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NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”. Link to Invisible Primary. In many respects the invisible primary is an extension of the nomination process on the front end

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link to invisible primary

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

Link to Invisible Primary
  • In many respects the invisible primary is an extension of the nomination process on the front end
  • Candidates must develop and maintain credibility, stature and legitimacy as serious presidential candidates long before the actual official process gets started

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frontloading and nomination process

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

Frontloading and Nomination Process
  • States created a competitive scramble to move primaries and caucuses forward in the election year in order to raise their profiles and maximize impact on the determination of the party nominees
  • National parties had to intervene in the process in 2008 to maintain the integrity of Iowa and New Hampshire as the first two states to hold official events
  • Delegates penalized-deducted(R) or stripped(D)—Florida and Michigan were two of the largest of a handful of “linejumpers”—Hillary petitioned against penalizing delegates because she got the most votes in Florida
  • Many even thought that official events would be forced into late 2007 as Iowa and New Hampshire vowed to keep their custom of being first

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iowa new hampshire

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

IOWA & NEW HAMPSHIRE
  • the nomination process officially begins in January with the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary
    • two very different states, in two different parts of the country determining delegates in two very different ways
    • gain or lose momentum with the early showings and therein lies the secret and importance of IA and NH
    • these relatively insignificant states in general election politics are crucial to capturing the nomination and in many people’s minds have a disproportionate amount of influence on the presidential election system
  • most candidates wont be around for a significant majority of the primary events

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NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

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party business

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

“Party Business”
  • Field of candidates in each party is narrowed to a single nominee
  • Much of the narrowing is done through natural attrition
    • Candidates lose momentum and eventually run out of money and other resources that are necessary for generating support and votes
  • Someone will eventually receive a mjority of the total delegates, amking them the nominee

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NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

CANDIDATE ANNOUNCEMENT AND ATTRITION The 2008 presidential election was an open seat election in that President Bush could not be reelected due to the two term limit found in the 22nd Amendment. Generally this means that the number of candidates seeking the office will be increased in that both parties have numerous candidates, where after the first term of a President, that President typically seeks reelection and doesn’t usually face opposition within the party for the nomination. 2008 was no different in that 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats ‘threw their hat into the ring” by officially announcing their candidacy for the nomination. As can be readily seen from the candidates entering and exiting dates, normal attrition takes place as candidate voluntarily drop out. This is the normal method of narrowing the field of candidates

REPUBLICANS in out DEMOCRATS in out

John McCain 2/07 nominee Barack Obama 2/07 nominee

Rudy Giuliani 2/07 1/30/08 Joe Biden 1/07 1/3/08

Duncan Hunter 1/07 1/19/08 Hillary Clinton 1/07 6/7/08

Mike Huckabee 1/07 3/4/08 Chris Dodd 1/07 1/3/08

Ron Paul 3/07 6/1/08 John Edwards 12/06 1/30/08

Mitt Romney 2/07 2/7/08 Mike Gravel 4/06 3/25/08

Fred Thompson 9/07 1/22/08 Dennis Kucinich 12/06 1/24/08

Jim Gilmore 4/07 7/14/07 Bill Richardson 5/07 1/9/08

Sam Brownback 1/07 10/19/07 Evan Bayh 12/06 2/16/06

Tom Tancredo 4/07 12/20/07 Tom Vilsack 11/06 2/23/07

Tommy Thompson 4/07 8/12/07

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critical resources

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

Critical Resources
  • Money, paid professional staffers, pollsters, phone banks, get out the vote resources, field managers, volunteer coordinators, fundraising, Internet and technology support, media managers, advertising and many others

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the party nominee

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

The Party Nominee
  • Whatever the rule, event, strategy, mechanic, etc the one and only objective is to determine the party’s best candidate
  • Product of the nomination process is the best candidate
  • Best navigates and survives the varied rules, calendars, procedures, finishing on top is the best candidate of the party and moves on to face the opposition survivor in the November general election

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how to get the party nominee

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

How to Get the Party Nominee
  • Complex, sophisticated, cummulative and somewhat confusing rules processes and mechanics that are different for each party and vary from state to state characterize the system
  • There are as many rules as there are states
  • These rules, processes and mechanics result from a combination of state law and party policies

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nomination currency

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

NOMINATION CURRENCY
  • all fifty states and US territories will hold either a primary or caucus between the months of January and June to determine delegates that eventually cast a vote at the party’s national convention during the summer
  • delegates are the currency in the nomination phase

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money is critical

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

MONEY IS CRITICAL
  • the primary objective of each campaign is to gain support and votes from week to week and state to state
  • a successful candidate must prove the ability to persevere from week to week and capture votes in totally different parts of the country with a diverse range of voters
  • campaigns send in as many resources (money, staff etc) as early as possible in as many states as they can
  • the more money, the more resources in more states = more delegates
  • the winning campaign must get a majority of the total delegate count of roughly 4000 Democrats or 2000 republicans
  • most campaigns don’t have resources—must pick crucial states to gain momentum---this hampers their ablility to mass delegate votes
  • the candidates with ample resources have the ability to pick up delegates every where----MONEY IS CRITICAL

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delegate selection

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

DELEGATE SELECTION
  • states either hold a primary or caucus to determine delegates---both Republicans and Democrats in Georgia determine delegates with a primary
  • each state has a delegate total determined by the national party linked to the previous presidential election results
  • the better a party does in the presidential election one year the more delegates they are rewarded in the next nomination cycle
  • In 2008, 4040 total Democratic delegates were selected to attend the convention in Denver, 103 were from GA---California will have more delegates than GA and Vermont will have less
  • In 2008, 2345 total Republican delegates were selected to attend the convention in Minneapolis,72 were from GA----larger states will have more delegates and smaller states will have fewer delegates

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primary fundamentals

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

PRIMARY FUNDAMENTALS
  • Party election---the states open up the election polls and average citizens go and vote
    • delegate totals are linked to the people that actually go to the polls and vote for a candidate
    • Democrats and Republicans have different rules as to delegate determination linked to primary vote
    • Democrats typically have a proportional system and Republicans have more winner take all contests

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fundamentals of the caucus

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

FUNDAMENTALS OF THE CAUCUS
  • Party meeting---participants in a caucus must attend a scheduled meeting of the party with the main agenda item being the selection of delegates to a convention to be held later
    • a series of conventions eventually determines delegates that will attend the national convention where the nominee is selected
    • this is a pyrimidal process
    • delegates are detemined by the actual number of people that physically show up in support of a candidate

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primary caucus combo the states have this discretion

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

PRIMARY/CAUCUS COMBOthe states have this discretion
  • In a few cases the flexibility of the states to create different rules allows for a combination of the two
  • Texas Democrats in 2008 had a confusing system where a percentage of the delegates were determined by a primary vote by day and the rest were determined by caucus participation at night
  • Remember that each party in each state determines its own rules

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party regulars

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

PARTY REGULARS
  • Party regulars (activists) are the fundamental participants in the nomination process
  • They are people that are immersed in the business of a political party---these are not you average Americans
  • Many are professional politicians or elected officeholders
  • Many have other links or connections to politics or work as staffers
  • They raise money, work in campaigns, write fundraising checks, develop vision and policy of the party, attend meetings, etc
  • They are also very instrumental in developing the rules, procedures and mechanics of the nomination process
  • They are constantly looking for better more efficient and effective ways of advocating party policy and candidates

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party conventions

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

PARTY CONVENTIONS
  • Eventually candidate resources and support manifest itself in the number of delegates that attend the national convention supporting a particular candidate (link to voters in a primary election and supporters at a party caucus)
  • Delegates to the convention are bound by party rules to their candidate based on the results of caucus and primary
  • Modern political history has always seen a winner determined and declared before the convention and the actual nomination of the President and Vice President is a formality and is usually done unanimously as opponents turn their delegates loose to support the winning candidate
    • this was the case even in 2008 with the close primary battle between Obama and Hillary
  • Convention where the noiminee hasn’t been decided and delegates are free to be solicited by others is called a “brokered convention”
    • delegate votes are bought and sold and deals are made to determine who becomes the nominee

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party convention sites

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

PARTY CONVENTION SITES
  • Convention site selection is a political decision
  • Typically the party is going to select a city/state that they feel is in play and will be critical to winning the general election
  • Conventions therefore are generally held in battleground states
  • 2008 found the Democrats in Denver and the Republicans in Minneapolis

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party conventions what they accomplish

NOMINATION PROCESS

NOMINATION PROCESS “each party getting their best candidate”

PARTY CONVENTIONSWhat They Accomplish?
  • Conventions lately have had more of a pep rally atmosphere where the party puts its best foot forward and really plays to the television cameras
  • many feel the importance and function of the party convention has outlived its usefulness---there are two important elements :
  • Two delegate tasks:
    • official nomination of Prsident and VP
    • development of party platform---official issue positions of party
  • Poll bump
    • the party and candidate typically get an 8-10 point bump in the polls following the convention
    • the party in power always holds there convention last and gets the final bump
    • most feel these bumps are smoothed out and the polls are more accurate around Labor Day

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