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Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality: Looking forward Jurgen Tack Anik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,…. Purple Conference 26/5/2010. Energy Dir. Biodiv 2010. WFD.

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Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality:Looking forwardJurgen TackAnik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,…

Purple Conference 26/5/2010


Energy Dir

Biodiv 2010

WFD

Floods Dir

Natura 2000

Groundwater Dir

EU white paper…

Nitrate Dir…

Climate

change

Biodiversity

Sustainable

watermanagement

MEA

Ecosystem

Serv.

agriculture

urbanisation



agriculture

urbanisation

Energy Dir

Biodiv 2010

WFD

Floods Dir

Natura 2000

Groundwater Dir

EU white paper…

Nitrate Dir…

Climate

change

Biodiversity

Sustainable

watermanagement

MEA

Ecosystem

Serv.



Environmentoutlook

Natureoutlook


Land use model Flanders

Subtitel

> Tekst


Scenario’s

Land use

Reference

Environmental

Quality (reference)

Land use

Segregation

Land use

Multifunctional

Socio-economics

Climate

Land use

Reference

Environmental

Quality (Europe)

Land use

Segregation

Land use

Multifunctional


Urbanisation distance to green areas for inhabitants

2005

ER 2030

Urbanisation:Distance to “green areas” for inhabitants

  • Accessibility of “green areas”: decline

  • Peri-urban areas: increase


ChapterAgriculture

Policy scenarios for agriculture & environment:- unchanged policy: Reference scenario shrinking land use by 5 % in 25 years growing productivity (tonnes/ha)- alternative policy: Europe scenario: - manure policy: 140 kg N/ha - manure processing at stable prices - lower nutrient content in animal feed - agriculture with environmental and nature objectives

EnvironmentOutlook 2030


Agriculture change in land use
Agriculture: change in land use

> Reference decrease of 5%

> Europa decrease of 3 %; Increase AEN


Agriculture with environment nature objectives

2005

ER 2030

Agriculture with environment & nature objectives

> Europe-2030: increase in fields with environment & nature objectives


Critical load nitrogen

2005

Europe 2030

Critical load (nitrogen)

> Decrease in areas overrunning the critical load

according to the vegetation


Conclusion
Conclusion

  • Urbanisation: increase

  • Agricultural areas: decrease

  • European goals demand larger areas for agricultural use

    (due to lower production capacity)

  • Stricter manure policy is needed to reach water targets

  • Critical load: Europe scenario necessary



Energy Dir

Biodiv 2010

WFD

Floods Dir

Natura 2000

Groundwater Dir

EU white paper…

Nitrate Dir…

Climate

change

Biodiversity

Sustainable

watermanagement

MEA

Ecosystem

Serv.

agriculture

urbanisation


Water quality

Manure advice,

buffer strips,

wintergreen cover

Costs

other sources

agriculture

companies

public waste water

treatment

manure decree

EnvironmentOutlook 2030



Water quality oxygen

Minimal oxygen concentration (mg O²/l)

≤ 2

> 2 en ≤ 4

> 4 en ≤ 6

> 6 en ≤ 8

≥ 8

Water quality: oxygen

R 2015

E 2015

E 2027

2006

  • good ecological quality : increase after 2027


Water quality restoration of fish populations
Water quality: restoration of fish populations

2006

R 2015

E 2015

E 2027

2005

Rheophylic Fish populations: sensitive to pollution

Suitability :

barrier

only migratio

low reproducttion

moderate reproduction

good reproduction

optimal reproduction

  • restoration reproduction capacity : after Europe 2027 scenario


Water quality suitability for fish
Water quality : suitability for fish

Rheophylic species sensitive for pollution

Vulnerable

Tolerant

E27 : jump forward

Sensitive species: maximum = 45% of potential habitat


Conclusions

  • Current and complementory measures will lower discharges into surface water.

  • Fysico-chemical water quality continues to increase, but phosphorous remains a major problem.

  • Phosphorous: important limiting factor for primary production and macrophyte growth

  • Biological quality increases, but in the most advanced scenario only between 45 and 60% of the rivers reaches a good water quality.

EnvironmentOutlook 2030



agriculture

urbanisation

Energy Dir

Biodiv 2010

WFD

Floods Dir

Natura 2000

Groundwater Dir

EU white paper…

Nitrate Dir…

Climate

change

Biodiversity

Sustainable

watermanagement

MEA

Ecosystem

Serv.


Climate change temperature
Climate change: temperature

Increase temperature: monthly average 2100

> Flanders 2100: +2,5 tot +9°C in summer


Climate change precipitation
Climate change: precipitation

Flanders 2100: 2 scenarios increase in winter precepitation

Flanders 2100: all scenarios decrease in summer precepitation



Land use changes
Land use changes

  • Valley: decrease agriculture use, less ncrease build up areas, more opportunities for nature


Climate change
Climate change

Consequences for marsh vegetations

  • Valley: Opportunities for nature, for climate adaptation, for Carbon stocks,…


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • Higher flood capacity will is needed

  • Higher risks of drought in summer

  • Risk of species loss increases

  • “resilient” ecosystems will be needed

  • Opportunities for marsh vegetation in flood areas

  • Opportunities for different ecosystem services in flood areas


Some conclusions of the future
Some conclusions of the future…

Beekforel

Yves Adams


Goals will

Not be reached

Goals will

Not be reached

Energy Dir

Biodiv 2010

WFD

Floods Dir

Natura 2000

Groundwater Dir

EU white paper…

Nitrate Dir…

Climate

change

Biodiversity

Sustainable

watermanagement

MEA

Ecosystem

Serv.

agriculture

urbanisation

AEN increase

needed

Ecosystems with

More resilience

needed

More buffer

Capacity

needed

Valley:

opportunities

for adaptation

New holistic

approach

Temperature:

increase

Decrease area

Increase AEN

Increase

peri urban area


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