Lecture 23: The Post-Cold War World Ends

1. Lecture 23: The Post-Cold War World Ends March 2, 2009

2. A New Approach to Foreign Policy • Realism—the old way • Deal with the world as it is • States seek security • Domestic character of states not important • Cautious in use of military • International institutions can be effective • Neoconservatism • Morality should drive foreign policy • Internal character of states drives behavior • Use military proactively • United States as “benevolent hegemon” • Distrust of international institutions

3. Defense Planning Guidance, 1992 “The U.S must show the leadership necessary to establish and protect a new order that holds the promise of convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests…we must maintain the mechanisms for deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role."

4. US interests threatened by… • “access to vital raw materials, primarily Persian Gulf oil; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, threats to U.S. citizens from terrorism or regional or local conflict, and threats to U.S. society from narcotics trafficking.” • Coalitions “hold considerable promise for promoting collective action…” but “we should expect future coalitions to be ad hoc assemblies, often not lasting beyond the crisis being confronted, and in many cases carrying only general agreement over the objectives to be accomplished…the United States should be postured to act independently when collective action cannot be orchestrated”

5. PNAC Statement of Principles, 1997 • "We seem to have forgotten the essential elements of the Reagan administration's success: a military that is strong and ready to meet both present and future challenges; a foreign policy that boldly and purposefully promotes American principles abroad; and national leadership that accepts the U.S. global responsibilities." • “the history of the 20th century should have taught us that it is important to shape circumstances before crises emerge, and to meet threats before they become dire.”

6. Signatories to the PNAC • Dick Cheney • Donald Rumsfeld • I. Lewis Libby • Paul Wolfowitz • Zalmay Khalilzad • Jeb Bush • Dan Quayle • Francis Fukuyama • Gary Bauer • Richard Perle • William Kristol • John Bolton • Charles Krauthammer • Robert Zoellick

7. Origins of al-Qaeda • Inspiration from anti-Colonial movements • Arab-Israeli wars, Palestinian refugees • Lack of political freedom in Middle East • Failed development • Failure of Arab Nationalism after Six-day War (1967) • Islamist alternative: Sayyid Qutb, Muslim Brotherhood • Iranian Revolution • Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

8. Afghanistan in the 1990s • Rich Saudis radicalize the rebellion • Soviets withdrew: mission accomplished • Mujahidin fight a civil war • Taliban emerge and dominate

9. Taliban

10. Enter Osama bin Laden • Came from wealthy family • Joined jihad, radicalized • Created al-Qaeda to continue the struggle • Financier of terrorist groups • Kicked out of Saudi Arabia, Sudan, fled to Afghanistan

11. Understanding al-Qaeda • As organization (hierarchy, division of labor) • As social movement (loose structure united by common goals, allegiance) • Ideology: resistance movement representing Muslims everywhere

12. Bin Laden’s Threats • The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. • Bin Laden, 1998 • “We have the right to kill 4 million Americans—2 million of them children—and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands.” • Bin Laden’s spokesman, 2002

13. 1998 1996 2000 2001