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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services. Kevin Johnston. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision/Benefits Goals/Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. Aviation Services Team Composition.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan

for

Aviation Weather Services

Kevin Johnston

NWS S&T Committee

September 17, 2002


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Outline

  • Team Composition

  • Vision/Benefits

  • Goals/Targets

  • Key Information Gaps

  • Key Solutions

  • Outstanding R & D Needs

  • Summary


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Aviation ServicesTeam Composition

  • Kevin Johnston (NWS/OST)

  • Mark Andrews (NWS/OS)

  • Lynn Sherretz (OAR/FSL)

  • Gary Ellrod (NESDIS)

  • Aviation Weather Center

  • Regional Aviation Meteorologists


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Aviation ServicesVision / Benefits

Vision

Operational Utility of All Aviation Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy

  • Reduce National Airspace System Weather Delays by 10%

  • Expected Savings of $600M/Year (Air Transport Assoc. Study)

  • Reduce Alternate Fuel Cost up to 50% ($200M Savings)

  • Reduce General Aviation Weather-Related Fatalities by 25%


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On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Aviation ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12


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Aviation ServicesKey Information Gaps

  • More Accurate Icing Forecasts

  • More Accurate Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasts

  • More Accurate Identification of Low Clouds/Visibility

  • More Precise Timing/ Location of Convection

  • Knowledge of Model Guidance Uncertainty


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Aviation ServicesKey S&T Solutions


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Aviation ServicesKey S&T Solutions (Continued)


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10

02

05

06

07

08

04

09

11

12

03

Aviation Weather Key S&T Solutions

* MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR

Observations

MM Radar

Dual Pol

Low Cloud Imagery

Advanced Ensembles

8km WRF

DA/Models

Deployment

*UPS Fog

Conditional Climo

*First Guess TAF

Hourly MOS

OTE

Forecast Techniques

*ACT in GFE Prob TSTMS/WFO Grids/TSTM Height

DTE

*SFO Low Cloud

*NYC Low Cloud

*PIT Low Cloud

R&D

*NCWF

FAA IFTA

FAA FIP

Verification

RTVS/TAF

CWSU Products

Training

*Low Cloud/Vsby

*Probability


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Aviation ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs

  • Develop Numerical and Subjective Techniques to Improve 0 - 6 Hour Convection Forecasts

  • Develop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range Visibility

  • Develop Techniques for Forecasting the Time of Formation and Burn-off of IFR Conditions to Within 1Hour

  • Improve Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing Potential

  • Improve Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts

  • Develop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of Forecasts

  • Develop Tools to Prepare Grids or Objects for IFPS to Generate Aviation Weather Elements and Products


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Aviation ServicesSummary

Vision

Operational Utility of Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy

  • R&D Needs

  • Develop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range Visibility

  • Improve Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing Potential

  • Develop Techniques to Improve 0 - 6 Hour Convection Forecasts

  • Improve Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts

  • Develop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of Forecasts

Improving U.S. Aviation Safety and Reducing Air Traffic Delays

  • Improve Model Resolution and Accuracy

  • New and Improved Forecast Techniques

  • New Observations

  • Focused Training

Increasing Performance

  • Probabilistic Techniques

  • Dual Polarization/MM Radar

  • Higher Resolution Obs.

2002

2007

2012

2020


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