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The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt

The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt. Dr. Charles K. Ebinger And Evie Zambetakis Energy Security Initiative The Brookings Institution. Arctic Melt. Climate change, feedback loops More than one million square miles of ice melted in 2007

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The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt

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  1. The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt Dr. Charles K. Ebinger And Evie Zambetakis Energy Security Initiative The Brookings Institution

  2. Arctic Melt • Climate change, feedback loops • More than one million square miles of ice melted in 2007 • We could have ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2013 or 2015 • New environmental and strategic challenges

  3. Arctic Melt: What you need to know The short- to medium-term debate: new or existing multinational frameworks for Arctic governance Technology is a key barrier to the “scramble” for access to shipping and E&P of hydrocarbons The US is far behind the rest of the Arctic states on its Arctic policy and presence

  4. Legal Frameworks and International Cooperation • UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) • Arctic Council • Challenges to governance

  5. Shipping Routes Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/arctic-sea-routes-northern-sea-route-and-northwest-passage

  6. Geopolitical Flashpoints

  7. Icebreaker Fleets Russia Canada Finland U.S. Germany Japan China 1 Icebreaker = 8-10 years lead-time + ~$1 billion

  8. Natural Gas-to-Oil Ratio 3:1 http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Ronning.pdf - Statoil’s Arctic Assessment

  9. When would Arctic E&P be attractive? • High Oil Prices • Ice-capable technology • Increased geopolitical tensions in shipping chokepoints • Sense of clear delineation of boundaries and legal frameworks

  10. The Big Picture Arctic states appear committed to cooperation and are likely to build capacity of existing frameworks Commercial and strategic benefits are real but distant Arctic remains strategically important in the long-run, with multiple potential flashpoints which can be mitigated by focus on cooperation

  11. Recommendations for the United States • US must be able to be active and project influence in the Arctic region year-round and in any conditions • Ratify UNCLOS • Invest $2 billion for 2 new icebreakers and $1 billion for maintenance of existing icebreakers in the interim • Encourage research on ice-capable technologies through public-private partnerships

  12. Contact cebinger@brookings.edu ezambetakis@brookings.edu

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