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Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed. “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME Forecaster Orientation Meeting Tuscon, AZ April 22, 2004. Overview. Define NCEP Review Climate-Weather linkage Basis for a Hydromet Test Bed.

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Proposal for a climate weather hydromet test bed

Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

Louis W. Uccellini

Director, NCEP

NAME Forecaster Orientation Meeting

Tuscon, AZ

April 22, 2004


Overview
Overview

  • Define NCEP

  • Review Climate-Weather linkage

  • Basis for a Hydromet Test Bed



Ncep mission statement
NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

Space Environment Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center


Total FTE: 426*

131 Contractors/24 Visitors

*As of 10/1/04

*51 FTE


Ncep s future is built upon
NCEP’s Future is Built Upon:

  • Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages; for example

    • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks & Extratropical Storm patterns

    • Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts

    • Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts

    • Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts

    • Relationship of solar activity on service provision and climate fluctuations

    • Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and operational models

  • “Seamless Suite” of products through a collaborative approach

  • Extension of predictability of Weather and Climate (from snowstorms to ENSO); Improve the forecasts of Extreme Events

  • Community Model Approach – Common Model Infrastructure

  • Addressing uncertainty in forecasts – Ensemble modeling

    NEW

  • Collaborative Forecasting

  • Unified Model Infrastructure applied from the “Sun to the Sea”



Climate weather linkage1
Climate – Weather Linkage

  • Key to seamless suite of NWS products

  • Is based primarily on the water cycle!

  • Climate and weather communities have an equal focus on QPF

    • NAME: focus on warm-season QPF forced by hemispheric to synoptic scale

    • USWRP/IHOP: focus on QPF, recognizes warm-season precipitation as key to improving QPF scores, focus on synoptic to mesoscale

    • THORPEX: in planning stage (WMO)


Hpc qpf verification 1 inch threat score
HPC QPF Verification1-inch Threat Score


HPC QPF verification

Day 1, 1 inch, Jan-Dec 2003


Summer HPC QPF verification

Day 1, 1 inch(June, July, Aug average score)

Threat Score



Basis for hydromet test bed1
Basis for Hydromet Test Bed

  • The challenge for linking climate/weather patterns is “hydrometeorological” in nature and are being addressed through model advancements

    • New “breakthrough” Climate Forecast System being introduced

    • WRF implementation/Eta Upgrades/Increase number of SREF members

    • Global Ensembles 4 per day with increased resolution

  • All of these systems need systematic assessment of forecast skill

  • The assessment needs:

    • Forecaster input

    • A QPF focus


Basis for hydromet test bed cont
Basis for Hydromet Test Bed (cont.)

  • Whether the forecast scale is seasonal/hemispheric or short-term/national to local, addressing the science issues

    • Will involve study of physics/dynamics

    • Will base advanced modeling approaches on a combination of higher resolution and ensemble approaches

    • Will have to link the “physics” of land, hydrology, oceans and atmosphere within these models

    • Will depend on optimal use of global observations to initialize models and verify forecasts

    • Will depend on model-forecaster interactions


Hydromet test bed goals
Hydromet Test Bed Goals

  • Improve QPFs from short-term to seasonal

  • Address the ‘optimal combination’ of modeling approaches from the high resolution to ensemble-based stochastic models

  • Provide key “tools” to forecast community including training in the new ensemble world for a more rapid transition from the research to operational community

  • Help address the key global observations and related data assimilation to improve QPF at all scales


Hydromet test bed proposal
Hydromet Test Bed Proposal

  • NCEP is ideally suited to host test bed

    • Co-location of CPC and HPC

    • Expanding collaboration forecast procedure to include RFCs and WFOs (providing basis for a distributed test bed?)

    • Location of the International Training Desks

      • Could accommodate scientist and forecasters from Mexico in a bilingual environment (already includes Central America)

    • Co-located with the EMC and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

    • Committed to making this work for both the climate and weather communities


Current status
Current Status

  • Proposal being considered by USWRP & HPC/CPC

  • Resources being reviewed within NCEP to see what can be “reallocated”

  • Effort will commence to provide a management structure if both communities agree to sustain forward movement


Summary
Summary

  • Excited by NAME – a world class experiment

  • Opportunity exists for the climate-weather partnership to address this critical warm-season QPF

  • NCEP will support creation of a Hydromet Test Bed



What does ncep do

Severe Storm Outlooks

Fire Weather Outlooks

Winter Weather Guidance

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days

Weather Forecasts to Day 7

Day 8-14 Critical Weather Outlooks

Marine Weather Discussions

Model Discussions

Severe Weather Watches

Marine High Seas Forecasts

Hurricane Watches and Warnings

Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing)

Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual)

Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts

What Does NCEP Do?

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC

National Products

  • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and RRegional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

  • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

  • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations


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