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Export Controls—What’s next?. Export Controls – What’s Next?. Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security. Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security. HPC EXPORT CONTROLS.

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Export controls what s next

Export Controls—What’s next?

Export Controls – What’s Next?

Joseph Young

Bureau of Industry and Security

Joseph Young

Bureau of Industry and Security


HPC EXPORT CONTROLS

  • US and Wassenaar partners maintain controls on HPCs for exports to certain countries (i.e., China, Russia and Pakistan)

  • National security benefits of controlling HPCs:

  • -- Prevents transfers to military end-users

  • -- Visibility into others use of computers for their national security work


Previous control metric
Previous Control Metric

  • Composite Theoretical Performance, measured in millions of theoretical operations per second (MTOPS), used for export controls since 1991

  • As a result of recent advances in computer and processor architectures, MTOPS:

    -- Increasingly less effective at ranking relative HPC performance

    -- Understates relative performance of vector HPCs

    (e.g., Cray X1 series)

    -- Difficult to calculate -- Decreasing relevance to HPCs and national security related work


IMPACT OF RAISING MTOPS THRESHOLD

1024-way

USPARC4

64-way NEC SX-8

384-way 1.5 GHz IA64

128-way

Cray X1E

128-way SGI Altix

128-way 1.5 GHz

IA64 NUMA

256-way 2 GHz

Power5

512-way

USPARC4

500K

License Req’d

128-way Cray X1

64-way Cray X1E

512-way

USPARC3

128-way Cray XD-1

32-way NEC SX-8

64-way NEC SX-6

300K

128-way 2 GHz

Power5

64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon

64-way Cray X1

Future Game

Consoles

512-way

Power3

64-way Cray XD-1

32-way 1.5 GHz

IA64 NUMA

32-way

3.2 GHz Xeon

32-way SGI Altix

72-way 1.7 GHz

Power4

190K

No License Req’d


Current hpc export controls
Current HPC Export Controls

  • 71 FR 20876 (April 24, 2006)

  • Replaced the CTP formula with the APP formula

    • The APP formula is much easier to calculate and addressed the shortcomings of CTP

  • Changed the licensing threshold from 190,000 MTOPS to 0.75 WT


CURRENT CONTROL METRIC

  • Adjusted Peak Performance (APP):

  • -- Measured in Weighted TeraFLOPS (WT)

  • -- Metric derived from existing industry standard-- Simple to calculate

  • Differentiates between high-end, special order HPCs (vector processors) and commodity off-the-shelf systems:

  • -- Protects high-end proprietary HPCs used by DoD and DoE for most advanced R&D and simulation

  • -- Significantly relaxes controls on “commodity” products (e.g., desktop personal computers and entertainment devices)


Wt values of the top500

7

6

vector systems

5

non-vector systems

4

WT Value

3

2

1

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Rank in the TOP500

WT Values of the Top500

Source: Nov 2004 list


1024-way

USPARC4

384-way 1.5 GHz IA64

128-way

Cray X1E

128-way Cray X1

512-way Cray XD-1

256-way 2 GHz

Power5

64-way Cray X1E

64-way NEC SX-8

512-way

USPARC4

128-way 2 GHz

Power5

256-way Cray XD-1

64-way Cray X1

512-way

USPARC3

512-way

Power3

128-way 1.5 GHz

IA64 NUMA

64-way NEC SX-6

128-way SGI Altix

32-way NEC SX-8

64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon

72-way 1.7 GHz

Power4

128-way Cray XD-1

32-way

3.2 GHz Xeon

32-way 1.5 GHz

IA64 NUMA

32-way SGI Altix

IMPACT OF APP CONTROL METRIC

1.5

License Req’d

1

0.75

No License Req’d

Future Game

Consoles



What’s Next?


Moore’s Law

HPC Performance

Historical Perspective

Source: IDA, MCTP


Observations
Observations

  • In three years, 25th-ranked system is off the Top500.

  • HPC performance growth greater than Moore’s Law => ability to connect multiple processors continues to grow.

  • Making efficient use of multiple processors has not grown as fast.


Distribution of “Clusters” on Top500

80

70

60

Number of “Clusters” Represented

50

40

30

20

10

1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500

Top500 Ranking



Observations

From the June 2005 Top500

  • Vector machines comprise 3.6% of the Top500, down from 31.6% in June 1995.

  • Over 75% of the systems use general-purpose interconnection fabric.

  • Clusters account for 60% of the Top500--fairly evenly distributed across the list.

  • There may have been a shake-out in suppliers and self-assembly.

  • Significant share of systems produced outside of Japan and US.


Prognosis
Prognosis

  • Increasing reliance on COTS components.

  • Only governments (Japan and US) support non-COTS development.

  • Peak performance will reach one petaflops well before 2010.

  • Sustained performance may reach 1 P by 2010.


Moore’s Law is not a linear relationship.

APP

CTP

PDR

TOP 500 LIST DATA


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