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Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything?

Climate Literacy Conference San Diego 18 Feb 2010. Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything?. Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology Stanford, CA kcaldeira@stanford.edu. How do we know anything?. Thought, intuition, interior reflection

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Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything?

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  1. Climate Literacy Conference San Diego 18 Feb 2010 Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and ClimateHow do we know anything? Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global EcologyStanford, CAkcaldeira@stanford.edu

  2. How do we know anything? • Thought, intuition, interior reflection • Unplanned direct experience • Family, friends, etc • TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots • Planned empirical investigation • Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information

  3. Can we trust our own experience? by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

  4. Can we trust our own experience? by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

  5. Can we trust our own experience? by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

  6. How do we know anything? • What food to eat? • Which things are really dangerous? • Which investments are safe? • Whether human-induced climate change is a real threat? • Which energy technologies or approaches can really diminish climate risk?

  7. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions exceed natural emissions by a factor of about 100

  8. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall A1B(Av) 9 A1FI(Av) A1T(Av) A2(Av) 2005 B1(Av) 8 B2(Av) CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Projection 7 6 5 1990 2000 2010 Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

  9. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall A1B(Av) 9 A1FI(Av) 2006 A1T(Av) A2(Av) 2005 B1(Av) 8 B2(Av) CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Projection 7 6 5 1990 2000 2010 Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

  10. 2008 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall 2007 A1B(Av) 9 A1FI(Av) 2006 A1T(Av) A2(Av) 2005 B1(Av) 8 B2(Av) CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Projection 7 6 5 1990 2000 2010 Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

  11. Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth -1.1% International Energy Agency, October 2009

  12. 2009 2008 Projection 2009: Emissions: -2.8% GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7% Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall 2007 A1B(Av) 9 A1FI(Av) 2006 A1T(Av) A2(Av) 2005 B1(Av) 8 B2(Av) CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Projection 7 6 5 1990 2000 2010 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; updated Raupach unpublished; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-Geo, in press

  13. Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) 2000-2006 fossil fuel emissions 7.6 Source deforestation 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.1 Sink land 2.8 ocean 2.2 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  14. Ice core and instrumental records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Petit et al (1999)

  15. Fig by Robert A. Rohde

  16. Ischia, Italy Map created by Norman Einstein

  17. Low CO2= Native shellfish High CO2= Invasive grasses CO2 dissolving shells and skeletons Hall-Spencer / BBC Thanks, Jason Hall-Spencer

  18. Chemistry ofocean acidification

  19. Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons CO32- H2O HCO3- H H O O O O O O O C C C O O O CO32- Ca H Ca2+ (dissolved)

  20. Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons CO32- H2O HCO3- H H O O O O O O O C C C O O O CO32- Ca H Ca2+ (dissolved)

  21. Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons CO32- H2O HCO3- H H O O O O O O O C C C O O O CO32- Ca H Ca2+ (dissolved)

  22. Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons H2O HCO3- H H O O O O O O O C C C O O O Ca CO32- H CaCO3 (solid)

  23. Water, dissolved carbon, and shells and skeletons CaCO3 (solid) H2O HCO3- H H O O O O O O O C C C O O O Ca CO32- H

  24. Addition of CO2 CaCO3 (solid) O C O CO2 H2O HCO3- H H O O O O O O O C C C O O O Ca CO32- H

  25. Formation of carbonic acid H H HCO3- H2CO3 O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca CO32- H CaCO3 (solid)

  26. Increasing ocean acidity H+ H HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca CO32- H H HCO3- CaCO3 (solid)

  27. Increasing ocean acidity H+ H HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca CO32- H H HCO3- CaCO3 (solid)

  28. Increasing ocean acidity H+ H HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca CO32- H H HCO3- CaCO3 (solid)

  29. Increasing ocean acidity CaCO3 (solid) H+ H HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca CO32- H H HCO3-

  30. Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons H+ H HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca CO32- H H HCO3- CaCO3 (solid)

  31. Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O Ca HCO3- H H H HCO3- CaCO3 (solid)

  32. Dissolving shells and skeletons CO32- HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O HCO3- Ca H Ca2+ (dissolved) H H HCO3-

  33. Dissolving shells and skeletons CO32- HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O HCO3- Ca H Ca2+ (dissolved) H H HCO3-

  34. Dissolving shells and skeletons CO32- HCO3- O O O O O O O O C C C C O O O O HCO3- Ca H Ca2+ (dissolved) H H HCO3-

  35. Lizard IslandExpedition September 2008

  36. We measured of coral skeletal growth rates 40% lower than in the late 1970’s

  37. Distribution of corals andocean acidification

  38. Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 ΩAragonite Corrosive Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008

  39. Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 ΩAragonite Corrosive Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008

  40. Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 ΩAragonite Corrosive Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008

  41. Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 ΩAragonite Corrosive Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008

  42. Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 ΩAragonite Corrosive Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008

  43. Carbon dioxide level,Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 0 1 2 3 4 5 ΩAragonite Corrosive Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008

  44. Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

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