Russian energy under Putin’s next presidential term Aleksanteri election seminar Aleksanteri Institute, 14 March 2012. What is to be expected in the gas and oil sector development? 2.What role for the energy sector in Russian economy?.
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Russian energy under Putin’s next presidential term
Aleksanteri election seminar
Aleksanteri Institute, 14 March 2012
An almost fourfold increase in total export revenues between 2000-2010
Much of the potential for volume growth has exhausted.
Price effect is primarily externality, downward risks are present.
Russia is not a classical oil state, growth is not exclusively oil related.
The memories of 1998 have been fading away?
High oil prices already locked in the Russian budgetary policy.
Can the oil revenues further support fiscal expansion?
Trends after 2008:
(1) Oil revenues too volatile and could not support further social spending:
Increasing taxation of non-oil related sectors (labour, sectoral taxes).
(2) Selective, pin-point tax exemptions for some companies (primarily NOCs)
Tax potential erased slightly, new investments will probably provide less taxes.
The share of oil revenues have been slightly decreasing in total revenues.
Incremental social spending have been financed from other, than energy-related
revenues (primarily living up the reserves).
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