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Skills in the West Midlands Economy A Black Country Perspective BCTG Equality and Diversity Conference Mike Bell, LSC Area Director, Black Country and Staffordshire. Welcome. Please raise your hands if you wish to commit economic and social suicide Does it make economic sense to….?.

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slide1

Skills in the West Midlands Economy

A Black Country Perspective

BCTG Equality and Diversity Conference

Mike Bell, LSC Area Director, Black Country and Staffordshire

Welcome

slide2

Please raise your hands if you wish to commit economic and social suicide

Does it make economic sense to….?

slide3

The Seven Areas of Equality

  • Ethnicity
  • Gender
  • Disability
  • Age
  • Faith
  • Sexual Orientation
  • Transgender
slide4

West Midlands - Estimated Resident Population

(16-64) by Ethnic Group (000s)

Source: Office for National Statistics (Resident Population Estimates, mid-2006, experimental statistics)

slide5

Total Population by Gender

Source: Population Estimates 2007

slide6
6.8 million disabled people of working age in Britain, yet only 50% of disabled people in employment compared to 81% of non-disabled people
  • 18% of working age population in England
  • 18.5% of working age population in West Midlands
  • 602,500 people in West Midlands
slide7

Lord Leitch’s Review of Skills and Government Response

  • UK doing well, but not well enough by 2020
  • Step change needed in skills levels
  • Public money must focus; private sector must invest
  • Provision should be demand-led
  • Maximise all sources of skills
slide8
Short-term – slowing/reduction in employment, but demand for skillsMedium-term - growth in employment, and demand for skills

Demand Issues

slide12

West Midlands Employment by Occupation

and Gender 2008

Source: Annual Population Survey 2008

employment projections 2004 2014
Employment Projections 2004-2014
  • 940,000 replacement jobs across the region
  • 90,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph)

Source: LSC/ SSDA Working Futures

employment projections 2007 2017
Employment Projections 2007-2017
  • 984,000 replacement jobs across the region
  • 125,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph)

Source: Working Futures III

slide21
The quality and availability of skilled labour remains challenging, despite immediate economic circumstances

Supply Issues

minority ethnic composition of the west midlands 2001 2005
Minority Ethnic Composition of the West Midlands 2001-2005

Source: ONS Estimated resident population by ethnic group and sex, mid-2005, (experimental statistics)

slide24

Deprivation within

Black Country

slide25

The Region has the third highest number of SOAs in the most deprived 10% in England

28% of the Black Country’s SOAs in national 10% most deprived

Source: IMD 2004

Source: IMD 2004

proportion of pupils achieving 5 or more a c grades 2008 provisional
Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or more A*-C Grades 2008 Provisional

England Average

Source: DCFS 2008

proportion of pupils achieving 5 or more a c grades including maths and english 2008 provisional
Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or more A*-C Grades, including Maths and English, 2008 Provisional

England Average

Source: DCFS 2008

gcse attainment of pupils at the end of key stage 4 in the west midlands by ethnicity 2006 07
GCSE Attainment of Pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 in the West Midlands by Ethnicity 2006/07

All pupils

Source: DCSF

proportion of pupils achieving 5 or more a c grades including maths and english 2007 by ethnicity
Proportion of Pupils Achieving 5 or moreA*-C Grades, including Maths and English, 2007 by Ethnicity

Source: DCSF 2007 – 2008 data not yet available

slide31

Apprenticeships

Engineering2% of apprentices are female

4% are from ethnic minority communities

6% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem

Plumbing2% of apprentices are female2% are from ethnic minority communities7% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem

Children’s Care, Learning and Development3% of apprentices are male10% are from ethnic minority communities18% have a learning difficulty, disability or health problem

post 16 general and applied a as or equivalent achievement 2008 provisional
Post-16 General and Applied A/AS or Equivalent Achievement 2008 Provisional

England Average

Source: DCFS 2008

slide33
But surely numbers of young people are declining?Isn’t 70% of the 2014 workforcealready in employment now?Yes – but…
slide35

Net Change in the Working Age Population

of the West Midlands between 1981 and 2006

Source: ONS 2006 Mid-year population estimates

slide36

Net Change in Working Age Population

West Midlands – 2006-2031

Source: ONS 2006 Mid-year population estimates

older workers are poorly represented in growth sectors such as retail hotels and ict
Older Workers are Poorly Represented in Growth Sectors such as Retail, Hotels and ICT

Source: LFS Spring 2006

slide38

Projected Change in West Midlands

Population from 2001 to 2020

Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation 2006, Socio-demographic

Scenarios for children

employment rates among minority ethnic groups are low in the region
Employment Rates among Minority EthnicGroups are low in the Region

Employment rate of ethnic groups in West Midlands

Source: LFS 2003-2005

never mind we ll just get our skilled workforce from other parts of the west midlands or will they
Never mind – we’ll just get our skilled workforce from other parts of the West Midlands…..or will they?
employment projections 2007 201741
Employment Projections 2007-2017
  • 984,000 replacement jobs across the region
  • 125,000 new jobs (distributed geographically on graph)

Source: Working Futures III

whichever way you look at it we have a challenge
Whichever way you look at it, we have a challenge
  • Unemployment - rising
  • Qualifications levels – not rising fast enough
  • Skills levels – too low – not rising fast enough
  • Age/demography – against us if we carry on as before
  • Short-term – Economic Downturn
  • Medium-term - competitive demand/ projected growth
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