ENVS 189—Intro. To Systems Thinking

1. ENVS 189—Intro. To Systems Thinking

2. Policy Insensitivity Cartoon “Solutions” to a problem may actually make the problem worse

3. Effective leverage points aren’t where you expect them to be

4. Delayed feedback cartoon There is a time delay between cause and effect. This prevents us from knowing how the immediate outcomes of our actions will effect us later.

5. Slow Systems Response Cartoon Systems respond slower (or faster) than we expect, which effects how we respond.

6. Lighted arrows cartoon Past experiences don’t always apply to solving future problems.

7. Elephant Sufi Cartoon The more that the parts of a problem come into focus, the more difficult it may be to identify what the whole problem is.

8. Definition of a System SYSTEM -- a collection of individual parts (people, policies, etc.) that work together as a whole.

9. Definition of ST • SYSTEMS THINKING • How we view and work with complex systems by looking for and understanding patterns of inter-relationships between the parts of the system.

10. No numbers and computers • Systems thinking has nothing to do with numbers or computers

11. Best Systems Thinkers • THE BEST SYSTEMS THINKERS ARE: • Intuitive (right brain dominant) people • People exposed to Zen and other Eastern philosophies • Mystery category

12. Fixes that Backfire • Fixes that Backfire • Why is it that, in complex systems, the more we try to solve the problem, the worse the existing problem can become or even new problems are created? • My examples: • Bacterial Outbreak at Mass. General Hospital • Wells in Africa • Your examples-??

13. The Policy Insensitivity Continuum • The Policy Insensitivity Continuum • WORST BEST • Existing problems Improvement • become worse and/or I is less than • new problems are anticipated • created

14. Leverage Points--1 • Systems don’t behave the way we intend them to because they are insensitive to traditional ways we try to alter their behavior. • There are many reasons for this. • The first two involve leverage points: places in the system where a small change in one thing can produce big changes in everything.

15. Leverage points--2 • There are a few leverage points that will solve the problem. But they are hard to find because they are not where you would expect them to be. • We look for them in the symptom of the problem. • But, instead they are found in the underlying causes of the problem.

16. Symptoms vs. Causes-1 • Systems Thinking Helps You Uncover The Leverage Points in a Complex System. • It helps you discover the deep, underlying causes of a problem, not just the outward superficial systems.

17. Symptoms vs. Causes-2 Symptoms: Shout-- display prominent results are short-term and compelling provide immediate gratification (political implications) demand “local” attention Underlying causes: Whisper--display subtle results are long- term and persistent provide delayed gratification cut across departmental or agency boundaries So why are we drawn to the symptoms, where there are no leverage points, rather than to its underlying behaviors, where there are leverage points?

18. Unintended Consequences • When we treat the symptoms rather than the causes, we get: • UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES • Examples: • Traffic on Shelburne Road • Ski Bindings

19. UC—Shelburne Rd--1 Shelburne Road in South Burlington becomes overly congested, so a decision is made to widen it. After the construction, the congestion is initially relieved. This is the short-term, quick fix solution that treats the problem symptom

20. UC—Shelburne Rd--2 Eventually, this low traffic flow makes the road attractive to new drivers who weren’t using the road before construction, so the congestion becomes worse than ever. This is the long-term unintended consequence

21. Ineffective policies-1 • Why Policies Don’t Give the Results You Want • The system gets in the way: the harder you push, the harder the system pushes back • We are drawn to the very symptom points where intervening will fail. • There are a few sensitive influence points that where you can exert leverage to solve the problem, but they are not where you are expecting them to be. • Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space.

22. Ineffective policies-2 Why Policies Don’t Give You the Results You Want (continued) • 5. The more that a problem comes into focus, the fuzzier it appears. • 6. Past experiences may not apply. • 7. Outcomes may first improve before they get worse, or first get worse before they improve. • 8. The system can change in slow and imperceptible ways.

23. Conclusions • Conclusions: • Complex systems are inherently uncontrollable • They cannot be understood sufficiently even while they are unfolding • So prediction and control of complex systems is very hard, if not impossible, to do

24. Benefits of ST--1 • Benefits of Learning Systems Thinking: • Systems Thinking will help you better understand how complex systems behave. • This will help you immensely in your own personal life, in your other courses, and how you see the world. • You already know everything you need to know factually…it’s just rearranging the information.

25. Benefits of ST--3 • “ If you don’t know where you’re going, • when you get there, • it may not be • where you wanna be.” • Casey Stengel • Former Manager • NY Yankees

26. 3 Aspects of Systems Thinking: • Enlarging the problem boundary • Visualizing in closed loops • Revealing Unintended Consequences

27. Holistic Thinkers Systems Thinkers global • Enlarging the Problem Boundary Space Most people Futurists local Future Now Time