UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

1. “Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“ UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITYInstitute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

2. Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, Conflicts and Migration Fabrice Renaud Associate Director UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany

3. Global Environmental Change and Human Security Economic Community Global Environmental Change Food Political Health Personal Sustainable Human Development Environmental Freedom from Want Freedom from Fear Adapted from concepts of UNDP, 1991 and Kofi Annan

4. Environmental change, climate change and conflicts (1)Brown et al (2007): Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs 83:1141-54 (2)Nyong: Climate related conflicts in West Africa. ECSP Report, Issue No 12. • Climate change is increasingly discussed in relation to international conflicts and security in general(1) • For example, in the West-African Sahel(2): • Droughts linked to climate variability increase the vulnerability of communities and conflicts • Migration of pastoralists from the North towards southern regions occupied by sedentary farmers generated some conflicts. But reverse trends also exists whereby farmers from the South move towards the North because of land degradation processes. • However, straightforward causality effects are generally rare as many other factors come into play: economic, social, political and cultural (re. the discussions surrounding the Darfur conflict or “water wars”)

5. Current & potential effects of climate change in Latin America Magrin et al. (2007): Fourth IPCC Report • Climatic variability and extreme events are severely affecting the Latin America region over recent years (including Amazon drought in 2005) • During the last decades important changes in precipitation and increases in temperature have been observed • Land-use changes have intensified the use of natural resources and exacerbated many of the processes of land degradation: • Three quarters of the drylands are affected by degradation processes • Decrease in natural land cover through climatic and man-made impacts • Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America: • Replacement of tropical forest by savannas is expected in eastern Amazonia • Replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid vegetation in parts of north-east Brazil • The expected increases in sea-level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas

6. Likelihood that future summer average temperatures exceed highest summer temperatures observed on record Battisti et Naylor (2009): Historical warnings of future food insecurtiy with unprecedented historical heat. Science 323: 240-244 2040-2060 2080-2100

7. Human security, vulnerability and climate change (1)Barnett & Adger (2007): Climate change, human security and violent conflicts. Political Geography 36:639-655 • Vulnerability of people and communities with respect to climate change depends on(1): • Their dependence with respect to ecosystem services • The impact of climate change on these ecosystems • Adaptation capacities of the communities • Capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability: • Societies adapt constantly • However, what are their limits when considering climate change? • Migration is a type of adaptation

8. Environmental migration: estimates • Some estimates on environmental migration: • 24 millions (UNHCR 2002) • 2010: 50 millions (Myers 2005) • 2050: 200 millions most often quoted (Stern 2006, IOM 2008) • After 2050: up to 700 millions (Christian Aid 2007) • Hundreds of millions (Stern, 2009) leading to conflicts

9. UNHCR and environmental migration Guterres (2008): Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR perspective • In terms of international governance there is a distinction between international and cross border displacements: • Existing legal frameworks already consider internal displacements • However some cross-border displacements are not covered by any legal framework • Displacement scenarios considered: • Hydro-meteorological disasters; • Zones designated by governments as being too high-risk; • Environmental degradation and slow onset disasters; • “Sinking” small island states; and • Armed conflicts triggered by a decrease in essential resources.

10. Proposed categories • Environmental Emergency Migrants (as opposed to Environmental Refugees): • People who flee the worst of an environmental impact on a permanent or temporary basis. They have to take refuge to save their lives • Environmentally Forced Migrants: • People who “have to leave” to avoid the worst of environmental degradation. The urgency of flight is less • Environmentally Motivated Migrants: • People who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre-empt the worst

11. Preliminary definition framework Loss of Ecosystem Services and Slow Onset Hazards ENVIRONMENTAL EVENT Rapid Onset Hazards (e.g. Floods, Earthquakes) Accelerated degradation of ecosystems e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion Gradual degradation of ecosystems e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity, sea-level rise Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe Action of fleeing to save one’s life Livelihoods Impacted ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCY MIGRANT Person migrates away from impacted area Environmental reason for migration decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts, sea-level rise Environmental reason for migration decision not dominant NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANT Rapid and effective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas Slow and ineffective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area Migrant does not return to impacted area Migrant does not return to impacted area ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area but required significant time ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT No alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT Impacted area no longer exists Slow onset hazards & Loss of ecosystem services Rapid onset hazards Renaud et al. (2009): A Decision Framework for Environmentally Induced Migration. Submitted to International Migration Journal

12. Loss of Ecosystem Services and Slow Onset Hazards Accelerated degradation of ecosystems e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion Gradual degradation of ecosystems e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity, sea-level rise Livelihoods Impacted Person migrates away from impacted area Environmental reason for migration decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts, sea-level rise Environmental reason for migration decision not dominant NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANT Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area but required significant time No alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT Impacted area no longer exists

13. Figure f. Maps indicating number of people affected (and potentially displaced) under a 1 metre sea-level rise scenario based on current socio-economic and environmental conditions in Viet Nam (Source: Carew-Reid 2007, pp27-28 (modified))

14. 1 m Sea level rise Amazon Delta Source: CRESIS - http://www.cresis.ku.edu/research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html

15. The five-pronged approach: a call for simultaneous actions • Science: • Better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms (including other push/pull factors) • Who migrates, where and when? • For creeping processes, identification of crisis tipping points (thresholds) • Quantification of migration responses to the impact of environmental degradation • Rapid onset vs. “creeping” processes • Scenarios and policies • Link migration to adaptation strategies & to environmental and climate change • Long term effects of resettlements • Cooperation between all stakeholders Source: Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, Warner (2007): Intersction No 5, UNU-EHS Bogardi, Warner (2008): Here comes the flood. Nature 3:9-11

16. The five-pronged approach(cont’d) • Awareness: • Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social, economic, environmental dimensions • Rectify the “Northern” bias • Concept needs to be included in outcome of Copenhagen summit, UNCCD, IPCC • Legislation: • Establish and implement a framework that recognises environmental migrants to protect adequately individuals displaced by environmental degradation processes • Humanitarian aid: • Empower the United Nations system and humanitarian organizations to provide aid to environmental migrants • Institutional: • Establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental migrants

17. Conclusions • Links between global environmental change, human security, migration and/or conflict can be real but: • They are not always systematic • There is a need for more research in order to establish the multiple causality factors • Governance plays a crucial role: • Limit causes of conflicts which are often multiple • Allow space for traditional conflict resolution mechanisms • Facilitate adaptation to environmental change and climate change • This can only be achieved through a multi-stakeholder concerted approach (including in the Amazon basin)

18. Thank YouMerciObrigado UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10 D-53113 Bonn, Germany Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0200 Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299 E-Mail: renaud@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu