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GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010. B iofuel E valuation for T anzanian T echnological E fficiency using R enewables - I ntegrated S trategies

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Gtz beaf nairobi 2 3 05 2010

GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010

Biofuel Evaluation for Tanzanian Technological Efficiency using Renewables - Integrated Strategies

Strategies to use Biofuel Value Chain Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa to respond to Global Change - Enhancing low-productivity Farming in Tanzania and linking to SMEs

Sokoine University of Agriculture

(SUA)

Wuppertal Institute for Climate,

Environment and Energy

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural

Landscape Research e.V.

Environmental Economics and

World Trade

The International Food Policy

Research Institute

Association for Strengthening

Agricultural Research in Africa

World Agroforestry Centre


Structure

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Structure

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities & Outputs

4 Case study region

5 Time frame

6 Preliminary results

7 Challenges


1 objective

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

1. Objective

To identify the potential for linking low-productivity farming to small and medium enterprises (SME) to enhance livelihoods through biofuel value chains in the scope of increased global energy demand.

To provide farmers, regional organizations and local authorities in Tanzania with feasible strategies to benefit from biomass production potential and mitigate food insecurity.


2 problem

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

2. Problem

Most significant global drivers: Climate Change (Gbetibouo et al. 2006) and global energy demand (Von Braun 2007).

-> High forecast uncertainty

Biofuels potential to provide communities in sSA with multiple energy services (e.g, heating, cooking, transport)

-> Benefit to rural populations (United Nations 2007).

Risk of increasing food prices and reduced supply (Von Braun 2007)

-> Displacement of vulnerable people from productive land, negative environmental impacts (Thornton et al. 2006).


2 problem1

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

2. Problem

Potential intervention points to assist rural poor (Leuenberger & Wohlgemuth 2006)

Pathways on biofuel value chains from (1) biomass resources to (2) supply systems, (3) conversion (4) processed end products

->Maximizing profit through producing feedstock for external markets,

->Optimal mix of energy carriers and supply for domestic and industrial users at rural level

-> Condition: sustainability with focus on food security & ecosystem health


2 problem2

Biomass ressources

(e.g. oil bearing plants)

Type, Condition, Requirements

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Positive

Impacts

2. Problem

Supply systems

(e.g. harvesting, collection, etc.)

Conversion

(e.g. pressing, fermentation, estherfication)

End products

(e.g. Transportation fuels, electricity, etc.)

Negative

Impacts


3 activities of partners

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Modeling

Statistics

Appraisal Expertise

3. Activities of partners

global

global energy and agricultural modeling

The International Food Policy Research Institute

Biomass consumption patterns

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Coordination & value chain analysis

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V.

Environmental Economics and World Trade

Village modeling & certification appraisal

Association for Strengthening

Agricultural Research in Africa

Contact & workshop

Contact & workshop

World Agroforestry Centre

local


3 activity ifpri

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

3. Activity IFPRI

Top-down global modeling approaches to downscale implications for energy demand and to excess supply or gaps in supplies.

-> The scenario solving by the agricultural sector model IMPACT

-> Country-level food outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa related to the global food situation in medium- and long-term analysis (Von Braun 2007).


3 activity wuppertal institute

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

3. Activity Wuppertal Institute

Biomass consumption patterns with focus on competing biomass uses (food, material, energy) and options for cascading systems.

-> Description of patterns of consumption and forecasts linking outputs from global scenarios (output 1) and biomass value chains (output 3).

-> Assessment of scenario implications (such as production incentives, key drivers for biomass consumption pattern, export opporunities, expected benetifs, gross indication for climate balances (CO2).


3 activity iuw wi zalf icraf asareca

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

3. Activity IUW, WI, ZALF, ICRAF, ASARECA

Bottom-up biomass value chains through feasibility studies on potential pathways of linking low-productivity farming to SME on local, decentralized biomass concepts.

-> Microeconomic calculations (costs, benefits, risks, marginal analysis) underline technological and infrastructural feasibility

-> Methods on participatory stakeholder analysis and involvements by means of adequate appraisal methods

-> The transferability of the case study region-results to other regions in Sub-Saharan Africa will be assessed.


3 activity zalf

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

3. Activity ZALF

Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIA) towards trade offs between socio-economic and environmental indicators related to production and side conditions for biomass value chains.

-> Assessing the situation of food security

->Each sustainability dimension (social, environmental, economic) must be represented by sound and consistent indicators.


3 activity zalf all

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

3. Activity ZALF, all

An Information System of feasible value chain concepts as advice packages for capacity building and dissemination strategies

->Access to gained knowledge as people-centered approach

-> IS has to account for key actors along the “value chain”

->For the Tanzanian case and main findings on thetransferability test to other representative Sub-Saharan regions.


Gtz beaf nairobi 2 3 05 2010

Regional Case Study Analysis

Regional & local energy Scenarios

Global energy and agricultural modeling

Top-Down

Output 1

Biomass consumption patterns

Output 2

Biomass Value Chain Analysis

Output 3

Stakeholder Analysis & Appraisal Methods

Sustainability Impact Assessment

Output 4

Trade offs and Implications for food security

Information System

Output 5

Bottom-Up

Capacity Building & Dissemination


4 overview scoping study

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

4. Overview: Scoping study


4 overview case study

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

4. Overview: Case Study


5 time frame

Master Themes, internal Reports

IFPRI Modelling with IMPACT

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Modeling,

Data Evaluation

Household surveys (village model)

5. Time frame

Workshop 3

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Year

2010

2011

2009

Workshop 1: Kick-Off Meeting, Identification Information Gaps, Strategy

Workshop 2: First Results, Model Validation

Workshop 3: Model Results Discussion, Information System Adjustment


6 preliminary results

  • Biofuel Value Chains

  • Wood / charcoal-> baseline

  • Jatropha -> energy use at community level (e.g. MFP)

  • Palm Oil -> out grower systems

  • Ongoing activities

  • Modelling (IMPACT & CGE village model)

  • Village Survey in Kinole for multiple use (CGE, SIA etc.)

  • 5 master theses as satellites studies

  • Indicator development - Sustainability Impact Assessment

  • Participative stakeholder workshops

  • Academic level (session convener “Sustainable biofuel production in developing countries”), special issue

  • Homepage as interaction platform among actors (Information System)

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

6. Preliminary Results


6 impact model

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Building from past scenario exercises

6. IMPACT Model

The descriptive ‘storylines’ (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), UNEP Global Environmental Outllook (GEO) provide a starting point for thinking about how socio-economic and environmental drivers could evolve differently for a region like Tanzania

UNEP GEO-4 assessment to define the direction of some key drivers of change in order to evaluate the dynamics within food and fuel markets in Tanzania


Three scenarios for tanzania s future

Three Scenarios for Tanzania’s Future

Look at a baseline of “Business-as-Usual” in addition to two alternative ones:

“Security First” – which is a “Balkanization”-type of scenario that has much less trade (much higher levels of trade protection), slow diffusion of knowledge, less innovation, and slower economic growth. Most of the key socio-economic indicators point in the “negative” direction under this scenario

“Sustainability First” – which is where policies promoting environmental protection, more efficient energy usage and technologies, and more emphasis on yield and productivity growth to avoid agricultural area expansion

6. IMPACT Model

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges


Population growth in tanzania under scenarios

Population Growth in Tanzania under scenarios

6. IMPACT Model

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

IFs model outputs

Page 20


Per capita income growth in tanzania under scenarios

Per capita income growth in Tanzania under scenarios

6. IMPACT Model

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

IFs model outputs

Page 21


Girls secondary schooling rates in tanzania under scenarios

6. IMPACT Model

Girls secondary schooling rates in Tanzania under scenarios

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

IMPACT model inputs

Page 22


Child malnutrition in tanzania under scenarios

6. IMPACT Model

Child malnutrition in Tanzania under scenarios

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Page 23

IMPACT model outputs


Concluding thoughts

6. IMPACT Model

Concluding Thoughts

Currently undertaking some key improvements:

Refining scenario definitions to incorporate biofuels and bioenergy (such as biomass use at the household level)

Account for effects of gradual diet change in the high-income countries that have an effect on market in SS Africa (such as changes in meat demand)

Look more closely at the dimensions of urbanization in Tanzania and the implications for diet and energy usage

Currently revising the global biofuels modeling framework to better link with country-level markets in Tanzania

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges


6 results jatropha wood chain kinole added value screening

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

  • Wood chain - baseline

  • Integration: Agroforestry Good Practices / woodlots

  • Efficiency (charcoal production and stoves) and trade off analysis of best alternatives

  • Jatropha - scenario

  • Controversial discussion

  • Jatropha adds value under good site conditions / inputs

  • -> Kilosa SUMAGRO Ltd. Farm (1,2 kg seeds / tree)

  • Added value depends on individual set of conditions

  • -> test case in Kinole

  • Jatropha as support plant for high value crops (e.g. vanilla) -> major condition with market access

  • Checklist to discuss potentials, requirements, fulfillments

  • -> focus groups

6. Results: Jatropha / Wood Chain Kinole (Added value screening)


6 results jatropha

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

Kilosa SUMAGRO Ltd. Farm

(1,2 kg seeds / tree)

6. Results: Jatropha

Kinole

Pepper (left)

Vanilla (right)


6 results workshops

  • Participative development of an integrated approach

  • to analyze potentials and requirements for implementing site-specific value-chain concepts for biofuels

  • To conceptually embed the findings into policy framework (e.g. biofuel guidelines)

  • to develop tools for discussion support at community level

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

6. Results: Workshops

Household surveys (village model)

Workshop 3

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Year

2010

2011

2009


6 results workshop survey

  • First Better-iS workshop

  • Discussion among farmers, policy makers at district level / ministry, researchers, NGOs and SME-holder

  • Sustainability impact assessment: Indicator development

  • Preparation for first up-scaling example (Jatropha seedlings)

  • Promising process with focus on the village Kinole

  • >> Survey is being conducted (until end of June)

  • First village workshop

  • Harmonizing of workshop outcomes to local community level

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

6. Results: Workshop & Survey


6 results workshops1

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

6. Results: Workshops


6 results workshops2

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

6. Results: Workshops


6 participative decision support tool

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

  • Development of a biofuel checklist to dicuss requirements versus degrees of fulfillment, e.g

  • - access to capital

  • human capital

  • infrastructure

6. Participative Decision Support Tool

Assessment method (1-3 from low to high)

Requirements to implement an intervention

Degrees of fulfillment of implemented intervention


6 participative decision support tool1

60 questions and related indicators

6. Participative Decision Support Tool


Gtz beaf nairobi 2 3 05 2010

6. CGE Modelling at village level

Village survey provides data for Social Accounting matrix

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges


Gtz beaf nairobi 2 3 05 2010

6. Homepage Better-iS

http://www.better-is.com/

From homepage towards Information System with decision support tools

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges


6 summary

1 Objective

2 Problem

3 Activities

4 Case Study

5 Time Frame

6 Results

7 Challenges

6. Summary

Homepage / Decision support products in an Information System for involved actors

Farmers, local / national decision makers

Policy recommendations on implementation strategies

Value chain-specific requirement tools

Research reports on scientific outcomes IFSA conference

Peer-reviewed scientific publications (Special Issue)

Training of PhD & master students in Africa and Germany

Network among SME-holder, Research & Policy

Integration of different components to establish an Information System that is accessible for all actors

To take results to the ground for actual implementation

To actually link top-down outcomes with bottom-up findings

To embed developed approaches into biofuel guidelines


Gtz beaf nairobi 2 3 05 2010

Thank you for your attention!

http://www.better-is.com/


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