР водой

    или расплавом фторидной соли

    * - параметры указаны при средних характеристиках режима

    ** - снижение потерь за счет увеличения проходного сечения


    Conclusion 1

    Conclusion(1)

    • Growth of scales of consumption of energy has led to situation when even essentially new ideas cannot quickly correct position - too much time and resources it is necessary to spend for input of necessary volumes of new power technology which could meet significally crisis of power supply (in a broad sense).

    • At creation INSto existing problems in management of neutron fields the problem of management by speeds of generation nuclidesand their streams between various elements of structure INS is added (problem nuclide logistics in INS).


    Conclusion 2

    Conclusion(2)

    • In order to reduce the managerial, market, financial, legal and technological risks of nuclear energy development, it would be necessary not only to create innovative reactors and nuclear fuel cycles as a backbone basis, but also to assure infrastructure-related conditions for nuclear power development in the fields of construction, machine-building, legislative basis, public acceptance and investment attractiveness.

    • At full closing of nuclear fuel cycle in

      mode of self-maintenance with fuel raw problem NPpotentially loses a subject of confrontation in struggle for world power resources.


    Conclusion 3

    Conclusion (3)

    Globalisation of Nuclear Power Development are:

    • More international cooperations

    • Progress in multilateral framework

    • Competition on short term issues

    • Cooperation on long-term ones (non-proliferation, safety, security)


    System analysis of the power in 21 century p alekseev rrc kurchatov institute

    Seminar in Conference Center Vltava, Rez, CR

    Thanks for attention!

    March, 4, 2009


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