Climate change scenarios development p gomboluudev and p batima
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Climate Change Scenarios Development P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA. Why we are studying climate change ? Climate condition and its change are one of the limiting factors for economic development of the country

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Climate change scenarios development p gomboluudev and p batima l.jpg

Climate Change Scenarios Development P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA


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  • Why we are studying climate change ?

  • Climate condition and its change are one of the limiting factors for economic development of the country

  • Last 40 years the ecosystem of Mongolia is clearly changed as result of combination of climate change and human activity

  • Mongolian ecosystem is very vulnerable and sensitive to the climate change. Because of severe continental climate

  • The study result gives background understand of the level of potential impacts of climate change on environment and economic sectors

  • Identify the response measures in human life to adapt under changes in climate system


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Observed Global Climate Change

  • CO2 concentration is increased 280 ppm for period 1750 to 368 ppm in 2000, 31%

  • Global mean surface is increased by 0.6 0C, land areas warmed more than oceans

  • Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is increased over the 20th century greater than during any other century in last 1000 years

  • Hot days/Heat index is increased

  • Frequency and severity of drought is increased by 5-10%over 20th century Northern Hemisphere

  • Heavy precipitation events is increased at mid and high northern latitude

  • Global mean see level is increased by 20 sm since 1900

  • Snow cover is decreased by 10% since 1960

  • Growing season is lengthened by 1 to 4 days per decade during 40 years


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Recent Trends of Global Average Surface Temperature

A combination of surface air temperature over land and sea-surface temperature over the ocean. Individual bars show annual values as deviations from 1961-1990 average.


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Present Climate Feature in Mongolia

  • Climate of Mongolia is harsh continental with sharply defined seasons, high annual and diurnal temperature fluctuations, low rainfall and relatively long duration of sunshine in a year.

  • Average annual temperatures are around 8.5oC in the Gobi and -7.8oC in the high mountainous areas.

  • The extreme minimum temperature is -31.1oC to -52.9oC in January and the extreme maximum temperature is +28.5oC to +42.2oC in July.

  • Annual mean precipitation is 300-400 mm in the mountain regions, and 150-250 mm in the steppe, 100-150 mm in the steppe-desert and 50-100 mm in the Gobi-desert areas. About 85-90 per cent of total precipitation falls in summer

  • Mongolia has on an average 3,000 hours of sunshine annually


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Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia

  • During the last 60 years

  • Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C this increase was greater in the winter (3.610C), and smaller in the spring (1.4-1.50C)

  • Winter warming is more in the high mountain regions, and less in the steppe and Gobi and desert.

  • There is no significant changes in annual precipitation amount.





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Future Climate Change Scenarios in Mongolia in last 30 years

Method of Climate Change Study and Its Impact Study


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  • Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models

  • winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter

  • It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry


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Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990 climate models

January July


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Model climate models

Temperature

Observed

Simulation

BIAS

St. deviation

Variation

1.HadCM3

Annual mean

0.66

-0.44

1.13

1.32

1.75

Summer

17.02

16.22

0.79

1.46

2.14

Winter

-17.55

-18.42

0.92

3.21

10.03

2. CGCM3

Annual mean

0.66

-7.06

7.63

4.78

22.88

Summer

17.02

12.16

4.75

3.39

11.55

Winter

-17.55

-27.06

9.44

6.76

45.4

3. CSIRO

Annual mean

0.66

-0.86

1.54

3.25

10.54

Summer

17.02

19.18

-2.16

3.33

11.06

Winter

-17.55

-18.02

0.53

5.27

27.27

How accurate is the climate model?


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Time slice climate models

Winter

Summer

Annual

Temperature, Celsius

2020

0.85

1.99

1.37

2050

2.37

3.53

2.81

2080

3.89

6.35

4.88

Precipitation, mm

2020

5.0

-5.2

9.1

2050

8.2

15.1

44.3

2080

14.2

13.6

55.4

Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios

by HadCM3 Climate Model




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Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2 climate models

1961-1990

2020

2050

2080