Electoral college outcomes
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Electoral College Outcomes. Recent patterns Current array of Dem , Rep, toss-up states Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2.

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Electoral College Outcomes

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Electoral college outcomes

Electoral College Outcomes

Recent patterns

Current array ofDem, Rep,toss-upstates

Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2

Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S. Constitution created the Electoral College. Each state receives as many electoral votes as it has senators and representatives. Therefore, each state, including the District of Columbia, will have at least three electors.


Recent patterns bush dukakis 1988

Recent patterns: Bush/Dukakis - 1988

Republicans win big

EC: Bush 426 (79%), Dukakis 111 (21%)

Votes: Bush – 48,886,097 (53.9%)

Dukakis – 41,809,074 (46.1%)

Total votes: 90,695,171

Reps=blue, Dems=Red


Recent patterns clinton dole 1996

Recent patterns: Clinton/Dole -1996

Democrats win big in 1996

EC: Clinton 379 (70%), Dole 159 (30%)

Votes: Clinton - 47,402,357 (49%);

Dole 39,198,755 (41%);

Perot – 8,085,402 (8%)

92,686,514 total votes


Recent patterns gore bush 2000

Recent patterns: Gore/Bush 2000

No one wins big

EC: Bush 271 (50.4%), Gore 266 (49.6%)

Vote: Bush – 50,456,002 (48.4%

Gore – 50,999,897 (48.9%)

Nader – 2,882,955 (2.8%)

Total Votes: 104,338,854


2004 general pattern of ec votes rep red dem blue and toss up white states

2004 – General Pattern:of EC Votes:Rep (Red),Dem (Blue)and Toss-up(White)States


Distribution of electoral college votes current distribution and democratic sure states 5

Distribution of Electoral College Votes – Current Distribution and Democratic “Sure” States (>5%)

  • Current distribution

  • Changes since 2000 – Dem sure states lost 3 EC votes

  • Total 183 but only 179 if Kerry loses Hawaii


Electoral college outcomes

Distribution of EC Votes:

Democrat “Leaning” States (2.5-5%)

  • Changes since 2000: Dem leaning states lose 4 EC votes

  • Total 65

  • Total blue sure and leaning 183+65=248

  • Minus (Hawaii): 244 (need 36 votes)


Distribution of ec votes rep sure states 5

Distribution of EC Votes: Rep “Sure” States, 5%+

  • Changes since 2000 -Rep states gain 3 EC votes

  • Total 217


Electoral college outcomes

Distribution of EC Votes:

Republican “Leaning” States

  • Changes since 2000: Rep leaning states gain 0 EC vote

  • Total 5

  • Total Rep sure and leaning 217+5=222

  • Add Hawaii: 226 (need 44 votes)


Electoral college outcomes

Distribution of EC Votes:

“Toss-up” States (-2% to +2%)

Changes since 2000: Toss-up states gain 2 EC votes

Total 68


1 st scenario

1st Scenario

Bush Wins “Big”

Assumptions:

  • Wins all Rep sure states = 217

  • Wins all Rep leaning and Hi=9

  • Wins all toss-up states =68

  • Wins Minn. and Michigan =27

  • Total Bush: 321


2 nd scenario

2nd Scenario

Bush Wins “Small”

Assumptions:

  • Wins all Rep states = 217

  • Wins Rep leaning =5

  • Wins all toss-up states=68

  • Total Bush: 276

  • Total Bush win range: 276-321


4 scenarios

4 Scenarios

Kerry Wins “Small”

  • Assumptions:

  • Wins all Dem sure states except Hi = 179

  • Wins all Dem leaning=65

  • Wins one large toss-up state =Florida=27

  • OR: wins Ohio (20) +Iowa (7) =27

  • Total Kerry: 271


4 th scenario

4th Scenario

Kerry Wins “Big”

  • Assumptions:

  • Wins all Dem sure states including Hi = 183

  • Wins all Dem leaning states = 65

  • Wins all toss-up states =68

  • Total Kerry: 316

  • Total Kerry win range: 271-316


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