Do we know how to create jobs
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Do we know how to create jobs?. Evaluation lessons from a S ystematic R eview by Michael Grimm and Anna Luisa Paffhausen, University of Passau, Germany C ommi ssioned by KfW Entwicklungsbank Evaluation Unit.

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Do we know how to create jobs

Do we know how to create jobs?

Evaluation lessons from a Systematic Review by Michael Grimm and Anna Luisa Paffhausen, University of Passau, GermanyCommissioned by KfW Entwicklungsbank Evaluation Unit

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the Systematic Review are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency of the German Development Cooperation.


Systematic reviews

Systematic reviews

...a waytoovercometheproblemof limited externalvalidityof experimental (RCT) and quasi-experimental outcome/impactmeasurements.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the Systematic Review are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency of the German Development Cooperation.

OECD DAC EvalNet 12-13 February 2014, Paris

KfW presents itself / November 2013


Do we know how to create jobs

84 studies excluded

5 not obtained

15 studies ongoing

1,785 records excluded

(mostly because not related to our research question)

Search strategy and intervention categories

Identifi-cation

2,275 record identified through database searching

Screening

1,924 records screened after duplicates removed

20 additional records identified through other sources

Eligibility

139 studies assessed for eligibility

55 studies included

Incl. 27 RCT studies

93 impact estimates

Included

Not adding up to 55 because some studies cover more than one intervention type

Access to finance and insurance

  • 26 studies / 13 RCTs

Entrepreneurship training

  • 20 studies / 16 RCTs

Intervention types

Business development services

and targeted subsidies

  • 10 studies / 1 RCT

Improvements of businessenviron-ment: Incentives to formalise

  • 5 studies / 1 RCT

OECD DAC EvalNet 12-13 February 2014, Paris

KfW presents itself / November 2013


Key findings on employment

Key findings on employment

  • 26 studies, 40 Treatment effects: 13 positive, 2 negative, 25 insignificant

  • No large employmenteffects, particularly not in micro-enterprise.

  • More businesscreationthanhiringofnewworkers

  • Interventionsmostly do not havejobcreationasmajorobjective (but ratherincomestabilisiation, higherfamilyincome).

  • Employmenteffects larger ifowneris male.

Access to finance and insurance

  • 20 studies, 31 treatmenteffects: 9 positive, 1 negative, 21 insignificant

  • Successfultrainingdoes not necessarilyleadtoemploymentgeneration: itcanevenleadtoclosing down unsuccessfulenterprise.

  • Training shouldbe substantial (about 1 year, once a week) andspecific.

  • Tackling financeimpedimentsatthe same time seemstomakeemploymenteffectsmorelikely.

  • Entrepreneur-ship training

  • 10 studies, 7 positive ormixed, 1 negative (minimum wage), 1 insignificant

  • Targetedsubsidiesforhiring a workerorforinnovations/R&D cancontributetoemploymentgeneration

  • Subsidiesandservicesshouldbedemand (not supply) driven, tailor-made andfocussed.

  • Expensive interventions

  • Business develop-ment servicesand targetedsubsidies

  • 5 studies, employmenteffect after formalisation 4 positive, 1 insignificant

  • Onlyfew (larger) andnewfirmsformalise; formicroentrepreneursoftenformalityhasmoredisadvantagesthanadvantages.

  • Formalisation, whereitworked, hadonlymodestemploymenteffects.

  • Betterservicesthatfirmsgainaccesstowithformalisationofferincentivestogiveupinformalityandmightcontributetojobcreationaswell.

Businessenviron-ment: Incentives to formalise

OECD DAC EvalNet 12-13 February 2014, Paris

KfW presents itself / November 2013


Do we know how to create jobs

The method bias

  • Do quasi-experimental studiesover-estimateemploymenteffects due toun-eliminatedbiases?

  • ...orareemploymenteffectssmall in RCT-measurementsbecausethismethodisveryoftenappliedtorathersmallprogrammes in relativelypoorareas?

OECD DAC EvalNet 12-13 February 2014, Paris

KfW presents itself / November 2013


Do we know how to create jobs

Implications for development policy, evaluation and research

Policy

  • Itis a longwayfrompolicyinputstoemploymentimpacts: itseemseasiertoachieveeffects on managementpractices, salesorprofitsthanemploymenteffects.

  • A major push isneededtohaveemploymentimpact.

  • Manyoftheinterventionsincluded in thereviewfirstof all striveforincomestabilisationandpovertyreduction, and not foremploymentcreation.

  • Targetingseemstobekey.

  • Itseemstobeeasiertocreatenewbusinessesthantofosterthegrowthofexistingfirms.

Evaluation andresearch

  • Evidenceis still sketchy, particularlyfor Sub-SaharanAfricaandAsia.

  • Thereisalmost a complete lack ofevidence on long-term effectsandcost-effectiveness.

  • A dilemma: Fortheinclusioninto a systematicreview, studieshavetomeethighestmethodologicalqualitystandards. However, not all programmesaresuitedfor (quasi-)experimental evaluationdesigns

  • Howto deal withthedilemma:

  • Do not neglectthefindingsofothertypesofevaluations

  • ...untilresearchcomesupwithnewqualitystandardsthatcover a wider rangeofprogrammedesigns

OECD DAC EvalNet 12-13 February 2014, Paris

KfW presents itself / November 2013


Thank you

Thank you!

OECD DAC EvalNet 12-13 February 2014, Paris

KfW presents itself / November 2013


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