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Lecture Outlines Natural Disasters, 7 th edition Patrick L. Abbott Natural Disasters and the Human Population Natural Disasters, 7 th edition, Chapter 1 Natural Disasters in 2004 and 2005 More than 280,000 people killed by natural disasters in 2004, almost 100,000 in 2005

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slide3

Natural Disasters in 2004 and 2005

  • More than 280,000 people killed by natural disasters in 2004, almost 100,000 in 2005
  • 2005 Pakistan earthquake: 88,000 people killed
    • 3.3 million left homeless
    • 2nd wave of deaths from winter storm
  • 2005 Hurricane Katrina
    • 2004 Hurricane Ivan was dress rehearsal, close miss
    • 2005 Hurricane Katrina was direct hit on Mississippi, engulfed much of Gulf Coast
    • Failure of Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain levees flooded parts of New Orleans up to 20 feet
slide6

Human Fatalities in Natural Disasters

  • Sawtooth-shaped curve caused by largest natural disasters
  • Biggest killers (in order): hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, severe weather, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes and tsunami
  • Most mega-killer disasters occur in densely populated belt through Asia, along Indian Ocean – number of fatalities is proportional to density of population
  • Effects on survivors
    • Increase in altruism

Figure 1.4

slide7

Economic Losses from Natural Disasters

  • Destruction and damage to structures, loss of productivity and wages
  • Increase in economic losses over time is result of increase in human population and urbanization
  • Most expensive events caused by storms and occurred in U.S., Europe and Japan
slide8

Natural Hazards

  • Hazard exists even where disasters are infrequent
  • Evaluate site risk
  • Mitigation prior to event
    • Engineering, physical, social and political plans and actions to reduce death and destruction from natural hazards
  • Mitigation after event
    • Rebuilding and re-inhabiting same site
    • Case history: Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico
      • Eruptions in 822, 1519 and beginning again in 1994
      • Currently 100,000 people living at base

Figure 1.5

slide9

Magnitude, Frequency, and Return Period

  • Inverse correlation between frequency (how often it occurs) and magnitude (how big it is) of a process
    • Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, rare occurrences are high in magnitude
    • Small-scale activity is common, big events are rare
    • Larger the event, longer the return period (recurrence interval)
  • Probability estimates of various size (10-fatality, 1000-fatality, etc.) occurrences can be considered
  • Cost-benefit ratio can be considered in conjunction with return-period of given magnitude event
slide10

Overview of Human Population History

  • Difficult to assess early human population growth
  • Human species ‘began’ approximately 160,000 years ago, with a few thousand people
  • Human population has grown to over 6.7 billion people in 2008
  • Growth rate is exponential

Figure 1.7

slide11

Side Note: Interest Paid on Money: An Example of Exponential Growth

Visualize exponential growth in terms of doubling time

  • Number of years for population to double in size, given annual percentage growth rate
  • Doubling time =
  • 70
  • % growth rate/year
  • Example of interest paid on money
    • Linear growth: $1000 + $100 / year
    • Exponential growth: $1000 + 7% / year
  • Example of water lily plant in pond
    • Doubles in size every day
    • Covers half the pond the day before it covers the whole pond

Figure 1.9

slide12

The Last 10,000 Years of Human History

  • Flat population growth curve until 8,000 years ago
    • Agriculture established
    • Domestication of animals
    • Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year
  • By 2,000 years ago, population ~200 million people
    • Better shelter, food, water supplies  faster population growth
    • Growth rate of 0.056%/year
  • By 1750, population
  • ~800 million people

Figure 1.8

slide13

The Last 10,000 Years of Human History

  • By 1750, population ~800 million people
    • Public health principles, causes of disease recognized
    • Birth rates soared, death rates dropped
  • 1810: ~1 billion
  • 1925: ~2 billion
  • 1960: ~3 billion Insert figure 1.10 here
  • 1974: ~4 billion
  • 1987: ~5 billion
  • 1999: ~6 billion
  • By 2013, projected population ~7 billion

Figure 1.10

slide14

The Human Population Today

  • Present population: (insert number)
    • Growth rate = 1.2%/year
    • Doubling time = 58 years
  • Growth rate =
  • fertility (birth) rate – mortality (death) rate
  • Human population grows by about 80 million people per year
slide15

Future World Population

  • Demographic transition theory:
    • Mortality and fertility ratesdeclinefrom high to low levels because of economic and social development
  • Population Reference Bureau estimates world population growth rates aredropping
    • From 1.8%in 1990 to1.2%in 2008
    • Due to urbanization and increased opportunities for women
slide17

Future World Population

  • BUTpopulation explosioncontinues
    • From 1950 to 2000 population grew from 2.5 billion to 6 billion
    • Growth rate of1.2%/yearmeans population of 9 billion in 2050
  • Consider no. of births / woman topredict 2150 population
    • Average 1.6 children/woman:3.6 billion
    • Average 2 children/woman:10.8 billion
    • Average 2.6 children/woman (current average):27 billion
slide18

Demographic Divide

  • Wealthy countries: low birth rates, long life expectancies
  • Poor countries: high birth rates, short life expectancies
  • Examples of Japan’s shrinking population vs. Nigeria’s expanding population

Insert table 1.10

slide19

Carrying Capacity

  • How many people can Earth support?
    • Calculations of carrying capacity vary considerably
    • Increasing amounts of food can be produced
    • People can migrate from areas of famine or poverty to less crowded or wealthier areas
  • BUT Earth’s resources are finite, so solutions are temporary

Figure 1.15

slide20

Carrying Capacity

  • Example of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
    • Isolated Pacific island with poor soil and little water
    • Settled by 25-50 Polynesians in 5th century
    • Survived easily on chickens and yams, plenty of free time
    • Developed elaborate competition between clans with moai (statues)
  • Civilization peaked at 1550, with population of ~7000

Figure 1.14

slide21

Carrying Capacity

  • Example of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
    • Reached by a Dutch ship in 1722
      • Found about 2,000 people living in caves
      • Primitive society, constant warfare
    • Rapa Nui’s carrying capacity had been drastically lowered by society’s actions:
      • Transportation of moai had required cutting down trees
      • Erosion of soil made yams scarce
      • Lack of canoes made fishing difficult and escape impossible
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