1 / 8

Prognosis 2030 – A Vision

Prognosis 2030 – A Vision. February 19 2008 T.A. Cruse, DARPA/DSO Consultant Dayton, Ohio 45459. The Perfect World for Prognosis. Damage progression is deterministic Perfect knowledge of microstructural features, chemistry, initial strains, etc.

elin
Download Presentation

Prognosis 2030 – A Vision

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Prognosis 2030 – A Vision February 19 2008 T.A. Cruse, DARPA/DSO Consultant Dayton, Ohio 45459

  2. The Perfect World for Prognosis • Damage progression is deterministic • Perfect knowledge of microstructural features, chemistry, initial strains, etc. • Perfect physics-based damage models appropriate to microstructures • Ignorance of any = uncertainty • Usually seen as scatter in actual/predicted • Processing deviation = new population • Design error = major shift in new population • Prognosis is more than physics/chemistry DCT Workshop

  3. Prognosis is a 3-Legged Stool • Leg 1: Physics-based system state models • Response to defined/controlled processing • Response to defined/recorded environments • Prediction of future states, given initial state • Leg 2: System state “fingerprint” • Initial state definition and recording • Leg 3: State validation – “virtual sensor” • Linking Leg 1 with new NDE characterizations to provide updated system state “fingerprint” DCT Workshop

  4. What is New NDE? • What it is not • Finding cracks • Finding delaminations • Stiffness change • What it will include • Change detection • New signal processing • Witness mapping • Ping-ring response mode • Focus on state awareness • What it will be • Integral part of 3-legs DCT Workshop

  5. State Awareness Attributes • Real-time environmental loads & history • E.g., loads, thermal loads, humidity, chemistry, etc. • Real-time microstructural response • E.g., strain, temperature, diffusion, oxidation, etc. • Initial state “fingerprint” • Micro/macro state definition at service intro • Critical processing history state contributions • Current state “fingerprint” DCT Workshop

  6. Prognosis 2030 – the vision • Vast computational power in the system • Real-time state assessment updating • Real-time integration of initial state and environmental history • Real-time forensics (space systems/avionics) • Real-time communications to user for prognosing future state capabilities • “Columbia safe-return” scenario capability • System operates as integrated, virtual sensor • All three legs are fully integrated • State awareness through “new NDE” • Analytical system certification revolution • Fully risk based design/deployment with processing histories • Fully adaptive to individual part tracking up to the “tail number” DCT Workshop

  7. Prognosis 2030 - Challenges • Close the “scatter band” • High fidelity modeling – system response • High fidelity damage models • Complex 3D material systems • High heat flux loading environments/responses • Revolutionize material state awareness • Neural materials and systems • Ping-ring state updating • Global-local communications within system • Remote diagnostics/forensics • Future material system complexities • Hybrids, 3D and tailored systems, • Complete material processing • All things to be probabilistically integrated DCT Workshop

  8. Recommendations to Workshop • Assess balance between the three legs • High fidelity, probabilistic system modeling • Complex materials – damage state modeling • Microstructurally physics-based state processes • Cumulative history, fully-integrated mechanisms • Integrated, new NDE concepts • Self-assessing materials; automated reporting • Characterize the material state; integrate with models • Define the most important basic research enablers for each • Where are the greatest discovery potentials? • What are the most critical challenge problems? DCT Workshop

More Related