Achieving Energy and Environmental Security: A Challenge for the United States

1. Achieving Energy and Environmental Security: A Challenge for the United States Toufiq A. Siddiqi President, Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century (GEE-21), Honolulu, Hawaii, USA And Adjunct Senior Fellow, East-West Center (EWC), Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Presented at the Regional Workshop on Energy and Non-Traditional Security Held at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 28-28 August 2008

2. Overview of Presentation • Background • Energy Security Challenges for the U.S. • Energy – Related Environmental Challenges • The U.S. and Global Climate Change • Achieving Energy and Environmental Security • Conclusions

3. 1.Background • Wood was by far the largest source of energy in the U.S. until the 1860s. • Coal supplied most of the energy for the industrial revolution in the United States, as it had in Europe. It still supplies over 20% of the total U.S. energy consumption. • Petroleum has been the largest source of energy in the U.S. since the 1950s.

4. Share of Energy Supplied by Different Sources in the U.S., 2007 Data Source: Energy Information Administration, 2008

5. Share of Energy Used in Different Sectors in the U.S., 2007 Data Source: Energy Information Administration, 2008

6. 2. Some Energy Security Challenges Facing the United States • Energy Security requires meeting not only the overall energy demand, but also meeting the energy requirements of specific sectors. • The transportation sector depends on Petroleum for 96% of its energy requirement. It will take many decades to substantially change the structure of this sector.

7. Energy Security Challenges (continued) • During 2007, U.S. imported over 500 million tonnes of crude oil, and over 100 million tonnes of oil products. Such high reliance on imports leaves the country highly vulnerable to supply disruptions. • Even though no region supplies more than about 20% of its imports, the oil supply chain is highly integrated, and supply disruptions in one region quickly result in shortages and price increases almost everywhere.

8. Energy Security Challenges (continued) • Of the 132 nuclear power plants receiving full-power approval from 1957-2007, 28 have been shut down permanently. The number of operating units has declined by 8% since 1990. • The political and social obstacles to increasing nuclear power are considerable. However, greater use of nuclear electricity is one of the principal options available at present.

9. Energy Security Challenges (continued) • 75% of the energy for the residential and commercial sector is provided by natural gas. Additional imports of natural gas may have to come in the form of imported LNG at higher cost than gas piped from Canada or Mexico. • U.S. is already importing about 3% of its natural gas consumption as LNG, mainly from Trinidad & Tobago, Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria. The largest proven reserves of natural gas in the world are in Russia and Iran, but the U.S. is unlikely to import LNG from those countries.

10. 3. Energy-Related Environmental Challenges • Energy Consumption has the largest impact on air quality and respiratory diseases arising from air pollution. • The use of wood for energy in the past led to significant changes in the ecosystems in the United States. • Discharges of energy wastes on land (e.g. of ash from coal combustion) and into rivers and oceans (e.g. disposal of engine oil and discharges from tankers), although decreasing, continue to affect waterways and oceans.

11. Energy-Related Environmental Challenges (continued) • Radioactive wastes continue to be stored at nuclear power plants, due to opposition by individual states to transporting them or storing them within the states. • Due to time constraints, we shall not discuss these topics here, but move on to the issue of global climate change and the role of the U.S.

12. 4. The United States and Global Climate Change • The U.S. has been, and still is, the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases that result in global climate change. • It has also been a leading contributor to our understanding of the scientific basis of climate change and of analyzing the impacts of such change • The United States has been a crucial holdout amongst the industrialized nations in agreeing to set limits on greenhouse gas emissions to slow and ultimately stabilize the world’s climate.

13. Trends in Emissions of Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels, 1950-2008

14. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, Top 10 Emitting Countries, 2006

15. The United States and Global Climate Change (continued) • For comparison purposes, carbon dioxide emissions from other large Asia-Pacific economies are shown in the next Figure. • The U. S. accumulated emissions of carbon dioxide from energy use since 1850 are more than 3 times those from any other country.

16. Other Major Carbon Dioxide Emitters from Fossil Fuel use in Asia and the Pacific, 2006

17. Accumulated Emissions of Carbon Dioxide from fossil fuels, 1850-2005

18. 5. Achieving Energy and Environmental Security • In today’s highly interdependent world, no country can expect to have security by itself when other countries are insecure. This is particularly true for non-traditional security, such as energy security and environmental security. • Disparities in the quality of life of citizens in different countries reflect in part the differences in energy and environmental security. Reducing such disparities is an important goal of world development.

19. Achieving Energy and Environmental Security (continued) • The energy consumption per capita in the United States is about twice that of the industrialized European countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom, and of Japan. However, the GDP per capita of these countries is comparable. The U.S. needs to improve energy efficiency considerably. • The emissions of carbon dioxide per capita in the United States are double those in Europe and Japan, about 4 times those in China and 20 times those in India.

20. Per Capita emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, largest emitting countries, 2006

21. Achieving Energy and Environmental Security (continued) • Stabilization of global climate during this century requires reducing total emissions of greenhouse gases to well below current emissions. • Emphasis within the U.S. on energy security needs to shift from efforts to expand oil and gas supplies to using energy more efficiently and increasing the share of renewable energy. Both will also enhance environmental security.

22. Achieving Energy and Environmental Security (continued) • Renewable energy supplies 7% of total energy consumed in the U.S. in 2007. Most of this is from hydropower, but the use of wind power has expanded greatly during the past ten years. During 2007, $9 billion was spent on adding over 5,000 MW of wind capacity. Total wind power capacity now stands at about 17,000 MW. • Solar PV has been much slower in increasing, due to higher cost, but is expected to grow faster if fossil fuel prices stay high.

23. Need to reconcile U.S. and Developing Country Perspectives • The United States has stated that it will not reduce emissions unless developing countries such as China and India also do so. It argues that unilateral reductions will hurt its economy, while overall global emissions keep increasing. • The developing countries say that the emphasis should be on per capita emissions rather than total emissions. Limiting emissions now will prevent them from further developing their economies.

24. Achieving Energy and Environmental Security (continued) • One possible approach is to set a goal of, for example, reaching 2 tons of carbon equivalent emissions per capita by 2025 for each country. A few additional years could be given for countries starting from a very high base, such as Australia, Canada, and USA. • Won’t present a difficulty for Asian countries except Japan, South Korea, and possibly China. • A longer term goal would be to get well below 1ton of carbon equivalent per capita by 2050.

25. 6. Conclusions • Global Climate Change presents an unusual example of a challenge in which the security of every country’s environment is closely linked to that of all the other countries. By addressing this concern vigorously, the United States would be helping itself as well as helping the rest of the world.

26. Conclusions (continued) • One benefit of higher energy prices is that the economic, energy, and environmental security of the U.S. requires that it place a greater emphasis on using energy more efficiently, and on accelerating the development of non-fossil energy sources. This is already beginning to happen, e.g. with wind power.

27. Conclusions • Many states and companies in the private sector have already set goals within their jurisdictions to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. • The U.S. Congress has already passed or introduced legislation that requires or promotes such measures throughout the country. • The next U.S. administration is likely to be quite active in addressing issues of energy and environmental security.

28. Thanks! • I would like to thank our hosts at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies for inviting me to make this presentation. • I would also like to thank the audience for putting up with a presentation where the author is not present to receive comments and answer questions. You are invited to send these by e-mail to t.siddiqi@att.net.